Generalized extreme value shape parameter and its nature for extreme precipitation using long time series and the Bayesian approach

Assessing the probability of extreme precipitation events is consequential in civil planning. This requires an understanding of how return values change with return periods, which is essentially described by the generalized extreme value (GEV) shape parameter. Some works in the field suggest a constant shape parameter, while our analysis indicates a non-universal value. We re-analysed an older precipitation dataset (169 stations) extended by Norwegian data (71 stations). We showed that while each set seems to have a constant shape parameter, it differs between the two datasets, indicating regional differences. For a more comprehensive analysis of spatial effects, we examined a global dataset (1495 stations). We provided shape parameter maps for two models and found clear evidence that the shape parameter depends on elevation, while the effect of latitude remains uncertain. Our results confirm an explanation in terms of dominating precipitation systems based on a proxy derived from the Köppen-Geiger climate classification.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Determination of the particle load based on detailed suspended sediment measurements at a hydropower plant

Suspended sediment particles contained in inflows of water systems of hydropower plants (HPPs) cause hydro-abrasive erosion of the hydraulic turbines and structures leading to significant maintenance costs, efficiency reductions, and downtime. Relevant parameters such as suspended sediment concentration (SSC), particle size distribution (PSD), shape, and mineralogical composition were measured with an online multi-frequency acoustic instrument and based on manually taken samples from the end of the sand trap of the Toss HPP in the Himalayan region, India. In the laboratory, the samples were analyzed using the gravimetric method, laser diffraction, turbidity, dynamic digital image processing, scanning electron microscope, petrography analysis, energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, and X-ray diffraction. The online instrument and the samples provided measurement results at a single point. To investigate vertical gradients in concentration and particle sizes, additional samples were collected 9 times at 7 relative water depths. The SSC, most particle sizes, and particle shape were found to be evenly distributed over depth except d90, i.e. the diameter which is not exceeded by 90% of the particle mass. d90 measured at 76% of the water depth was in the range of fine sand and was multiplied by 1.05 to obtain an average value representative for the entire depth. Improved methodologies to quantify both particle shape and size in an analytical model for hydro-abrasive erosion are proposed. Also, the PSD measuring performance of laser diffraction and dynamic imaging was studied and similar values of the median particle sizes were obtained from both instruments. Further, multi-frequency acoustic, turbidity and laser diffraction techniques were found suitable for SSC measurement at the test case HPP.     

Rock physics modelling of porous rocks with multiple pore types: a multiple-porosity variable critical porosity model

A critical porosity model establishes the empirical relationship between a grain matrix and a dry rock by the concept of critical porosity. The model is simple and practical and widely used. But the critical porosity in the model is a fixed value that cannot relate to pore structure. The aim of this paper is to establish the theoretical relationship between critical porosity and pore structure by combining Kuster–Toksöz theory with the critical porosity model. Different from the traditional critical porosity model, critical porosity is not an empirical value but varied with pore shape and the ratio of bulk modulus versus shear modulus of the grain matrix. The substitution of the theoretical relationship into Kuster–Toksöz theory will generate the formulae for the bulk and shear moduli of multiple-porosity dry rocks, which is named the multiple-porosity variable critical porosity model. The new model has been used to predict elastic moduli for sandstone and carbonate rock. We compare the modelling results for P- and S-wave velocities and elastic moduli with the experimental data. The comparison shows that the new model can be used to describe the elastic properties for the rocks with multiple pore types.     

钙质砂颗粒形状及破碎特性试验研究

单颗粒强度及形状是影响钙质砂强度、变形和破碎的重要因素。以0.5～1.0 mm和1.0～2.0 mm粒径范围的钙质砂颗粒为研究对象,开展了颗粒形状及尺寸分类统计和单颗粒破碎试验,研究了力—位移关系、单颗粒强度—平均粒径关系和单颗粒破碎能量。结果表明：块状颗粒是钙质砂的主要形状颗粒,粒径较大颗粒的形状不规则程度较高。块状颗粒的破碎过程根据力—位移关系曲线中第一次颗粒破碎力、颗粒破碎峰值力和颗粒完全破碎力出现位置的不同分成5种情况,以颗粒发生多次破碎为特征的情况Ⅰ和情况Ⅱ出现次数最多,其余情况仅在0.5～1.0 mm粒径范围的颗粒中出现。单颗粒强度随平均粒径的增大而减小,1.0～2.0 mm和0.5～1.0 mm粒径范围的单颗粒强度分形维数分别为2.95和1.53,粒径较大的钙质砂颗粒更容易破碎。提出了钙质砂单颗粒破碎能量的简化计算公式,1.0～2.0 mm粒径范围的单颗粒破碎能量较0.5～1.0 mm的更大。     

任意三角形毛细管中水力传导率与形状因子关系研究

孔隙级网络模型可以用简单几何体来代表真实的孔隙孔喉,以分析流体在这些简单几何体中的流动,具有重要的意义。利用有限元法对任意三角形截面管中的单相和油水两相流动的速度场进行了求解,后由速度场进一步计算出了水力传导率。研究了水力传导率与形状因子之间的关系,结果表明,单相流水力传导率与形状因子近似呈直线关系,而油水两相流时,水力传导率除与形状因子有关外,还随着角落半角和油水接触角的变化而变化。     

