地球资源环境动态监测技术的现状与未来

针对国家全球化战略和迫切需要解决的全球环境和资源问题,本文阐述了国内外地球资源环境动态监测技术主要研究进展,发现存在地球资源环境监测高精度产品缺乏、动态监测能力不完备、遥感信息服务及时性和便携不足等主要问题。在此基础上,提出中国迫切需要发展面向全球和重点区域的持续、动态观测能力,建立全球视野的资源环境动态监测产品和应用系统,突破全球资源环境研究的理论和关键技术,建立全球资源环境遥感监测指标和技术体系,形成全球立体协同观测、资源汇聚优化、信息智能处理、云平台业务应用的自主技术体系,完善支撑任务驱动的数据汇聚、模型调度、产品生成等在线遥感信息服务能力,发布全球、洲际和全国高质量空间要素遥感信息产品、专题应用系统、技术报告等成果。最终为全球资源环境研究提供知识发现的数据和服务,支撑中国在全球资源环境监测评估、重大灾害事件监测预警、应对国家安全与全球变化等领域的服务。     

Development and Utilization of the World’s and China’s Bulk Mineral Resources and their Supply and Demand Situation in the Next Twenty Years

Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world’s and China’s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world’s and China’s supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources(especially iron ores and copper ores) are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserveproduction ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world’s six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015–2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4–0.7 billion tons(Gt), 5.0–6.0 million tons(Mt), 1.1–8.9 Mt, 1.0–2.0 Mt, 1.2–2.0 Mt and 4.8–5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China’s compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores(crude steel), potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores(crude steel) will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite(primary aluminum), 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China’s demand for iron ores(crude steel), bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world’s demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015–2035, China’s accumulative demand for iron ores(crude steel) will be 20.313 Gt(13.429 Gt), 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt(0.616 Gt) of bauxite(primary aluminum), 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world’s YOY(YOY) accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China’s bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary(mine) mineral products in 2015–2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper,1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of(mine) lead, 0.109 Gt of(mine) zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world’s predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000–2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China’s crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015–2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015–2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap(iron ores) is 3.27 Gt(5.08 Gt), 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China’s bulk mineral resources in 2015–2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China’s iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%,-0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly.(1) The demand peak of China’s crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015–2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak.(2) The supply-demand contradiction of China’s bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities.(3) China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of "reducing excess production capacity".(4) In accordance with the national strategic deployment of "One Belt One Road", China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly.(5) It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling.(6) China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.     

广东厚婆坳整装勘查区锡多金属矿资源潜力分析

利用广东厚婆坳整装勘查区内的典型矿床、重点工作区、其他矿床的潜力评价成果,建立了8个定量预测模型区;然后通过综合信息分析,按热液型、斑岩型2种矿床类型在厚婆坳整装勘查区分别圈定并优选了最小预测区,进行资源量估算;最后对最小预测区进行归并整理,形成综合预测区,在此基础上提出了勘查部署建议。     

澳大利亚地球探测计划研究进展

AuScope计划是澳大利亚2007年启动的新一轮的地球探测计划, 其目标是在澳大利亚建立一个从时间到空间, 从地壳到地核, 从地球空间到地质科学范畴内的世界级的研究架构, 包括数据采集、管理、建模和模拟等。在2007年启动以来, 澳大利亚NCRIS资助4280万美元, 其中1580万用来发展一个改进的地理空间参考系统, 2700万用于地球物理探测和地球化学分析。同时, 有超过7000万美元由合作投资者提供。头期赞助的计划项目已经于2011年6月完成。随后教育投资基金(Education Investment Fund)继续给予 2300万美元资助, 主要是建立一个新的澳大利亚地球物理观测系统(Australian Geophysical Observing System), 通过收集新的地表地球空间和深部探测和监测原始数据, 提供人们对澳大利亚现今地壳物理状态的更好理解认识。同时, 项目合作者后期将会在未来投入8200万美元来共同完成AGOS计划的完成。总之, AuScope计划已经超越了初期设想的研究目标, 同时在后期获得资助的AGOS研究中, 将进一步挖掘AuScope计划所获得的数据和成果认识, 并迎合我们对地球物理资源问题的解决, 研究区域主要集中于澳大利亚具有丰富资源的沉积盆地中。     

