Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from North China

Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions.     

Evaluation of risk concepts in partial duration series

Conventional design practice aims at obtaining optimal estimates of floods with specified exceedance probabilities. Such estimates are, however, known on the average to be exceeded more frequently than expected. Alternatively, methods focusing on the expected exceedance probability can be used. Two different methods are considered here; the first is based on the sample distribution of true exceedance probabilities. The second is a Bayesian analogue using the likelihood function and a noninformative prior to describe the variability of exceedance probabilities. Appropriate analytical solutions are presented in both cases using the partial duration series approach.     

Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example

ABSTRACT

Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources – and different perceptions thereof – explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.     

基于模糊理论的高铁连续梁桥地震风险评估

以某高速铁路线上一座连续梁桥为例,运用模糊综合评判法,结合基于位移的支座损伤分析和截面曲率的桥墩损伤分析,以全概率理论地震损失模型为基础,提出了基于模糊理论的桥梁系统地震经济风险评估方法。结果表明:综合考虑桥梁系统的模糊地震经济风险分析方法能更全面地计算出连续梁桥在地震作用下的经济损失,仅以桥墩构件代表全桥所得地震经济损失误差较大。基于模糊理论的年预期损失风险框架方法通过结构抗震性能的概率特征可对高速铁路连续梁桥的地震直接经济风险进行全面评估,为该类桥梁的抗震设计、维修加固和灾后重建等方案做出合理评价。     

The incorporation of stochasticity in risk analysis and management: a case study

 The selection of optimal management strategies for environmental contaminants requires detailed information on the risks imposed on populations. These risks are characterized by both inter-subject variability (different individuals having different levels of risk) and by uncertainty (there is uncertainty about the risk associated with the Yth percentile of the variability distribution). In addition, there is uncertainty introduced by the inability to agree fully on the appropriate decision criteria. This paper presents a methodology for incorporating uncertainty and variability into a multi-medium, multi-pathway, multi-contaminant risk assessment, and for placing this assessment into an optimization framework to identify optimal management strategies. The framework is applied to a case study of a sludge management system proposed for North Carolina and the impact of stochasticity on selection of an optimal strategy considered. Different sets of decision criteria reflecting different ways of treating stochasticity are shown to lead to different selections of optimal management strategies.     

State-of-the-art of geotechnical earthquake engineering practice

Major developments in geotechnical earthquake engineering practice over the last 15 years are reviewed. The objectives of the review are to present a coherent view of the current state of practice at the highest level and to examine trends, which may shape practice in the future. Developments are described in the following areas: specification of design ground motions, dynamic response analysis, evaluation of liquefaction potential, evaluation of residual strength of liquefied soil, post-liquefaction displacement analysis, and seismic risk analysis.     

新疆塔城地区地震地质特征

托里活断层、达尔布特活断层、独山子—安集海活断层及霍尔果斯—卡子湾活断层是塔城地区主要的全新世活断层，均有过多次古地震活动。自１９７７年以来，４级以上地震活动的空区在裕民县西北。据活断层古地震活动复现期及地震活动围空特点分析，今后１０年北天山或塔城西北可能有发生６级左右地震的危险。     

利用凹凸体判断柯坪块体地震危险性

将柯坪块体作为研究对象,利用最大似然法进行b值计算,并结合利用双差定位法对柯坪块体上发生的M_L≥1.6地震重定位后的结果,寻找沿柯坪块体主要断裂带的凹凸体。研究发现,柯坪块体上发生地震的震中主要沿断裂带分布,沿柯坪塔格逆断裂带存在凹凸体,该区域虽已发生大地震,但依然处于高应力水平,因此初步判定沿柯坪塔格逆断裂带仍存在发生地震的危险性。     

电网磁暴灾害风险影响因素研究综述

磁暴是源自太阳磁场剧烈变化的地球空间效应,随着电网规模的增大和电压等级的增高,磁暴灾害已经成为诱发电网故障风险的威胁之一.研究电力系统磁暴灾害风险的影响因素可为预防与控制其引发的电网事故提供重要参考.在分析历史典型磁暴事件的基础上,剖析了磁暴诱发电力系统故障的机理,阐述了故障传播与电力系统响应的过程,总结了近年来关于影响电力系统的地磁感应电流水平及其产生的变压器无功损耗方面的研究成果,从磁暴本身的特点和电力系统的参数与结构两方面将影响因素分类.以GIC标准模型,通过改变磁暴扰动环境和电力系统参数,说明了各因素对电网磁暴灾害风险的影响程度,并比较了不同因素影响后果的差异,最后指出了尚未解决的问题和可能的研究方向.     

Prevalence and distribution of fecal indicator organisms in South Florida beach sand and preliminary assessment of health effects associated with beach sand exposure

Fecal indicator levels in nearshore waters of South Florida are routinely monitored to assess microbial contamination at recreational beaches. However, samples of sand from the surf zone and upper beach are not monitored which is surprising since sand may accumulate and harbor fecal-derived organisms. This study examined the prevalence of fecal indicator organisms in tidally-affected beach sand and in upper beach sand and compared these counts to levels in the water. Since indicator organisms were statistically elevated in sand relative to water, the study also considered the potential health risks associated with beach use and exposure to sand. Fecal coliforms, Escherichia coli, enterococci, somatic coliphages, and F(+)-specific coliphages were enumerated from sand and water at three South Florida beaches (Ft. Lauderdale Beach, Hollywood Beach, and Hobie Beach) over a 2-year period. Bacteria were consistently more concentrated in 100g samples of beach sand (2-23 fold in wet sand and 30-460 fold in dry sand) compared to 100ml samples of water. Somatic coliphages were commonly recovered from both sand and water while F(+)-specific coliphages were less commonly detected. Seeding experiments revealed that a single specimen of gull feces significantly influenced enterococci levels in some 3.1m(2) of beach sand. Examination of beach sand on a micro-spatial scale demonstrated that the variation in enterococci density over short distances was considerable. Results of multiple linear regression analysis showed that the physical and chemical parameters monitored in this study could only minimally account for the variation observed in indicator densities. A pilot epidemiological study was conducted to examine whether the length of exposure to beach water and sand could be correlated with health risk. Logistic regression analysis results provided preliminary evidence that time spent in the wet sand and time spent in the water were associated with a dose-dependent increase in gastrointestinal illness.