基于空间分位数模型的住宅价格分异的影响因素研究——以武汉市为例

住宅价格的变化是关系我国城镇化建设和社会经济高质量发展的重要问题。为探索住宅价格分位点下的影响因素,本文以我国中部国家中心城市——武汉市为例,运用空间分位数模型进行定量分析,同时将两阶段空间自回归模型结果作为对比揭示其优越性。研究表明：① 空间分位数模型不仅能考虑住宅价格的空间自相关性,而且还关注了住宅价格的条件分布特征,更为全面地描述微观因素对不同价位住宅的作用效应。②从分位点来看,高住宅价格的空间自相关性强于低住宅价格的;而且影响因素存在波动性和异质性,相比较于两阶段空间自回归的均值结果,空间分位数模型中各因素的影响程度随着分位点的变化出现上升或下降趋势,对低价、高价等不同价位的住宅影响程度存在显著差异。③ 整体而言,建筑年龄和医疗配套为负向影响因素,容积率等建筑特征、区位特征和教育配套等邻里特征变量为正向影响因素。基于研究结果,合理提高中低价位住宅区域的容积率和绿地率、加大低价住宅区的轨道交通和教育设施的投入力度等应当成为政府部门针对不同价位的住宅制定差异化政策措施的考虑方向。     

Low-wage jobs-housing fit: identifying locations of affordable housing shortages

Finding the right jobs-housing balance has long been an important concern for urban planners. More recently, attention has turned to jobs-housing fit – the extent to which housing price is well matched to local job quality. Prior analyses have been constrained by a lack of local data on job quality, making it difficult to identify the geography and scale of the problem. We introduce a new methodology for calculating the low-wage jobs-housing fit at both a jurisdiction and neighborhood scale that was designed in collaboration with affordable housing advocates and has been directly applied in urban planning and affordable housing policy efforts. Low-wage fit is particularly important because of ongoing difficulties with affordable housing provision and the disproportionate benefits of reducing transportation costs for low-income earners. We use the calculated metric at both a city and neighborhood scale to identify what can be learned from a low-wage jobs-housing fit metric that is not evident in traditional measures of jobs-housing balance. In contrast to jobs-housing balance, the low-wage fit analysis clearly highlights those jurisdictions and neighborhoods where there is a substantial shortage of affordable housing in relation to the number of low-wage jobs. Because of the geographic coverage of the data sources used, the results can be widely applied across the United States by affordable housing advocates, land-use planners, and policy makers.     

房价收入比分布规律及分析——基于河南省与全国数据对比

采用比较法和成本-收益法以河南省为例分析省域范围内房价收入比的空间分布规律,从经济地理学和经济学双重角度进行解释。结果显示:省域范围内以省会城市为房价收入比的极点,随时空距离增加和城市化水平下降,逐渐向外发散递减。这种规律分布是经济增长极对周边区域资源吸引、自身土地资源高度稀缺所致。现阶段,基于对高级别城市优越的公共资源和工业、商业环境效用的评价,在不超出支付能力的前提下,选择高级城市居住是人们理性追求居住净收益最大化的结果。未来随着城镇化发展进入成熟期,人们对城市人居环境更加关注,经济增长极的扩散效应逐渐增强,此时房价收入比的"鹤立"模式会逐渐消亡。     

广州租赁住房的空间分布格局及其成因

采用开放数据,并借助K-means聚类等空间计量方法,解析广州租赁住房空间的格局特征,结果发现：1）租赁住房空间与商品住房空间在中心城区具有明显的东西分离的分布特征,同时租赁住房空间沿交通线分布的趋势更为明显,并在中心城区外围形成几处集中分布的地区;2）广州租赁住房空间分为核心租赁地区、核心自住地区、次级租赁地区、外围租赁地区、低容量自住地区和其他地区6种类型;3）投资性购房热潮、城市发展战略导向与轨道交通建设、郊区化与同城化的共同影响促成了广州租赁住房的空间分布格局。     

城市内部居住迁移对个体健康的影响——以广州市为例

居住迁移作为城市最重要的活动之一,对个体生理和心理健康的影响受到社会学和心理学的关注,但鲜有从迁移所涉及的居住环境、迁移方向、距离等地理角度展开系统研究。本文以广州市为例,利用2016年入户调研问卷数据,运用二项logistic回归分析方法,并结合深度访谈法,分析居住迁移的时间特征、空间特征等因素对个体自评生理健康与心理健康带来的影响。研究结果表明,居住迁移对个体健康的影响包括长期累积效应与短期效应。前者体现为个体18岁前频繁的居住迁移对生理和心理造成的负面影响;后者为短时间内居住迁移对心理健康造成较大的负面影响。此外,在最近一次居住迁移中,主动迁居对生理健康有显著正向影响,离心性迁移方向对心理健康亦有显著正向影响;长距离迁移对心理健康则为负向影响。研究结果对于个体择居、社区建设具有重要的意义。     

