浙江主要气象灾害概述

气象灾害每年都有,只是轻重程度不同。就全国和全省范围来说,很少有真正风调雨顺的年份。本文根据1951～1988年38年的气象历史资料及有关政府部门的材料、简报、报道,统计出台风、洪涝、海上大风和强对流等几种主要气象灾害对浙江经济造成损失和伤亡人数。文中对主要气象灾害的特点、一般规律和灾情作了概述,并列出一些典型实例,提出了预防气象灾害的意见。     

A large class of non-zonal oceanic flows satisfying the arnold-blumen sufficient condition for stability

Abstract

Recently Andrews has discussed an example of a topographically-forced non-zonal now satisfying the Arnold-Blumen sufficient condition for stability. At large distances from the topographic centre this flow becomes purely zonal and westward. After underlining the richness of solutions of the Andrews model, the present paper goes on to show that Andrews' technique can be applied successfully to a model where the vertical profile of static stability resembles those found in the ocean. In particular we obtain a large class of hydrodynamic stable flows, forced by the bottom topography, for continuously stratified fluids (two layers each with uniform Brunt-Väisälä frequency).     

Penetrative convection in rotating fluids: A model for the base of stellar convection zones

Abstract

To model penetrative convection at the base of a stellar convection zone we consider two plane parallel, co-rotating Boussinesq layers coupled at their fluid interface. The system is such that the upper layer is unstable to convection while the lower is stable. Following the method of Kondo and Unno (1982, 1983) we calculate critical Rayleigh numbers R_c for a wide class of parameters. Here, R_c is typically much less than in the case of a single layer, although the scaling R_c～T^2/3 as T → ∞ still holds, where T is the usual Taylor number. With parameters relevant to the Sun the helicity profile is discontinuous at the interface, and dominated by a large peak in a thin boundary layer beneath the convecting region. In reality the distribution is continuous, but the sharp transition associated with a rapid decline in the effective viscosity in the overshoot region is approximated by a discontinuity here. This source of helicity and its relation to an alpha effect in a mean-field dynamo is especially relevant since it is a generally held view that the overshoot region is the location of magnetic field generation in the Sun.     

Convection in rotating annular channels heated from below. Part 1. Linear stability and weakly nonlinear mean flows

Convection in a Boussinesq fluid in an annular channel rotating about a vertical axis with lateral rigid sidewalls, stress-free top and bottom, uniformly heated from below is investigated. The sidewalls are assumed to be either perfectly insulating or conducting. Three different types of convection are identified when the channel is rotating sufficiently fast: (i) global oscillatory convection preferred for small Prandtl numbers in channels with intermediate or large aspect ratios (width to height ratio), (ii) wall-localized oscillatory convection representing the most unstable mode for moderate or large Prandtl numbers in channels with intermediate or large aspect ratios and (iii) global stationary convection preferred in channels with sufficiently small aspect ratios regardless of the size of the Prandtl number. The corresponding weakly nonlinear problem describing differential rotation and meridional circulation is also examined, showing that geostrophic, multiple-peaked (two prograde and two retrograde) differential rotation can be maintained by the Reynolds stresses in wall-localized convective eddies in a rapidly rotating channel.     

The influence of thermochemical convection on the fixity of mantle plumes

A general feature of both isochemical and thermochemical studies of mantle convection is that horizontal plume velocities tend to be smaller than typical convective velocities, however, it is not clear which system leads to a greater fixity of mantle plumes. We perform two- and three-dimensional numerical calculations and compare both thermochemical and isochemical cases with similar convective vigor to determine whether presence of a dense component in the mantle can lead to smaller ratios of horizontal plume velocity to surface velocity. We investigate different viscosity and density contrasts between chemical components in the thermochemical calculations, and we perform isochemical calculations with both free-slip and no-slip bottom boundary conditions. We then compare both visually and quantitatively the results of the thermochemical and isochemical calculations to determine which leads to greater plume fixity. We find that horizontal plume velocities for thermochemical calculations are similar to those from isochemical calculations with no-slip bottom boundary conditions. In addition, we find that plumes tend to be more fixed for isochemical cases with free-slip bottom boundary conditions for two-dimensional calculations, however, in three dimensions, we find that plume fixity is similar to that observed in thermochemical calculations.     

