北京及邻区微震活动的初步分析

通过对北京遥测地震台网近年来记录到的北京及邻区地震的震中分布,地震活动频度及能量释放强度的分析,得到本区地震活动在时间分布上具有“聚堆性”。在年发震频度,地震强度和能释放方面均具有双峰值特征,并且具有较好的一致性和同步性,在空间分布上具有条带特征,且形成北东～南西和北西～南东的两条相互交汇的条带。又通过统计分析得到本区发震概率最大的时间段是每年的１０月前后,而地震主要发生在北西～南东带上。     

FS方法及其在综合多项震兆中的应用

本文提出了一种模式识别方法--FS方法.该方法的特征取为某些论域上的模糊子集.先以每三个原始特征组成子分类器的特征集,“训练”这些分类器,然后对子分类器进行筛选,最后用筛选出的子分类器的“软”分类结果的加权平均作为判别函数,形成总的分类决策.将FS方法应用于综合多项震兆,并进行了一系列控制试验,还与地震学中几种常用的方法进行了对比试验.结果表明,FS方法是稳定和有效的.     

Optimization of nonconventional wells under uncertainty using statistical proxies

The determination of the optimal type and placement of a nonconventional well in a heterogeneous reservoir represents a challenging optimization problem. This determination is significantly more complicated if uncertainty in the reservoir geology is included in the optimization. In this study, a genetic algorithm is applied to optimize the deployment of nonconventional wells. Geological uncertainty is accounted for by optimizing over multiple reservoir models (realizations) subject to a prescribed risk attitude. To reduce the excessive computational requirements of the base method, a new statistical proxy (which provides fast estimates of the objective function) based on cluster analysis is introduced into the optimization process. This proxy provides an estimate of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the scenario performance, which enables the quantification of proxy uncertainty. Knowledge of the proxy-based performance estimate in conjunction with the proxy CDF enables the systematic selection of the most appropriate scenarios for full simulation. Application of the overall method for the optimization of monobore and dual-lateral well placement demonstrates the performance of the hybrid optimization procedure. Specifically, it is shown that by simulating only 10% or 20% of the scenarios (as determined by application of the proxy), optimization results very close to those achieved by simulating all cases are obtained.     

城市化过程中土地征用风险表征及对策

从土地征用基本概念和基本特征着手，描述了土地征用的主要风险，其表现为土地征用权力滥用、侵害失地农民的权益、诱发集体土地黑市、诱发社会矛盾等方面。分析了产生风险的“公共利益需要”缺乏明确界定、土地征用的补偿标准偏低或滞后、土地征用及相关制度不健全或存在缺陷等主要原因。提出了控制与规避风险的对策与措施：严格限定公益性用地范围，提高征地补偿标准，扩大补偿范围，完善相关制度，严格土地征用程序。     

Quantification of the risk associated with high levels of mercury pollution at Temirtau, Kazakhstan

This research aims to establish the risks of hurnan exposure to modeling approach. The study site was located on the River Nura 1990s, an acetaldehyde production plant located in the industrial high environmental mercury levels, based on a quantitative risk in central Kazakhstan. From the 1950s until its closure in the mid city of Temirtau released mercury-containing wastewater into the river. River sediments are highly contaminated with mercury up to a distance of 25 km and beyond. In addition, a local power station released an estimated 6 million tonnes of fly-ash into the water and the mercury has become quite tightly associated with the ash deposits. River water, fish and agricultural land in the floodplain are also contaminated with mercury, yet the risks posed to the local population have not been evaluated to date. In June and July 2005, we took samples of soil, interior and exterior dust, drinking water, and food from individual households, communal areas and markets. Additionally, water and sediment samples and fish were taken from the river. Interviews were conducted with householders to establish their age and body weight, general living conditions and sources of irrigation and drinking water. A food frequency questionnaire （FFQ） was designed to investigate the frequencies of consumption of several common regional food items, including fish from the fiver and/or local market. Human hair samples were also collected to estimate the mercury bioburden and to enable the validity of the modeling approach to be established. The paper expands on the main pathways of contamination and looks at linkages between exposure pathways and mercury concentrations found in human hair. Uncertainties inherent in risk analysis as well as their influence on the relative importance of different exposure routes are also discussed.     

Comparative Seismic Risk Studies for German Earthquake Regions on the Basis of the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98

Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity.     

Site Effects Study in the Serravalle Village (NE Italy) by Means of Spectral Ratios Analyses Relatively to Multiple Reference Sites

The area of Serravalle, sited in the northern part of the town of Vittorio Veneto (TV), NE Italy, has been the target of a seismic microzonation campaign. 10 seismic stations have been deployed for a 7 months period to record in continuous mode. Three stations were installed on bedrock outcrops and seven on sedimentary sites with variable cover thickness. Spectral analyses have been performed on the collected data-set using the Generalized Inversion Technique (GIT, e.g. Andrews, 1986). In particular, spectral ratios have been calculated for each station relatively to the average of the three reference, bedrock sites. The spectral ratios provide quantitative estimates of the seismic motion amplifications which occur in each of the monitored sites. Two sites show high values of amplification, 5 times larger than signal amplitude at the reference sites, in correspondence of well discernible peak frequencies of 5 Hz. Results for the other stations show smaller amounts of site amplification spreading over a broad range of frequencies. Sites where the highest amplifications were recorded all lie on the left bank of the Meschio River and in areas farther away from its outlet into the plain correlating with the presence of thick layers of Quaternary deposits.