南京城区住宅售租价格时空分异与影响因素

住宅价格空间分异是中国城市地理学和经济地理学近年来关注的热点前沿课题。以南京4560个居住小区为研究总样本,采集2009-2017年间30个季度各小区平均住宅售价和租金,选取6个特征时段和小区分布相对集中的重点研究区,采用克里格插值法分析研究区内住宅售租价格的空间分异与演变特征,发现售价空间分异明显加剧,高值区渐显于河西新城、江心洲和鼓楼名校学区;租金空间则从城市中心向外围递减格局转变为整体更加均衡的新老城区多中心结构。在此基础上,重点围绕住宅“区位”属性,构建售租价格分异影响因素指标体系,通过逐步多元回归分析发现,中心位势变量对售租价格的解释度最高,而配套服务类区位因素对售租价格的解释力在降低。南京城市房价快速增长背景下,常规“区位”因素对房价分异的重要性持续减弱,学区、政策偏向等特殊“区位”因子对房价的决定性作用则逐步突显,而“售租比”全面快速增长则预示着城市房价风险程度的整体提高。     

The Lingering Effects of Neighborhood Appraisal: Evaluating Redlining's Legacy in Pittsburgh

Place-based classifications can create long-standing influences on neighborhood fortunes. Redlining is a classic example of these unintended effects. The Federal Home Loan Bank Board developed housing appraisal standards subsequently codified in Residential Security Maps. By georeferencing the 1937 map of Pittsburgh, we evaluated the spatial legacies of neighborhood appraisals. We identify persistent neighborhood conditions by comparing neighborhood evaluations with normalized census data from 1970 to 2000. Contemporary conditions correspond with security grades from the 1937 map. Concentrations of poverty, people of color, and vacancy persist in historically redlined areas. Concentrations of high incomes, home values, and homeownership persist elsewhere.     

Flexible Spatial Multilevel Modeling of Neighborhood Satisfaction in Beijing

This article develops an innovative and flexible Bayesian spatial multilevel model to examine the sociospatial variations in perceived neighborhood satisfaction, using a large-scale household satisfaction survey in Beijing. In particular, we investigate the impact of a variety of housing tenure types on neighborhood satisfaction, controlling for household and individual sociodemographic attributes and geographical contextual effects. The proposed methodology offers a flexible framework for modeling spatially clustered survey data widely used in social science research by explicitly accounting for spatial dependence and heterogeneity effects. The results show that neighborhood satisfaction is influenced by individual, locational, and contextual factors. Homeowners, except those of resettlement housing, tend to be more satisfied with their neighborhood environment than renters. Moreover, the impacts of housing tenure types on satisfaction vary significantly in different neighborhood contexts and spatial locations.     

Suburban gentrification? Examining the geographies of New Urbanism in Atlanta’s inner suburbs

Since the 1990s, Atlanta’s inner suburbs have experienced rising rates of poverty alongside growing racial/ethnic diversity. ? Meanwhile, on the built landscape, high-end (re)development projects incorporating New Urbanist features such as pedestrian accessibility, compact densities, and mixed land uses have become increasingly common. Although practitioners suggest that these developments promote social inclusivity and enhanced “livability,” individual cases suggest that some New Urbanist projects may be gentrifying underserved communities of color. This paper tests the extent of this concern by examining Atlanta's inner-suburban geographies of New Urbanism using a logit model. Results indicate that neighborhoods with older housing stock, more renters, lower incomes, lower rents relative to home prices, and higher Latino populations in close proximity to inner-suburban downtowns are most likely to be targeted for New Urbanist (re)development. Thus, despite the optimistic language, New Urbanism in this region appears to be serving as the inner-suburban face of gentrification.?     

长三角一体化区域城市商品住宅价格分异机理研究

城市住宅价格及其空间差异是21世纪以来引起城市地理学者持续关注的热点问题。以长三角135个区县为研究对象,在通过分异度指数测度发现2014-2016年各区县商品房价差异增大的基础上,以商品房单位面积成交均价为因变量,提取16项房价影响因素为自变量,通过逐步回归和地理加权回归进行定量分析。研究发现：高校资源、经济密度、房产政策、经济实力、公共服务投入、高端从业者占比和产业结构7项指标对房价分异的影响最显著,而各因素对区域内房价的影响程度均具有显著的空间不稳定性。进而,提出房价是城市经济、人力、社会和行政等资源丰度的货币化表达,区域房价分异是城市支配资源能力差异的综合反映,其中行政资源在各类资源中占据主导地位。由此判断,长三角各区县房价在短时期内较难实现“俱乐部收敛”,沪宁杭等核心城市与外围地区的房价差距可能会继续扩大。