Deep dynamical processes in the central-southern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau—Receiver functions and travel-time residuals analysis of north Hi-Climb

Teleseismic receiver functions and travel-time residuals along the north Hi-Climb broadband seismic array in the central-southern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau show that the lithosphere structures in the central and western Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are different. In the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Indian Plate is northward subducted beneath the Qiangtang block and arrives at the greatest depth beneath the central-southern Qiangtang block. The delaminated Indian lithospheric slab remains beneath the central Lhasa block to a depth possibly greater than that of the upper interface of the mantle transform zone. In the western Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Indian lithospheric plate is gently northward subducted and may have arrived to the south of Tarim plate. Due to the resistance from the gently northward subduction of the Indian mantle lithosphere in the western Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the upwelling mantle material be-neath the Qiangtang block moves mostly toward the east to bring about the lateral eastward flow of the deep mantle hot material in the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.     

1999—2003年西北太平洋热带气旋综合预报的误差分析

应用1999—2003年中国中央气象台 (CMO)、日本气象厅 (JMA) 以及美国联合台风警报中心 (JTWC) 发布的西北太平洋热带气旋综合预报资料, 从总误差、逐年误差趋势、不同海区误差、不同路径趋势误差、不同强度趋势误差等5个方面对各预报中心的路径及强度预报结果进行分析, 结果表明:5年总的平均误差以JTWC的路径预报误差最小, 而JMA的强度预报较准确; 在不同海域, 各预报中心的路径预报能力各有优势, 但在热带气旋的强度预报方面, JMA的方法在各海区都较稳定; 对不同路径趋势热带气旋的预报方面, 除了南海转向热带气旋的路径预报比JMA和CMO稍差一些之外, JTWC的路径预报在大多数情况下都是好于或相当于JMA和CMO; 在不同强度变化趋势热带气旋的预报方面, JTWC在大多数情况下都优于其他中心。上述结果帮助业务和科技人员全面了解各预报中心的预报能力优劣, 也为今后改进我国的热带气旋预报提供有益的参考。     

自吸水分对煤中瓦斯解吸的综合影响

为研究自吸水分对煤中瓦斯解吸的影响,利用自主设计的实验装置,实现了水分在煤中的自发渗吸,单独研究了水分对瓦斯的置换效应,并对不同含水率条件下煤中瓦斯的置换解吸量、卸压解吸量以及残余瓦斯含量进行了测定。结果表明：水分能够促进煤中吸附态瓦斯发生置换解吸,且含水率越大,置换解吸量越大;卸压解吸过程中,相同时间内含水煤样瓦斯解吸量小于干燥煤,且随着含水率升高,解吸量逐渐减小;充分解吸后含水煤样的残余瓦斯含量小于干燥煤,在4%~10%含水率,随着含水率升高,残余瓦斯含量逐渐降低;针对晋城矿区永红煤矿的无烟煤,自吸水分对瓦斯解吸整体上表现为促进作用,水分对瓦斯解吸的影响是置换效应与水锁效应综合作用的结果。     

三种非线性回归逐时气温预报比较订正

选取ECMWF和T639的2013年1月至2014年12月的数值预报场构造预报因子,基于神经网络、支持向量机和构造函数的非线性方法,预报地面逐时气温。试验结果显示,在单个方法预报误差较大时,3种方法的偏差订正集成方法更利于减小误差,通过偏差订正,3种非线性方法预报效果良好,平均绝对误差减小了0.5 ℃。在近1年独立样本的预报检验中,集成方法、神经网络、支持向量机和构造函数预报的平均绝对误差分别为1.5 ℃、1.7 ℃、1．8 ℃和1．4 ℃,总体上构造函数预报更为准确。     

