The tidal regime of Shark Bay, Western Australia

A non-linear hydrodynamic model is used to describe the tidal dynamics of Shark Bay, Western Australia. The model is forced by tidal elevations generated by M₂, S₂, K₁ and O₁ constituent data at the open boundaries. The absence of suitable boundary data required a ‘calibration’ of the boundary condition against the known constituent data from within the model domain. The model provides a good match to the available field data, and allows the surface-level and current response to be resolved over the entire domain. Due to a near quarter-wave resonance of the semi-diurnal tide along the eastern Hopeless Reach, which increases the semi-diurnal tide by a factor of 2, the tidal characteristics on each of the Reaches are different: on the eastern Hopeless Reach the tides are mainly semi-diurnal while on the western Freycinet Reach the tides are mainly diurnal. The tidal range is also higher along Hopeless Reach. Tidal harmonics, generated by non-linearity, are important in the shallow regions. The tidal wave is shown to propagate as a progressive wave into the Bay. Substantial phase-lag, attenuation and dissipation occur over the Faure Sill, a major shallow region of the eastern reach of the Bay. Non-linear generation of the M₄ and MS₄ tides is also significant in this region. Depth-averaged residual currents are presented, which show a tidally generated circulation that is enhanced in regions of complex topography. Estimates of tidal dissipation indicate that although the total dissipation is small on a global scale, the areal average is comparable with the Gulf of Carpentaria and approximately one-quarter of the value estimated for the Patagonian Shelf.     

电厂温排水中余氯浓度预测

利用有限元分步杂交方法,对胶州湾海域潮流场进行了数值模拟。考虑余氯在水体中的化学反应,利用前人大量实验成果选取余氯衰减系数,建立胶州湾余氯的二维输运-扩散模型,并将此模型应用于青岛市黄岛发电厂三期温排水工程,预测了温排水中余氯的浓度分布及影响范围,为电厂冷却水排放口邻近水域的生态环境保护提供依据。     

三峡库首区最小一维速度模型研究

根据三峡台网2001～2006年记录的490个地震事件中的7 330条P波和3 524条S波到时资料,利用Kissling方法得到了三峡库区最小一维P波和S波速度模型以及台站校正值,并应用于地震的精定位.重新定位后地震走时残差均方根从原来的0.56 s下降到0.41 s,地震定位精度在经度、纬度、深度方向上有了较大提高.     

极端生物降解沥青中8,14- 开环藿烷系列及其地球化学意义

借助色谱- 质谱（GC- MS）和色谱- 质谱- 质谱（GC- MS- MS）分析,对黔南坳陷凯里残余油藏凯棠和洛棉剖面上储层沥青中的烃类组成进行了系统分析,以判断其所遭受生物降解作用的程度,探寻在极端降解原油中是否还存在原生生物标志物,为这类原油的油源研究开拓新的途径和方法。结果表明：凯棠剖面上的储层沥青中尽管仍可检测到较为完整的C19- 30三环萜烷和C27- 35藿烷系列,但C19- 29脱甲基三环萜烷系列和C26- 34 25- 降藿烷系列丰富而完整,甾烷系列中C21- 22低分子量甾烷和重排甾烷优势明显,这一系列特征表明这些沥青遭受了剧烈生物降解作用的改造。但三芳甾类仍保存完好,依据原油生物降解程度的评判标准,判断其生物降解级别介于8~9级之间。洛棉剖面上的储层沥青中藿烷系列基本消失殆尽,三环萜烷系列及其脱甲基产物和25- 降藿烷系列的分布因极端生物降解作用而发生显著变异,某些化合物如C23T、C24T、C23NTE和C28- 29NH成为优势成员;甾烷系列中C21- 22低分子量甾烷占绝对优势,三芳甾类完全消失,据此判断该剖面上沥青的生物降解级别已达到10级或更严重。由于这两个剖面上的沥青遭受了极端生物降解作用的改造,常用的甾、萜类生物标志物完全失去了实用价值。但是,在所分析的这些沥青中都检测到三个系列的C27- 35 8,14- 开环藿烷系列,它们与塔里木盆地塔中地区海相端元油中存在的同类标志物的分布特征相似。正常海相端元油和极端生物降解沥青中同时检测到这三个系列的8,14- 开环藿烷,这一事实表明这类生物标志物在成因上具有原生性,而与生物降解作用无关。此外,在极端生物降解作用沥青中的完好保存,表明它们具有极强的抗生物降解能力,因而它们在此类原油的油源研究中可能具有潜在的实用价值。     

