热气候指数评价中国南方城市夏季舒适度

利用南方14个城市1981-2013年6-9月的逐日气象资料,根据生物环境特点,制定了基于通用热气候指数的新评价方法,对中国南方城市夏季舒适度进行评价研究。结果表明:中国南方城市的高温不舒适天数近33 a来以3.4 d/10a的速度增加,并有5 a震荡周期。舒适度排名显示,体感温度最高的4个城市分别为重庆、福州、南昌和长沙,杭州与重庆的体感舒适度下降速率较快。对比高温不舒适天数和高温日数发现,两者具有很好的一致性,证明了高温不舒适度与气温关系的密切性。同时,由于热气候指标计算要素的多重考虑,结果与高温日数存在一些差异,但其更具有一定参考和应用价值。     

Study on the extremely cold winter of 1670 over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

The snow-cover days over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River （MLRYR） in the winter of 1670 were extracted from Chinese historical documents. By these records, the winter temperature anomalies （compared to the mean of 1961-1990） recorded at seven meteorological stations and the regional mean winter temperature were estimated. The results show that： （1） There was an average of about 30 snow-cover days over the MLRYR region in 1670, ranging from 11-20 days in Shanghai and eastern Zhejiang to 5140 days in eastern Hunan Province. The snow-cover days averaged about 40 days in Anqing and Nan- cheng, and ranged from 30 to 40 days in Quzhou, Jingdezhen, and Nanchang; and （2） the regional mean winter temperature in 1670 was estimated to be approximately 4.0 ℃ lower than that of 1961-1990. The maximum negative anomaly of 5.6℃ occurred in Nanchang and the minimum anomaly of-2.8 ℃ was detected in Quzhou. Both of these were lower than that of the coldest winter during the instrumental observation period of 1951-2010. This research could not only provide a method to es- timate historical climate extremes, but also provide a background to understand the recent instrumentally climate extremes.     

绵阳市度日数特征及其变化趋势分析

从20世纪50年代以来,度日数一直作为气候变化与供暖关系的一个综合评价指标。基于全球变暖可能对我国供暖天数和温度产生深刻的影响,本文采用绵阳市1946~2005年共49年的日最低、最高气温资料,分析了绵阳市度日数年变化特征,并对其进行了趋势分析。结果表明:绵阳市历年供暖度日数最小值处于1998年,比1976年最大值低93.5%,10a年均供暖度日数变化趋势为二次曲线;制冷度日数波动性很大,1960~1979年在1500℃·d左右波动,1979~1990年在1400℃·d左右波动,1990年以后基本处于1500℃·d以上,10a年均制冷度日数拟合趋势曲线为三次曲线。基于Mann-Kendall(M-K)检验法,在α=0.05水平下,对绵阳市供暖和制冷度日数进行检验,研究发现:供暖度日数明显减少,1992年为突变起始年份;制冷度日数波动增长,且自1997年起突变。     

雷电定位系统与人工观测雷暴日数统计比较

为了利用雷电定位系统 (lightning location system,LLS) 资料统计人工观测雷暴日数,采用湖北省2007—2012年LLS监测资料,选取25个气象站为圆心,统计其不同监测半径 (r) 圆区域内LLS监测的雷电日数,并与人工观测雷暴日数进行比较。结果表明:r≤7 km时,LLS监测平均年雷电日数小于人工观测平均年雷暴日数;r≥8 km时, LLS监测平均年雷电日数大于人工观测平均年雷暴日数;r=22 km圆区域内年平均雷电日数可替代最大年雷暴日数。根据r=7 km,r=8 km圆区域内LLS监测的年雷电日数、年平均地闪密度资料,分别采用直接替代法、地闪密度法和该文提出的二元法计算年雷暴日数,结果显示:二元法效果最好。二元法计算的2007—2012年25个站平均年雷暴日数与人工观测相等,平均差异为7.4%;二元法计算的2013年年雷暴日数与人工观测相差0.8 d,平均差异为12.3%。     

哈尔滨雾霾天气候特征

利用哈尔滨地面气象观测数据,对1961-2010年哈尔滨雾霾天气候特征进行分析,得出:1961-2010年,哈尔滨的雾霾天经历了一个减少-增多-减少的过程;哈尔滨市雾霾天气出现较频繁,有四到五成的日子会有雾霾天气出现,雾霾天以烟幕和轻雾天为主;雾霾天冬季出现最多,其次秋季,春、夏季较少;雾生多在凌晨3-6时,消多在清晨5-9时;持续时间多4 h(占有记录的雾持续时间81%)。     