基于GIS的“一带一路”地区气温插值方法比较研究

“一带一路”倡议是新时期中国为加强对外开放提出的全球化合作倡议,资源环境的优化配置对全球化发展意义重大。气温作为重要的基础数据和输入要素,对其进行空间化处理是实现大尺度区域资源环境优化配置的前提。本文基于地理信息技术（GIS）,运用距离平方反比法（IDS）、协同克里格法（CK）、回归距离平方反比法（RIDS）和回归协同克里格法（RCK）,对“一带一路”地区1980—2017年的2679个气象站点的月平均气温和年平均气温数据进行插值,获得了“一带一路”地区10 km分辨率的气温空间分布数据。交叉验证结果表明：① IDS、CK、RIDS和RCK插值法在整体上均较好地展示了“一带一路”地区气温的地理空间分布规律,4种插值方法的月均气温的均方根误差分别在1.93~2.43、1.78~2.14、1.31~2.23和1.23~1.92 ℃之间;年均气温的均方根误差分别为1.94、1.83、1.37和1.27 ℃;② 在“一带一路”地区,加入协变量分析的CK插值精度整体优于IDS,并且削弱了IDS的极值现象;③ RIDS和RCK对年均气温的插值精度分别较IDS和CK提高了29.4%和30.6%,表明加入地理要素并进行残差修正的插值精度得到了进一步提高。总体来看,RCK插值法对气温数据的插值精度最高,可以考虑将此方法作为“一带一路”地区温度等气象要素的插值方法。     

关于西沙海槽正磁异常带的地球物理认识

南海北部西沙海槽存在东西向正磁异常带,长约350 km,前人推测为基性或超基性物质反磁化的反映.通过对西沙海槽大比例尺高精度航磁资料分带化极处理和反演拟合,发现西沙海槽正磁异常带由海槽北缘隐伏强磁性体斜磁化引起.磁性体埋深超过9 km,推测是残留洋壳（蛇绿岩）,为海南岛昌江—琼海断裂带或海南岛九所—陵水断裂带所代表的缝合带在南海北部的延伸段.     

综合地球物理方法对黄海地区前新生代残留盆地分布的研究

残留盆地由于埋深大、构造复杂等特点,单一的地球物理方法对残留盆地的勘探与解释存在很大的局限性,因此运用综合地质地球物理方法对前新生代残留盆地进行研究,可以充分发挥各种方法的优势,有效地解决油气勘探中的有关问题.本文以黄海地区前新生代残留盆地为研究对象,以"区域控制局部,深层约束浅层"为指导思想,在前人研究的基础上,运用重、磁、地震、钻井和区域地质等资料进行了综合研究,根据研究与计算结果勾绘了黄海地区前新生代残留盆地的宏观构造格架,并分析了残留盆地分布特征.     

Investigating the propagation mechanism of unmodelled systematic errors on coordinate time series estimated using least squares

The propagation of unmodelled systematic errors into coordinate time series computed using least squares is investigated, to improve the understanding of unexplained signals and apparent noise in geodetic (especially GPS) coordinate time series. Such coordinate time series are invariably based on a functional model linearised using only zero and first-order terms of a (Taylor) series expansion about the approximate coordinates of the unknown point. The effect of such truncation errors is investigated through the derivation of a generalised systematic error model for the simple case of range observations from a single known reference point to a point which is assumed to be at rest by the least squares model but is in fact in motion. The systematic error function for a one pseudo-satellite two-dimensional case, designed to be as simple but as analogous to GPS positioning as possible, is quantified. It is shown that the combination of a moving reference point and unmodelled periodic displacement at the unknown point of interest, due to ocean tide loading, for example, results in an output coordinate time series containing many periodic terms when only zero and first-order expansion terms are used in the linearisation of the functional model. The amplitude, phase and period of these terms is dependent on the input amplitude, the locations of the unknown point and reference point, and the period of the reference point's motion. The dominant output signals that arise due to truncation errors match those found in coordinate time series obtained from both simulated data and real three-dimensional GPS data.     

A comparative error analysis of manual versus automated methods of data acquisition for algebraic strain estimation

This paper presents a statistical analysis of the algebraic strain estimation algorithm of Shimamoto and Ikeda [Shimamoto, T., Ikeda, Y., 1976. A simple algebraic method for strain estimation from deformed eillipsoidal objects: 1. Basic theory. Tectonophysics 36, 315–337]. It is argued that the error in their strain estimation procedure can be quantified using an expected discrepancy measure. An analysis of this measure demonstrates that the error is inversely proportional to the number of clasts used. The paper also examines the role of measurement error, in particular that incurred under (i) a moment based and (ii) manual data acquisition methods. Detailed analysis of these two acquisition methods shows that in both cases, the effect of measurement error on the expected discrepancy is small relative to the effect of the sample size (number of objects). Given their relative speed advantage, this result favours the use of automated measurement methods even if they incur more measurement error on individual objects. Validation of these results is carried out by means of a simulation study, as well as by reference to studies appearing in previous literature. The results are also applied to obtain an upper bound on the error of strain estimation for various studies published in the literature on strain analysis.