不确定性平差模型的平差准则与解算方法

在测量数据的获取过程中,经常存在着不确定性,它们影响着参数估计的可靠性。本文通过把不确定度作为参数融入函数模型,建立了不确定性平差模型。依据残差中不确定性传播规律,确定了残差最大不确定度达到最小的平差准则,利用迭代算法得到了不确定性平差模型的解算方法。通过实例分析了最小二乘平差、整体最小二乘平差和不确定性平差准则下最优解的不同特点,从另一个角度探讨了不确定性观测数据处理方法,推广了现有的误差理论。     

等维新息模型在地表沉降监测中的应用

介绍了等维新息模型的建模过程及其精度评定方法,并以某矿区地表沉降实测值为依据,建立等维新息模型对其沉降趋势进行预测,在对预测值进行残差修正后,经实测结果对比,与沉降趋势相符合,验证了等维新息模型在地表沉降预测应用的可行性。     

一种组合模型在卫星钟差长期预报中的应用研究

近年来,卫星钟差长期预报普遍采用灰色模型,该模型的预报精度虽较传统的二次多项式模型有所提高,但仍不理想。本文在其基础上提出了一种新的组合模型:首先利用灰色模型估计的残差建立二次多项式模型,预报以后历元的残差,然后和灰色模型的预报结果相加;并分析了利用不同历元个数的残差建模所得组合模型的精度,将组合模型与灰色模型、二次多项式模型的预报精度进行了比较。结果表明:组合模型相对于灰色模型的预报精度能提高一个数量级左右,验证了本文提出的组合模型的可行性和有效性。     

残差自适应回归MGM(1,n)

鉴于MGM(1,n)在预测过程中,不同变量的拟合及预测残差差距较大,本文将自适应回归模型引入到不同变量的残差估计中,对整体的残差起到平滑的作用,从而抑制了残差的上扬趋势,经过实例分析,残差自适应回归MGM(1,n)的预测精度得到了明显的提高。     

辽东湾北部浅海区底泥砷元素形态特征

依据2006年辽东湾浅海评价资料,分析了辽东湾北部浅海底泥的砷元素全量和各形态的含量,对砷元素全量和存在形态的分布特征及相关性进行了系统研究,并探讨了其环境生态效应.结果表明:底泥中的砷含量为较高水平,存在形态主要为残渣态、腐植酸结合态和铁锰氧化态,而水溶态、碳酸盐结合态、离子交换态和强有机结合态含量较少.除砷的强有机结合态以外,全量和其他6种形态有很好的相关性,分布特征一致,高值区都分布在锦州湾及附近.并且生态效应明显,底泥中砷的腐殖酸结合态、铁锰氧化态、离子交换态与脉红螺中砷有显著相关性,碳酸盐结合态与锯缘青蟹和口虾蛄中砷有一定的相关性.     

Subtidal Flow Patterns in Western Florida Bay

Recent observations using moored current meters, shipboard ADCP transects, salinity mapping and drifters have been used to study the residual circulation including wind drift in western Florida Bay.Rapid, nearly synoptic surveys of salinity over a large area was an effective tracer-mapping technique, when salinity gradients were sufficiently strong, and provided qualitative information on Lagrangian water motion for the entire study area. The salinity maps indicated a general south-eastward advection, which was only subordinate to tidal mixing in a narrow zone adjacent to the Florida Keys.Drifter data collected simultaneously, allowed quantitative estimates to be added to the transport pattern suggested by salinity maps. The selectively deployed drifters yielded estimates of total drift velocities. In addition, moored current meters and shipboard current profiling were used to determine the distribution of flow across the mouth of the bay facing the Gulf of Mexico and the transport through Long Key Channel, a major connection between the bay and the Atlantic Ocean.Analysis showed that from 64 to over 92% of the drifter trajectory variances could be explained by the combination of a local wind drift, expressed in terms of a wind drift factor multiplied by the surface shear velocity, and an ambient current. For a 1 m high drifter deployed at the surface of the water column, the wind drift factor was found to be approximately 0·125m, making the drift speed roughly equal to 0·45% of wind speed. The mean drifter speeds were linearly proportional to mean transport estimates derived from the current meter observations in Long Key Channel, enhancing confidence in both data sets.The total south-eastward directed residual current varied between 100 and 5000 m day⁻¹and was weaker in summer than in winter, when southward winds associated with periodic passage of cold fronts boost the residual flow. The estimated contribution from local wind drift varied between 500 m day⁻¹in summer to 1000 m day⁻¹in winter. The remaining contribution to the observed Lagrangian residual circulation in western Florida Bay is caused by other forcing, including tidal rectification, remote wind forcing and large-scale current systems (the Gulf Stream and Florida Current systems).