中国降雪气候学特征

利用逐日地面降雪观测资料,分析中国25oN以北范围内降雪量、降雪日数、雪带分布和各强度降雪的气候学特征,得到以下结论:①雪季长度与年降雪日数在东部呈纬向分布,大兴安岭北部最长(>210 d),长江以南最短(常年无雪或偶尔降雪);在西部青海省南部和西藏自治区北部最长(>300 d),滇、川、藏交界处及新疆自治区北部较长,南疆较短(<60 d)。年降雪量东南部最少,东北和西北北部较多(>30 mm),青海和西藏降雪量最多(>60 mm)。平均降雪强度江淮一带最大。②根据雪季降雪频次划分中国的雪带,东北大部、内蒙自治区东部、新疆北部、青藏高原大部、秦岭等地区为常年多雪带;长江以南的滇南、四川盆地、江浙沿海等地区为永久无雪带;其余地区为常年降雪带和偶尔降雪带。③不同区域各级降雪日数占总降雪日数的比例都是暴雪日数最少,大雪日数其次,小雪日数最多;但中雪降雪量占总降雪量的比例在东北北部、华北、西北、新疆、东南、青藏高原东部等区域仅高于小雪降雪量,而在黄-淮地区仅次于暴雪降雪量。④降雪年内分配在东北北部、西北、新疆、青藏高原东部等地区都呈双峰型,最多雪时节在早冬和晚冬、早春,隆冬时节并不是降雪最多时间,黄-淮和东南地区呈单峰型,东南地区峰值更陡。⑤总降雪日数和除暴雪外的各等级降雪日数与地理位置关系较明显,在中国东部主要随着纬度升高增加,在中国西部随海拔高度增加而增加;随着纬度升高,东部和西部的总降雪强度都减小,西部的小雪强度也减小。     

Changing Trends of Daily Temperature Extremes with Different Intensities in China

By comparing two sets of quality-controlled daily temperature observation data with and without the inhomogeneity test and adjustment from 654 stations in China during 1956-2004 and 1956-2010, impacts of inhomogeneity on changing trends of four percentile temperature extreme indices, including occurrences of cold days, cold nights, warm days, and warm nights with varying intensities, were discussed. It is found that the inhomogeneity affected the long-term trends averaged over extensive regions limitedly. In order to minimize the inhomogeneity impact, the 83 stations identified with obvious inhomogeneity impacts were removed, and an updated analysis of changing trends of the four temperature extreme indices with varying intensities during 1956-2010 was conducted. The results show that annual occurrences of both cold nights and cold days decreased greatly while those of warm nights and warm days increased significantly during the recent 20 years. The more extreme the event is, the greater the magnitude of changing trends for the temperature extreme index is. An obvious increasing trend was observed in annual occurrences of cold days and cold nights in the recent four years. The magnitude of changing trends of warm extreme indices was greater than that of cold extreme indices, and it was greater in northern China than in southern China. Trends for summer occurrence of cold days were not significant. Decreasing trends of occurrences of both cold nights and cold days were the greatest in December, January, and February (DJF) but the least in June, July, and August (JJA), while increasing trends of warm nights were the greatest in JJA. Cold nights significantly decreased from 1956 to 1990, and then the decreasing trend considerably weakened. The decreasing trend also showed an obvious slowdown in recent years for occurrence of cold days. However, increasing trends of warm nights and warm days both have been accelerated continuously since the recent decades. Further analysis presents that the evolution of the trends for occurrences of the four temperature extreme indices was dominated by the changes in northern China.     

气象干旱时空表达方式的探讨

为了对气象干旱时空表达方式进行探讨,提出了气象干旱时间面积函数的概念及其表达式MD(Meteorological Drought),并利用1952年1月1日-2010年5月31日云南省全部站点逐日降水、气温观测数据计算得到的干旱CI指数,计算和分析了MD的时间分布。结果表明:(1)MD可客观、准确地表达近60年来云南发生干旱的过程和强度,解决了以往确定气象干旱事件时对持续时间和面积大小界定的主观性和不确定性,MD不仅可以完整地描述和比较有气象记录以来历史上的干旱事件,还可以连续滚动描述每个干旱过程的演变;(2)MD计算结果表明,1952-2010年云南干旱较严重的年份是:1959,1963,1966,1969,1974,1979,1984和2010年,其中,2010年为近60年来最旱的一年,干旱发生的时间比其他干旱较严重年份平均提前了90天左右,形成秋、冬、春和初夏连旱的罕见气候事件。     

雷击地闪密度与雷暴日数的关系分析

根据美国卫星观测得到的我国各省区年平均总闪电资料并计算出各省区的年平均地闪密度(以下简称地闪密度);根据全国各省区220个站点的年平均雷暴日资料,按照<建筑物防雷设计规范>GB50057-94(2000年版)(以下简称<规范>)公式计算出全国各省区的地闪密度.比较两种方法得出的地闪密度,发现存在较大的差异,且不同区域差异变化很大.用单位雷暴日地闪密度概念,分析了我国各地单位雷暴日地闪密度的差异及其原因,指出单位雷暴日地闪密度能粗略反映与我国气候特征相适应的地闪密度的分布状况.进一步分析湖州市2007年人工观测和闪电定位仪观测的闪电资料,得到相同的结论.从而提出<规范>规定的地闪密度计算公式存在较大误差,应对其进行进一步的修订和完善.