贵州织金下寒武统黑色页岩矿物岩石成分及资源利用特征

通过野外采样、化学分析、电子探针(EPMA)和X射线衍射(XRD)分析等手段,研究了贵州织金地区黑色页岩矿物成分、化学组分、微量元素、稀土元素特征。研究区矿样化学成分以SiO_2和Al_2O_3为主,且具有高K低Na的特征。电子探针和X射线衍射分析表明,研究区黑色页岩主要矿物组成有石英、粘土矿物、白云石及黄铁矿等。织金黑色页岩中Pb、Ni、U、V、Cr等金属元素存在不同程度的富集,稀土元素总量为153.2×10~(-6)~224.89×10~(-6),属轻稀土元素富集型。同时从多金属层、页岩气、页岩提钾及近底部含磷铀矿资源等方面讨论了织金黑色页岩资源化利用。织金黑色页岩多金属层含有Mo、V、Ni、Ag及U等多金属元素,具综合利用价值;其中有机碳含量达到页岩气开发大于2%的条件,可进一步开展研究;页岩中伊利石含量较多,可提取黑色页岩中的钾制备含钾复合肥;黑色页岩底部与磷矿层接触带产出磷铀矿,主要为胶状磷铀矿,接触带可作为铀矿找矿的标志层。     

黄海南部小黄鱼洄游分布及种群结构特征

Monthly fishery survey data of the small yellow croaker Larimichthys polyactis in the southern Yellow Sea from2003 and 2013 were employed to evaluate the variation in the resource distribution and biological characteristics(especially body length and sex ratio) in the population on a decadal scale.The results indicated that the small yellow croaker migrated from the Shawai fishing ground to the Dasha fishing ground in spring and was mainly distributed in the central and western parts of the Dasha fishing ground in April and May.Larimichthys polyactis in the Dasha fishing ground migrated eastward to offshore wintering grounds in autumn and reached the central Dasha fishing ground in October and November.The small yellow croaker entered the western waters of the Shawai fishing ground in winter.A large number of age 0+ fish occurred in the Shawai and Jiangwai fishing grounds in October of 2003 and 2013.The body lengths of the spawning stock and wintering stock in 2013 were larger than those in 2003,and the monthly sex ratios(female to male) were significantly less than 1 in both years.The monthly distribution of this fish in the southern Yellow Sea was consistent with a previous finding that "the stock migrated between the wintering grounds in the west of Jeju Island and the Lüsi spawning grounds" but tended to move more northward,with the spawning grounds extending outward.In the past decade,body length variation experienced a decline after an increase,rather than a steady decrease.The sex ratio in the single-stick stow net showed a tendency to increase over the decade,but was either less than or more than 1 depending on the fishing gear;therefore,further studies should be conducted to determine the sex structure.     

Assessing potential spatial and temporal conflicts in Washington's marine waters

This paper uses spatial, temporal, and use-intensity data for 27 major marine uses in Washington waters to feature a method for assessing potential use conflicts in a variety of scenarios. The study represents a first step towards quantifying potential conflicts within Washington’s Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) study area by using a cumulative analysis to highlight high- and low-use intensity areas and the novel Marine Potential Conflict Index (MPCI), which incorporates space, time, and intensity of use, to quantify pairwise potential conflicts between uses. About 10% of pairs of uses do not overlap spatially and are likely compatible with one another. Temporally, the number of uses peaks in July and August and falls during January and February. Additionally, the MPCI identified three important use types with a substantial degree of potential conflict: commercial fishing, tribal fishing, and shipping. External data were used in three cases to ground-truth the analysis, as a limited test of its utility in managing any potential conflict. This article assesses the extent of Washington’s existing marine uses along spatial, temporal, and intensity axes, and more broadly provides a straightforward way to examine potential conflicts between marine uses.     

