利用前兆事件对云南地区地震进行中短期预测研究

对某些类型的主震事件, 进行中短期预测也许是可能的. 利用Varnes, Bufe和Varnes提出的破裂时间法模拟前兆地震能量加速释放模型,通过实际观测资料与理论公式的拟合, 可以建立主地震事件的中短期预测技术, 用以确定表示主震的地点、时间和震级大小. 本文使用的是云南区域台网的地震目录资料,覆盖的时间段为1965~2002年. 统计分析表明,在此37年时间内,等于或大于2.5级地震资料是相当完整的. 本文对云南地区的30次主震事件进行了模拟,其中25次主震事件由前兆序列模拟得到的预测时间和震级与实际值相当接近,主震震级预测精度约0.57个震级单位,假定已知前兆序列中最后一次事件,则预测主震发生时间误差约0.64年.对另外的5次主震事件,由于没有足够的前兆事件来充分确定前兆能量加速曲线或是存在对能量加速释放曲线的干扰事件,而不能进行破裂时间法模拟.本文的研究结果还表明,由于云南是破坏性地震和中小地震活跃的地区,因此,主地震与前兆事件最佳搜索半径不存在明显的线性关系.主震矩与系数k,m之间存在强烈的相关性,利用主震地震矩与系数的关系和限制指数m的取值范围,可进一步缩小预测时间和预测震级的最佳拟合区范围,提高了模拟主震事件的预测精度. 本文采用破裂时间法对30次主震事件进行拟合,80％以上获得了较好的结果. 显示出该方法在预测已知主震事件序列的能力方面大有希望,因此,利用前兆事件对未来主震事件进行中短期预测的前景是令人鼓舞的.     

Validation of ground‐motion simulations for historical events using MDoF systems

The study presented in this paper addresses the issue of engineering validation of Graves and Pitarka's (2010) hybrid broadband ground motion simulation methodology with respect to some well‐recorded historical events and considering the response of multiple degrees of freedom (MDoF) systems. Herein, validation encompasses detailed assessment of how similar is, for a given event, the seismic response due to comparable hybrid broadband simulated records and real records. In the first part of this study, in order to investigate the dynamic response of a wide range of buildings, MDoF structures are modeled as elastic continuum systems consisting of a combination of a flexural cantilever beam coupled with a shear cantilever beam. A number of such continuum systems are selected including the following: (1) 16 oscillation periods between 0.1 and 6 s; (2) three shear to flexural deformation ratios to represent respectively shear‐wall structures, dual systems, and moment‐resisting frames; and (3) two stiffness distributions along the height of the systems, that is, uniform and linear. Demand spectra in terms of generalized maximum interstory drift ratio (IDR) and peak floor acceleration (PFA) are derived using simulations and actual recordings for four historical earthquakes, namely, the 1979 M_w 6.5 Imperial Valley earthquake, 1989 M_w 6.8 Loma Prieta earthquake, 1992 M_w 7.2 Landers earthquake, and 1994 M_w 6.7 Northridge earthquake. In the second part, for two nonlinear case study structures, the IDR and PFA distributions over the height and their statistics, are obtained and compared for both recorded and simulated time histories. These structures are steel moment frames designed for high seismic hazard, 20‐story high‐rise and 6‐story low‐rise buildings. The results from this study highlight the similarities and differences between simulated and real records in terms of median and intra‐event standard deviation of logs of seismic demands for MDoF building systems. This general agreement, in a broad range of moderate and long periods, may provide confidence in the use of the simulation methodology for engineering applications, whereas the discrepancies, statistically significant only at short periods, may help in addressing improvements in generation of synthetic records. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

回溯时间积分格式的有效性研究

采月正压准地转模式作为动力核,用Rossby-Haurwitz波函数作为理想场,同时使用回溯时间积分格式和普通中央差格式进行数值试验.结果表明,在短时积分的情况下,回溯格式能减小数值解误差1～2个量级,而且它对时间步长的增大不敏感.因此使用回溯格式可以减少积分计算量,延长积分时效.     