瑞利数对热对流的影响——在地幔柱中的应用

本文分别在直角坐标系和柱坐标系下,研究瑞利数从104逐渐增大到107对热对流的影响,数值计算结果表明:瑞利数越大,地幔柱越窄,地幔柱上升速度也越快;源自上地幔的地幔柱半径的范围为90到210 km.根据峨眉山内带的半径推算出地幔的黏性系数约为3.8×1021 Pa·s,地幔柱平均流动速度为2.5 cm/a.     

Verification of short-term runoff forecasts for a small Philippine basin (Marikina)

Storm runoff from the Marikina River Basin frequently causes flood events in the Philippine capital region Metro Manila. This paper presents and evaluates a system to predict short-term runoff from the upper part of that basin (380 km²). It was designed as a possible component of an operational warning system yet to be installed. For the purpose of forecast verification, hindcasts of streamflow were generated for a period of 15 months with a time-continuous, conceptual hydrological model. The latter was fed with real-time observations of rainfall. Both ground observations and weather radar data were tested as rainfall forcings. The radar-based precipitation estimates clearly outperformed the raingauge-based estimates in the hydrological verification. Nevertheless, the quality of the deterministic short-term runoff forecasts was found to be limited. For the radar-based predictions, the reduction of variance for lead times of 1, 2 and 3 hours was 0.61, 0.62 and 0.54, respectively, with reference to a “no-forecast” scenario, i.e. persistence. The probability of detection for major increases in streamflow was typically less than 0.5. Given the significance of flood events in the Marikina Basin, more effort needs to be put into the reduction of forecast errors and the quantification of remaining uncertainties.     

飑线对定点地形变观测的影响特征与机理——以陕西关中盆地为例

2013年7月31日～8月1日陕西关中盆地爆发了一次强飑线灾害性天气过程,为揭示此次飑线生命史期间对定点地形变观测的影响特征与机理,本文结合多普勒天气雷达和气象资料,系统分析了关中盆地内4个地形变观测数据。结果表明:(1)飑线过境时的短时气压突变是造成定点地形变的主要原因,引起最大的地倾斜和地应变分别达9.70×10~(-3″)和21.02×10~(-9);(2)气压变幅与地形变的弹性响应量具有较好的线性关系,二者持续时间较一致,为2～4h,其中,钻孔体应变的动态气压系数达4.04×10~(-9)/h Pa;(3)宝鸡、乾陵和华阴台对飑线的响应能力较好,西安台则较差;(4)除水管仪外,垂直摆、洞体应变和钻孔体应变等对飑线的响应均较为灵敏。上述结果有助于合理识别和科学推定飑线所导致定点地形变异常变化的物理本质,进而减少实际业务中的误判;同时,还能为定点地形变观测台站的科学选址、仪器的优化布设及不同空间尺度大气负荷模型的实证等提供重要的参考依据。     

“6·23”江苏阜宁EF4级龙卷超级单体风暴中尺度结构研究

2016年6月23日14—15时,江苏省阜宁县突遭"增强藤田"4级龙卷、强风、短时强降水和冰雹等强对流天气,致使99人罹难,800多人受伤,属极其罕见的极端天气事件.本文利用加密自动站数据、探空数据、单部雷达观测数据以及双多普勒雷达三维风场反演数据,研究了此次龙卷发生的天气背景、龙卷超级单体的三维结构及其演变特征.研究表明：（1）龙卷发生期间,阜宁处于地面暖湿舌内、地面有γ中尺度气旋和辐合线;环境大气抬升凝结高度很低、中低层有很强的水平风的垂直切变;这有利于龙卷的生成.（2）此次龙卷超级单体左移风暴的低层有钩状回波和入流缺口,有界弱回波区位于垂直剖面中低层、悬垂回波位于风暴前部高层.（3）龙卷发生前,风暴质心高度、最大反射率因子高度和风暴回波顶高度均持续增加,风暴垂直累积液态含水量激增;龙卷发生在上述参数的数值首次同时减小时.（4）双多普勒雷达反演的三维风场揭示,超级单体形成之前的对流风暴内部中低层已经有中尺度气旋形成,中尺度气旋伴随着超级单体的生成、发展和强化的各个阶段.中尺度气旋位于钩状回波顶端、其南端有反气旋,此涡旋偶对于中层动量下传、龙卷生成、发展、加强和触地具有重要作用.     

杭州西湖总磷动态变化预测

建立了西湖污染物分析和浓度变化的水质对流扩散模型,并利用该模型对西湖水体引水后７ｄ内总磷浓度的变化进行了预测,然后对预测结果作了较为详细的分析。