Seismic risk assessments and GIS technology: applications to infrastructures in the Friuli–Venezia Giulia region (NE Italy)

This paper illustrates the seismic risk preliminary estimates of two different groups of structures located on the territory of the Friuli–Venezia Giulia region (NE Italy) : the first group includes some special industrial plants, and the second group includes bridges and tunnels belonging to the regional highway network. The part of the study on special industrial plants tries to evaluate the degree of expected damage, taking into account their structural typology and ground shaking expressed in terms of macroseismic intensity. The second part of the study is an application of the HAZUS methodology to the tunnels and bridges of a highway network: the combination of expected ground shaking and the construction characteristics lead to very different risk levels, especially when considering the bridges. The resulting damage levels to bridges and tunnels are still only indicative because of the fragility curves used in the evaluations: they were developed for existing bridge and tunnel structural typologies in the U.S.A. Moreover, both examples show the power of GIS technology in storing, elaborating, and mapping spatial data. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大庆徐家围子地区深部致密砂砾岩气层识别

大庆徐家圈子地区深部致密砂砾岩储层的骨架成分除了含有石英、长石外，还含有许多酸性喷发岩，而且各种骨架成分的含量随深度变化比较大；复杂的岩性使得气的影响被岩性的影响所淹没，从而造成常规气层识别方法失效。针对这一问题，应用神经网络方法准确求取地层颗粒密度和泥质含量，然后对中子和密度测井值进行岩性影响校正和泥质影响校正，使得求出的中子和密度孔隙度仅受地层气的影响，最后将得到的中子和密度孔隙度进行对比，应用中子和密度孔隙度的差异识别气层。     

湖泊水下扇沉积特征及影响因素--以伊通盆地莫里青断陷双阳组为例

伊通盆地莫里青断陷始新统双阳组发育典型的湖泊水下扇体。根据岩心、测井和地震资料 ,并结合粒度分析等方法 ,将其划分为内扇、中扇和外扇亚相及某干微相。影响水下扇形成和分布的主要因素是 :同生断裂的活动造就了陡坡地形 ,其幕式活动成为水下扇形成的触发机制 ;阵发型水下扇主要发育在陡坡带 ,稳定型水下扇主要发育在扇三角洲的前端 ,气候因素也为稳定型水下扇形成创造了物源条件 ;基准面升降影响着水下扇的相序特征 ,低水位体系域和水退体系域易形成推进型水下扇 ,水进体系域易形成退缩型水下扇 ;半深湖 -深湖的滞水条件是水下扇得以保存的前提。统计结果表明本区获工业油气流的井主要集中在中扇 ,其中辫状水道微相最为富集。     

Tsunami Hazard and Risk in Canada

Tsunamis have occurred in Canada due to earthquakes, landslides, and a large chemical explosion. The Pacific coast is at greatest risk from tsunamis because of the high incidence of earthquakes and landslides in that region. The most destructive historical tsunamis, however, have been in Atlantic Canada – one in 1917 in Halifax Harbour, which was triggered by a catastrophic explosion on a munitions ship, and another in 1929 in Newfoundland, caused by an earthquake-triggered landslide at the edge of the Grand Banks. The tsunami risk along Canada's Arctic coast and along the shores of the Great Lakes is low in comparison to that of the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. Public awareness of tsunami hazard and risk in Canada is low because destructive tsunamis are rare events.     

Treating the Risks in Cairns

Cairns is exposed to the well-known natural hazards oftropical cyclone, flood, stormsurge and thunderstorm, but is also exposed to thelesser-known hazards of landslip, earthquake and dam break flooding. Recommendations fortreating the risks associated with these hazards have been made that will involve amulti-disciplinary approach to treatment strategies, require the cooperation of allthree levels of government, involve public utility authorities and private enterprise andinvolve the community as a whole.This paper summarises the suggested mitigation treatmentoptions, presented to the Cairns City Council and identified in the LocalGovernment Disaster Mitigation Project conducted in Cairns in 1999/2000 by theQueensland Department of Emergency Services.     

Quantifying Storm Tide Risk in Cairns

The United Nations International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)gave rise to an increasing level of attention to the risks posed by a range of naturalhazards and the development of strategies by which to reduce those risks. It waswidely recognised that in order to evaluate risk treatment strategies it was necessaryto `measure' the level of risk that already existed and the level of risk that would beencountered with the treatment strategy(s) in place.This paper outlines the methodology developed under the AGSO (now GeoscienceAustralia) Cities Project to quantify the risk associated with storm tide inundation. It includes the methodology for `measuring' the level of community exposure to storm tide hazards and the methodology for `measuring' community vulnerability. The Far North Queensland city of Cairns is used as the case study to demonstrate the application of these methods.     