时频测控技术的发展

目前，在所有的物理量中时间与频率标准的物理实现具有最高的准确度和稳定度，它们的发展不但在计量技术中，而且在几乎整个高科技领域中起着十分重要的作用。这方面的发展一直受到发达国家的高度重视。根据近年来与国外同行的技术交流和了解的情况，对时频测控技术的发展和影响等作了介绍。     

低速冲击下高强钢绞线网-高性能砂浆加固钢筋混凝土梁试验研究

研究了高强钢绞线网-高性能砂浆加固钢筋混凝土梁的抗低速冲击性能,利用落锤冲击试验法对4根简支钢筋混凝土梁进行对比试验研究,其中1根为普通梁,3根为加固梁,通过分析加固前后梁的破坏形态,结合挠度变化、钢筋的应变以及加速度的时程曲线,对比得到了钢筋混凝土梁加固后的抗冲击性能。研究结果表明：加固后钢筋混凝土梁的抗冲击能力显著提高,钢绞线和砂浆作为外加层,不仅增加了梁的抗弯剪能力和刚度,提高了结构的耗能能力,而且限制了裂缝的发展,使梁的整体性和延性更好;在相同冲击作用下,钢绞线直径的增加能适当提高结构的抗冲击性能。     

Poynting and polarization vectors based wavefield decomposition and their application on elastic reverse time migration in 2D transversely isotropic media

With the progress in computational power and seismic acquisition, elastic reverse time migration is becoming increasingly feasible and helpful in characterizing the physical properties of subsurface structures. To achieve high-resolution seismic imaging using elastic reverse time migration, it is necessary to separate the compressional (P-wave) and shear (S-wave) waves for both isotropic and anisotropic media. In elastic isotropic media, the conventional method for wave-mode separation is to use the divergence and curl operators. However, in anisotropic media, the polarization direction of P waves is not exactly parallel to the direction of wave propagation. Also, the polarization direction of S-waves is not totally perpendicular to the direction of wave propagation. For this reason, the conventional divergence and curl operators show poor performance in anisotropic media. Moreover, conventional methods only perform well in the space domain of regular grids, and they are not suitable for elastic numerical simulation algorithms based on non-regular grids. Besides, these methods distort the original wavefield by taking spatial derivatives. In this case, a new anisotropic wave-mode separation scheme is developed using Poynting vectors. This scheme can be performed in the angle domain by constructing the relationship between group and polarization angles of different wave modes. Also, it is performed pointwise, independent of adjacent space points, suitable for parallel computing. Moreover, there is no need to correct the changes in phase and amplitude caused by the derivative operators. By using this scheme, the anisotropic elastic reverse time migration is more efficiently performed on the unstructured mesh. The effectiveness of our scheme is verified by several numerical examples.     

Map errors that could account for deviations from a uniform intensity of land change

Intensity Analysis is a mathematical framework that compares a uniform intensity to observed intensities of temporal changes among categories. Our article summarizes Intensity Analysis and presents a new method to compute the minimum hypothetical error in the data that could account for each observed deviation from a uniform intensity. A larger hypothetical error gives stronger evidence against a hypothesis that a change is uniform. The method produces results for five groups of measurements, which are organized into three levels of analysis: interval, category, and transition. The method applies generally to analysis of changes among categories during time intervals, because the input is a standard contingency table for each time interval. We illustrate the method with a case study concerning change during three time intervals among four land categories in northeastern Massachusetts, USA. Modelers can perform the analysis using our computer program, which is free.     

叠前时间偏移在华北地区的应用

从应用的角度较详细地论述了三维叠前克希霍夫时间偏移的过程。在给定合理的偏移孔径下,三维叠前克希霍夫时间偏移利用均方根速度对叠前地震数据进行逐道处理,从而得到准确的归位数据。叠前时间偏移相对叠后时间偏移而言,前者能够进一步提高地下信息的成像质量及归位准确性,信噪比和分辨率也得到了改善,能够满足精细的地震资料的解释。因此,三维叠前克希霍夫时间偏移对于速度变化平缓、地下构造较复杂的地区具有广泛的应用价值。     

基于耐震时程法的进水塔结构抗震性能分析

进水塔结构作为水电站的进水建筑物,其抗震性能对水电站的安全运行有重要意义.以沙牌水电站的高耸独立进水塔结构为研究对象,应用3条耐震时程曲线对其进行抗震性能分析与评估,并将计算结果与天然地震动下的增量动力分析结果进行比较,对比分析进水塔塔顶位移、基底剪力及地震损伤历程.实例研究表明:耐震时程法可以较好地分析结构的抗震响应...     

蒙城地震台地磁Z分量日变化特征分析

利用蒙城地震台近20年的地磁Z分量观测资料,对磁静日幅度、磁扰日幅度和磁静日低点时间的年变化与长期变化进行了分析,结果表明,Z分量日变化特征明显。由此总结出Z分量变化的一些基本特征,对识别地磁场异常变化或干扰变化具有一定的参考价值。