基于GF 1光谱数据的青藏地区冰川资源现状遥感调查

以2014—2015年的GF 1为主、少量OLI影像为基础,参考第二次中国冰川目录等文献资料,修编完成青海省和西藏自治区两省区的现代冰川编目,查明青藏两省区目前共有冰川24 796条,总面积约2624×104 km2,约占青藏两省区区域面积的137%,冰川储量为2027×103~2121×103 km3。调查区冰川数量以面积<10 km2、冰川面积介于10~100 km2之间的冰川为主,其中面积<10 km2的冰川有19 983条,占总数量的8059%,面积介于10~100 km2之间的冰川面积为11 96240 km2,占总面积的4559%;面积最大的中锋冰川的面积达23737 km2。调查区内的山系(高原)均有冰川分布,念青唐古拉山冰川数量最多,其次是喜马拉雅山和冈底斯山,这3座山系冰川数量占调查区内冰川总数量的6333%;念青唐古拉山、喜马拉雅山和昆仑山的冰川面积和冰储量位列前3位,其冰川面积和冰储量分别占总数的6809%和7344%;然而昆仑山和羌塘高原的单条冰川的平均面积大于念青唐古拉山和喜马拉雅山的平均面积。从冰川海拔分布来看,海拔5 000~6 500 m之间是冰川集中发育区域,约占调查区冰川数量和冰川总面积的85%以上。调查区的冰川在各流域的分布差异显著,恒河流域是冰川分布数量最多、面积最大的一级外流区,其数量占冰川总量的47%以上,面积占总面积的52%以上;青藏高原内陆流域的冰川数量、面积次之,其冰川数量占总数量的21%,面积占总面积的24%以上,并且内流区单条冰川的平均面积略大于外流区的平均面积。总体上,西藏的冰川数量、面积和冰储量分别占西藏和青海两省区的8492%、8492%、8668%,单条冰川的平均面积两省区相近。     

国际上水资源综合管理进展

中国近年实施最严格水资源管理制度、全面推行河长制等一系列政策,不断探索完善水资源综合管理的体制和机制。为加强对水资源综合管理的认识,推动中国水资源综合管理的实施,结合国际社会对水资源综合管理认识和实践新成果,主要梳理总结水资源综合管理理念的形成过程、主要组成、实施状况、存在问题和发展趋势。结果显示:(1)随着对传统水资源管理存在分散化等问题的认识,水资源综合管理的理念逐渐形成,并已被国际社会所接受;(2)水资源综合管理实施"综合"途径管理水资源,强调通过完善实施的环境条件、机构框架、具体管理手段和稳健的水基础设施投资机制,实现用水效率、社会公平、环境可持续的均衡;(3)许多国家已把综合管理的理念和措施纳入到其水资源管理政策和体制框架设计中,并在水管理的实践过程中取得新进展;(4)国际上水资源综合管理理念和经验为进一步完善中国水资源管理提供了启示和借鉴;(5)未来水资源综合管理将进一步得到推广实施,从理念到解决具体水问题的实践过程将进一步加强,并呈现多样性和动态性特征。尽管面临由于气候变化影响和水与社会经济交互作用导致的不确定性、复杂性等问题的挑战,随着水资源综合管理的实践和水科学研究进步,水资源管理将进一步采用整体、多学科和可持续的途径,助力可持续发展目标的实现。     

华蓥山中段地区地下水资源量评价

四川华蓥山中段地区水流失比较严重,供需矛盾突出,水环境持续恶化,不但影响到居民正常的生产和生活,而且严重影响了该地区国民经济的建设和发展。通过野外调查和综合分析现场收集的资料,总结出华蓥山中段地区地下水资源量流失情况:该区每年流失的水资源量约为0.914 4亿m3,且华蓥山褶皱西翼水流失总量大于东翼,而西翼北端是区内水流失量最严重的区域,其水资源量流失的影响因素主要为气候、社会发展及人类活动等。