Community Vulnerability to Tropical Cyclones: Cairns, 1996–2000

This paper is a partial discussion of a four-year study that investigated the vulnerability of the people living in the Cairns region to the tropical cyclone hazard. The longitudinal case study, focussing on the Cairns Northern Beaches area, was unique in that it included a social and societal `pre-cyclone impact' evaluation of various resident communities within the region, and then two consecutive `post-cyclone impact' studies. The primary research method supported an inductive qualitative approach to the collection and analysis of survey data. Some quantitative methods were invoked to support qualitative research findings. Survey data was collected in five separate questionnaire-based social surveys that were administered between 1996 and 2000. During the study, residents experiencedthe direct impact of two land-falling tropical cyclones. In addition to this, targeted andfocussed tropical cyclone awareness education was made increasingly available withinthe community. The social and demographic attributes that influence the individual'sperception of risk and contribute to our understanding of community vulnerability were examined and evaluated. Changes in the residents' attitudes, cyclone preparednessbehaviours and willingness to respond to cyclone warnings were monitored and measured. Analysis of early survey data indicated that community residents generally had some knowledge of cyclones but a limited understanding of cyclone processes and very little direct personal experience of the cyclone hazard. Individually and collectively, residents frequently demonstrated a biased perception of the risks associated with cyclones. The resident community was shown to be fragmented, with limited support being available to individual households. Initially, residents were found to be poorly prepared for cyclones and unlikely to respond to warnings appropriately. It appeared that, in the event of a land-falling tropical cyclone impacting the area, the community was highly vulnerable to unnecessary loss of property, livelihood and – in extreme circumstances – life. By 2000, Cairns community residents were somewhat better informed about cyclones and certainly more experienced. This paper provides some insight into how cyclone experience and education may synergisticly have contributed to a change in risk perceptions and a reduction in the vulnerability of Cairns residents to the tropical cyclone and storm surge hazards.     

Reliability based risk index for the design of reinforced earth structures

The design methods currently used for earth reinforcement are mostly based on deterministic properties of both the soil and the construction materials used. Nowadays, however, the general trend is designing at a specific degree of reliability. This is even more true where the raw data such as soil properties exhibit significant variation. Deterministic solutions, in this case, may not suffice. Therefore, this paper will attempt to use probabilistic formulations thereby modifying the existing design procedure of reinforced earth retaining walls to account for uncertainties and variabilities. Through a first order Taylor's series expansion about the mean, the mean and variance of the strip reinforcing components, namely width and length, are derived in terms of the variations in the soil properties. Design charts that enable estimation of both mean and variance are developed to avoid extensive partial differentiation involved in the computations. Using appropriate probability distributions along with the mean and variance, the final design outputs are determined for a selected failure probability by introducing what is refered to as 'risk index'. The results indicate that the risk index increases with an increase in the coefficient of variations and a decrease in failure probability. Furthermore, it is shown that in some cases, depending on the variabilities of the soil properties, the classical design technique produced a relatively high failure probability. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

小波变换在识别储层流体性质中的应用

根据小波变换的特点提出一种识别储层流体的新方法. 本文假设测井所得的信号为地层微观孔隙结构、地层流体性质及岩性和岩相等各部分的综合贡献之和，不同的储层中小波分析的能量谱特征不同，因而通过对已知储层模型进行小波能量谱分析，可得到各种储层的特征能量谱，根据这些储层特征能量谱就可以对待划分的储层段进行储层流体性质判别.     

鄂豫皖交界地区地震地质背景与中强地震复发特征的研究

鄂豫皖交界地区位于东大别山西部，历史中强地震(M≥43/4)主要发生在土地岭-落儿岭及商城-麻城断裂带上，且“互动”和“连动”的特征较为显著。根据这一特征，在研究东大别山区域地质、地壳结构、断裂活动及地震构造应力场特征的基础上，可将鄂豫皖交界地区的中强地震作为秦岭-大别山活动地块中的次级地块的整体活动来看待。该区历史地震活动整体表现为丛集特征，而主要发震断层(土地岭-落儿岭断裂)的历史地震活动则具有相对较好的准周期性。地震复发周期研究提示，该地块近期发生M≥5．0左右地震的危险性较大，而霍山-六安地区为未来发生中强地震的主要危险区。