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31.
Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (Xn, n 0) or (Xt, t 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Yn, n 0) or (Yt, t 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points. 相似文献
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区域大气环境质量灰关联评价方法探讨 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
针对区域中大气环境质量的特点,采用对数主成分分析方法获得各环境指标的权重及各监测点的横向排名,再用适宜的灰度关联方法进行了评价。整个过程在MATLAB6.5中实现,计算简便易行,与传统的综合指数法相比较,其评价结果更符合客观实际。 相似文献
34.
绿片岩三轴流变力学特性的研究(II):模型分析 总被引:29,自引:6,他引:29
首先,基于在岩石全自动流变伺服仪上得到的绿片岩三轴流变试验曲线,采用五元件线性粘弹性模型对表现为粘弹性流变特性的曲线进行了辨识,获得了绿片岩的粘弹性流变参数;然后,提出了一个新的非线性粘性元件,并将其与塑性体并联起来,得到一个新的非线性粘塑性体(NVPB),该体能充分反映岩石的加速流变特性:同时,将NVPB模型与五元件粘弹性模型串联起来,建立了一个新的岩石七元件非线性粘弹塑性流变模型。采用绿片岩加速流变全过程曲线,对提出的岩石七元件非线性粘弹塑性流变模型进行了辨识,得到了岩石七元件非线性粘弹塑性流变模型的材料参数。流变模型与试验结果的比较,显示了所建模型的正确性与合理性。 相似文献
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Implications of the relationship between catchment vegetation type and the variability of annual runoff 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The impact of changing catchment vegetation type on mean annual runoff has been known for some time, however, the impact on the variability of annual runoff has been established only recently. Differences in annual actual evapotranspiration between vegetation types and the potential effect of changing vegetation type on mean annual runoff and the variability of annual runoff are briefly reviewed. The magnitude of any change in the variability of annual runoff owing to a change in catchment vegetation type is related to the pre‐ and post‐change vegetation types and the seasonality of precipitation, assuming that the variability of annual precipitation remains constant throughout. Significant implications of the relationship between vegetation type and the variability of annual runoff are presented and discussed for water resource management, stream ecology and fluvial geomorphology. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
37.
Identifying and quantifying urban recharge: a review 总被引:12,自引:1,他引:12
David N. Lerner 《Hydrogeology Journal》2002,10(1):143-152
The sources of and pathways for groundwater recharge in urban areas are more numerous and complex than in rural environments.
Buildings, roads, and other surface infrastructure combine with man-made drainage networks to change the pathways for precipitation.
Some direct recharge is lost, but additional recharge can occur from storm drainage systems. Large amounts of water are imported
into most cities for supply, distributed through underground pipes, and collected again in sewers or septic tanks. The leaks
from these pipe networks often provide substantial recharge. Sources of recharge in urban areas are identified through piezometry,
chemical signatures, and water balances. All three approaches have problems. Recharge is quantified either by individual components
(direct recharge, water-mains leakage, septic tanks, etc.) or holistically. Working with individual components requires large
amounts of data, much of which is uncertain and is likely to lead to large uncertainties in the final result. Recommended
holistic approaches include the use of groundwater modelling and solute balances, where various types of data are integrated.
Urban recharge remains an under-researched topic, with few high-quality case studies reported in the literature.
Electronic Publication 相似文献
38.
This study examines runoff generated under simulated rainfall on Summerford bajada in the Jornada Basin, New Mexico, USA. Forty‐five simulation experiments were conducted on 1 m2 and 2 m2 runoff plots on grassland, degraded grassland, shrub and intershrub environments located in grassland and shrubland communities. Average hydrographs generated for each environment show that runoff originates earlier on the vegetated plots than on the unvegetated plots. This early generation of runoff is attributed to soil infiltration rates being overwhelmed by the rapid concentration of water at the base of plants by stemflow. Hydrographs from the degraded grassland and intershrub plots rise continuously throughout the 30 min simulation events indicating that these plots do not achieve equilibrium runoff. This continuously rising form is attributed to the progressive development of raindrop‐induced surface seals. Most grassland and shrub plots level out after the initial early rise indicating equilibrium runoff is achieved. Some shrub plots, however, display a decline in discharge after the early rise. The delayed infiltration of water into macropores beneath shrubs with vegetation in their understories is proposed to explain this declining form. Water yields predicted at the community level indicate that the shrubland sheds 150 per cent more water for a given storm event than the grassland. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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湘北红壤坡地雨水过程的水土流失及其影响 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
模拟主要利用方式构建的垫面为主导因子,采用径流场实测方法,通过4a(1998~2001年)实地观测试验,剖析不同下垫面对雨水地表径流及其过程的影响。研究表明:降雨(时间分布及其强度)是影响地表径流特征的主导因素;年降雨量与地表径流量和系统水土流失量呈正相关。不同垫面地表径流产量有显著性差异;雨水径流过程的土壤和养分流失有相似的表现。在假定雨水年份的基础上,应用不同雨水年份出现概率指标,推算出:湘北红壤坡地现今利用状况下,雨水产地表径流过程的年均水土流失量及其养分(有机质、N、P、K)损失量;和可最大开发利用时,可能带来的水土流失与养分损失。提出"利用坡地集雨利用优势,构建与单元生态系统水循环平衡相适应的坡地农林复合生态系统,通过水平衡生态建设来维系生态系统的水分平衡"观点。 相似文献