山地地形对鼓浪屿历史文化街区风荷载作用效应研究

山地环境中的街区风荷载与平地条件下有明显不同。鼓浪屿历史文化街区处于台风易发地区,对其开展山地环境下风载作用效应的研究对科学保护历史建筑非常必要。本文以鼓浪屿历史文化街区为研究对象,运用ANSYS Fluent进行数值分析山地地形对鼓浪屿风场与风荷载体型系数的影响并提出对该地区已有建筑防风保护与建筑选址的建议。表明:(1)鼓浪屿的高风速、极值加速比、极值负压和极值风荷载体型系数均集中分布在成十字相交的两轴线的各山顶,两轴线是核心线性防风区域,龙头山、鸡母山和笔架山山顶为防风重点。(2)龙头山山顶近地面处加速比最大,对应产生极值风荷载体型系数。(3)两轴线的横风向加速比均大于顺风向,山顶加速效应大于峡谷侧风面大于峡谷底处。(4)山顶处数值模拟得到的风荷载体型系数与规范值差距不大,峡谷处由规范得出的修正系数较数值模拟值偏小。(5)海拔较低的迎风面和背风面山脚风速低,适合建筑选址。龙头山、鸡母山和笔架山山顶区为高风速频发且极值负压产生的区域,是加强建筑检修与维护、提高防风性能的重点,不宜作为建设选址。     

Dynamics of shoreline and land reclamation from 1985 to 2015 in the Bohai Sea,China

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Extraction and analysis of the shoreline and land reclamation patterns are important for studies on topics such as the dynamics of coastal wetland ecological...     

Hydrodynamic shape optimization by high fidelity CFD solver and Gaussian process based response surface method

A computational framework for hydrodynamic shape optimization of complex ship hull form is proposed and applied to improve the calm water performance of the KRISO Container Ship (KCS). The framework relies on three key features: a novel shape morphing method based on a combination of subdivision surfaces and free form deformations, a robust three dimensional viscous computational fluid dynamic solver based on the openFOAM open-source libraries and a Gaussian process-response surface method (GP-RSM) based on ordinary Kriging model which has been created to speed-up the evaluation of the quantity of interest (QoI) of the design process.The accuracy of the hydrodynamic solver is proven by comparing the obtained results against available experimental measurements. A preliminary sensitivity analysis on the mesh size has been carried out aiming at reducing the computational burden required by the CFD predictions. Three GP-RSMs have been trained relying on increasing number of hull designs. Each surrogate model has been cross-validated by both leave-one-out and k-fold techniques. The behaviours of these multi-dimensional surfaces have been analyzed in details by sampling the investigated design space with 10⁷ points according to a Full-Factorial algorithm, highlighting the regions of maximum deviation with respect to the resistance of the reference hull. The three optimum designs provided by the corresponding GP-RSM models have been verified by using high-fidelity CFD simulations with a refined mesh configuration. Calm water resistance, wave patterns and pressure distributions over the selected hull surfaces have been discussed in the light of the generated shape variations.     

基于多摄像头监控的人体跌倒检测算法

人口老龄化使得空巢老人数量越来越多。跌倒作为威胁独居老人生命安全的主要因素受到了社会的广泛关注。为保护老人的生命健康不受威胁,本文提出一种基于计算机视觉的两级人体跌倒检测算法。从监控摄像机中采集视频数据,对其做前景提取,通过形态学操作为前景块绘制矩形边界,根据矩形宽高比从中筛选出所有可能是跌倒的行为,这是粗粒度级检测。之后再用统计学方法对第一级检测出的前景块绘制椭圆边界,分析其形态变化,最终检测出跌倒行为,这是细粒度级检测。本文在开源多摄像头跌倒数据集上进行了评估。仿真实验和与当前的先进方法的对比表明本文算法取得了非常好的效果。     

Analyses of egg size,otolith shape,and growth revealed two components of small yellow croaker in Haizhou Bay spawning stock

The geographical variations in life history characteristics of small yellow croaker Larimichthys polyactis, caused by experienced different environmental conditions, have been observed in China seas. Previous studies based on spatial distribution, migration route, and body morphometrics suggested a complex stock structure. In this study, to clarify the source of a spawning stock, we investigated the reproduction strategy and inter-structure of the Haizhou Bay (HZB) spawning stock in the middle Yellow Sea from both egg survey and adult otolith increment analysis. Egg and adult samples were collected from three surveys during spawning season in 2013. Distinct spatial and temporal variations were detected in egg distribution and size, and otolith shape analysis of adult fishes revealed two morphotypes with different increment growth using random forest cluster. The results indicate the existence of two components within the same spawning stock in HZB from different wintering grounds, and accordingly special protection should be required for this stock given the significance to maintain connectivity between adjacent subpopulations.