精细化MOS相对湿度预报方法研究

利用2003年5~9月MM5模式每隔1 h的站点基本要素预报场和物理量诊断场资料,以及相应时段内宁夏25个测站的相对湿度自记观测资料,同时采用多元线性和逐步回归2种MOS统计方法,预报宁夏25个测站5~9月48 h逐时相对湿度。对2004年夏季6~8月预报效果检验表明:MOS方法制作宁夏48 h逐时相对湿度预报结果是可用的或是可参考的;2种MOS统计方法预报结果相近,逐步回归方法比多元线性方法预报效果稍好,08:00预报误差明显低于20:00;当天气形势变化较平稳时,MOS预报结果稳定,平均绝对误差控制在10%左右;当有明显的变温等特殊天气时,误差变率起伏波动大,预报结果不稳定。     

石河子绿洲空气湿度和降水的长期变化趋势分析

分析了石河子绿洲3个地面站(炮台、石河子和莫索湾)41a(1964～2004年)的温度、相对湿度和降水,发现随着石河子垦区绿洲面积的扩大以及新疆增温增湿的气候变化趋势,石河子绿洲也有其比较独特的区域气候特征。主要表现在:(1)41a来温度、降水量呈增加趋势,但空气湿度比较稳定,没有明显的变化;(2)石河子绿洲的温度、降水量以及空气湿度具有明显的季节变化特征。秋季的温度变幅最大,冬季最小。这与新疆大部分地区冬季增温幅度最大有所不同。空气相对湿度变化的季节差异不明显。(3)以莫索湾站代表绿洲边缘,石河子站代表绿洲区,其降水、温度和空气湿度变化有明显差异,显示了比较明显的绿洲“冷岛”和“湿岛”效应。     

Joint processing and analysis of seismic gravity measurements in Capital Circle area

In Capital Circle area, there are three groups of repeated gravity measurements observed by different institutes using different instruments or methods. The simultaneous adjustment of absolute and relative measurements and the elimination of systematic error among the relative measurements have been carded out in this paper. Thus an unified temporal gravity change system with absolute reference has been established. On the basis of this, the crustal subsidence effect on gravity, which belongs to non-tectonic factor, is analyzed and the station displacement corrections are carried out, so that the long-wave disturbance is eliminated. So far our following aims are realized： the advantages of the absolute and relative measurement methods are complementary to each other; the contradiction and environment disturbance are eliminated; the amounts of information are enlarged; the sampling interval of time domain is compressed. In a word, the ability of identifying the tectonic activity process is enhanced. The results show that： there are systematic errors between the two groups of relative measurements and within the data of 10 campaigns ; the uneven local crustal subsidence in the southeast of the study area results in a linear rise of gravity value at 10 stations; they can be corrected by the regression analysis. The maps of revised temporal gravity change can obviously and integrally reflect the Ms=5.0 earthquake in Guye on October 6, 1995.     

辽宁深井承压水位潮汐响应函数的初步研究

介绍了辽宁省地震水动态监测网19口井固体潮汐响应函数的计算结果,基于M2波潮汐因子及其月离散相对误差,分析了各观测井潮汐响应函数对地壳应变的响应灵敏度、潮汐因子的动态稳定性和监测效能。结果表明:在所列19口观测井中,如果以M2波潮汐因子0.2m/10-9作为潮汐响应幅值的下限,则除甘沟子以外的18口井可用于潮汐响应函数的研究;如果以M2波潮汐因子的月离散相对误差20%作为选择观测井的上限,则除瓦房店楼房井、岫岩1井、周家井、丹东变电所井、牛四井、容2井和阜新市甘沟子等井以外的12口井可用于潮汐参数的动态特征研究。     

近10a西北太平洋海域登陆台风的环境场特征分析

对1995~2004年5~10月西北太平洋海域登陆台风的大尺度环境场的特征进行了分析。结果表明:海表温度(SST)在台风发生的区域要高于周围其它区域,而且都在26.5℃以上,即高的海表温度有利于台风的发展;在台风的发现点主要集中的区域范围,相对涡度几乎都为正值,正的相对涡度有利于台风的发展;对流层中层相对湿度大,有利于上升浮力和潜热释放的维持,使热带气旋得以发展;弱的环境风垂直切变有利于台风强度的增大,并且两者之间的影响存在着一定的时间滞后。     

Constructing temporal and spatial water vapor figures by GPS remote sensing along slant rays

A Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver can generally track 5-7 rays from GPS satellites at any moment, and water vapor along these ray paths (slant-path water vapor, SWV) may be retrieved using the methods developed in recent years. This paper suggests two new parameters-absolute vertical SWV (VSWV) and relative VSWV derived from SWV, and their temporal and spatial figures can reflect the heterogeneous distribution and variation of water vapor field. This approach has been applied to the weather diagnoses in a severe storm event in Beijing during July 2004, and it is concluded that the temporal and spatial figures of absolute VSWV and relative VSWV can be useful in monitoring the evolution of water vapor field and be potential in better understanding the precipitation process.     

辽宁省区域性大雾预报研究

通过对1994—2002年9年辽宁区域地面图的普查,得到了辽宁区域性大雾天气(大于等于5个地市,能见度小于0.5 km)共有73次。分析近10年区域性大雾天气过程得到了区域性大雾的时空分布特征。普查区域性大雾过程发生时的常规气象资料,进行区域性大雾天气分型。分析辽宁省各种区域性大雾的成因及要素演变特征,从中提取预报指标,建立预报流程,用PP法建立区域性大雾的客观预报方法。     

住宅侧墙绿化的降温增湿效应研究

对住宅小区的侧墙绿化墙面与裸露墙面温湿度的对比分析发现,侧墙绿化可以有效地改善墙体的温湿度状况;同时通过观测爬墙虎的蒸腾速率,推算出其对环境的降温增湿效果;并通过有侧墙绿化与无侧墙绿化室内温湿度分析比较,说明侧墙绿化对室内温湿度的影响。     

斜拉桥索塔三维相对基准定位方法研究

结合斜拉桥索塔基准放样及斜拉索预埋钢管的精密定位的需要，提出了一种新的基于测量机器人的三维相对基准放样方法，并成功用于灌河特大桥斜拉桥主桥的施工放样。实践证明，与传统的方法相比，该方法具有方便、高效、精度高等特点。     

A proposal for comparing the reliabilities of alternative seismic hazard models

Differences between statistical unertainty and modeling uncertainty are briefly discussed. It is pointed out that, when different models are proposed for the interpretation of reality, the uncertainty cannot be described in terms of mean value and coefficient of variation. The important question is: which of the proposed models is more reliable than the others? The attention, then, is concentrated on the comparison between different models proposed for the estimate of the required quantity, looking for a criterion leading to the selection of the most reliable one. A criterion for comparison of different models is suggested. In the example of application considered in this paper, it proved to be effective, so that the continuation of numerical experiments, exploring different and more complex situations, seems promising.