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81.
通过对测震学各单项指标的预测效能调研,为进一步提取前兆信息,选择了7项测震学指标:频次、地震蠕变、6值、缺震、η值、GL值和调制比,进行综合概率分析。7项指标对关注地区的全时空扫描并考虑了空间单元异常与中强震地点对应的模糊关系,得到指标在各空间单元异常后发生中强震的条件概率。根据历史上每个单项指标的预报效能求计算综合概率时的指标权重,按贝叶斯定律得到相应不同指标在不同时间窗和不同空间单元时中强震发生的加权综合概率。计算结果(1970年以来)表明,对华北地区和川滇地区这一综合概率方法预测效能的R值评估超过0.5。 相似文献
82.
环境与发展中的南北关系 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
在环境与发展的问题上,发达国家与发展中国家之间存在着一种既利益相关又矛盾对立,既有合作又有斗争的相互关系,尤其是围绕温室气体排放和环境贸易问题的合作谈判始终伴随着激烈的南北冲突,作为发展中国家的环境大国,面对环境与发展的国际合作趋势和来自发达国家的挑战,应该采取积极对策,一方面积极开展环境外交,围绕斗争,争取利益,维护主权;另一方面加强环境对策及其理论研究,完善自身环境管理机制,为促进环境与发展的南北合作创造条件。 相似文献
83.
In recent years, more and more studies are focused on the performance in seismic design instead of the strength of structures. People have realized that the structure deformation (displacement) can describe the damage more properly and directly than the strength (force). The displacement design spectra need to be constructed within more wide range of the period and the damping for the displacement-based seismic design. 相似文献
84.
85.
Wu Fu-chun Song Li-sheng Zhu Xing-guo Wang Feng Jing Bei-ke Dong Xing-hong Fang Wei Zuo Yong-qing 《地震学报(英文版)》2001,14(4):434-439
Based on the analysis of the induced earthquakes in China and abroad, we get some ideas about earthquakes induced by pumping
water out of a well or injecting water into a well. The induced earthquakes usually occur near the well, and they are generally
small earthquakes. The earthquake sources are shallow, and they belong to the main shock-after shock type of earthquake or
the swarm-type of earthquake. The magnitude and the quantity of the induced earthquakes obviously depend on the pressure and
the quantity of water pumped or injected. These earthquakes happen as soon as pumping or injecting occurrence, or after ten
or twenty days, they may occur at the time of injecting mud or injecting high pressure water when a well is being drilled,
or at the time when the ground water is being normally exploited. A large quantity of hot water has been exploited since 1990
in Xi’an, and the quantity of water exploited has been increasing year by year, as a result the groundwater level has been
dropping with the water pumped out and the water level is high in summer and low in winter. The earthquakes in Xi’an region
belong to the solitary-type and they spread outside Xi’an city where the wells are concentrated but no earthquake happens.
The seismic frequency and the energy released have no relation with the quantity of water exploitation or the water level
in the well. It is considered that geothermal exploitation does not induce earthquakes in and around Xi’an because of its
specially geological condition.
Foundation item: Project sponsored by the Landslide Office of Shaanxi Province and Society of Disaster Reduction of Shaanxi Province. 相似文献
86.
An important problem in hydrologic science is understanding how river flow is influenced by rainfall properties and drainage basin characteristics. In this paper we consider one approach, the use of mass exponents, in examining the relation of river flow to rainfall and the channel network, which provides the primary conduit for transport of water to the outlet in a large basin. Mass exponents, which characterize the power-law behavior of moments as a function of scale, are ideally suited for defining scaling behavior of processes that exhibit a high degree of variability or intermittency. The main result in this paper is an expression relating the mass exponent of flow resulting from an instantaneous burst of rainfall to the mass exponents of spatial rainfall and that of the network width function. Spatial rainfall is modeled as a random multiplicative cascade and the channel network as a recursive replacement tree; these fractal models reproduce certain types of self-similar behavior seen in actual rainfall and networks. It is shown that under these modeling assumptions the scaling behavior of flow mirrors that of rainfall if rainfall is highly variable in space, and on the other hand flow mirrors the structure of the network if rainfall is not so highly variable. 相似文献
87.
B. Borzi G. M. Calvi A. S. Elnashai E. Faccioli J. J. Bommer 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2001,21(1):103
In recognition of the emergence of displacement-based seismic design as a potentially more rational approach than force-based techniques, this paper addresses derivation of inelastic displacement spectra and associated topics. A well-constrained earthquake strong-motion dataset is used to derive inelastic displacement spectra, displacement reduction factors and ductility–damping relationships. These are in a format amenable for use in design and assessment of structures with a wide range of response characteristics. 相似文献
88.
利用ERA-Interim 1979—2018年6—8月的再分析资料,通过相关分析、信息流、合成分析等方法研究了南亚高压强度与其邻近地区垂直速度的相互依赖关系.结果表明:南亚高压在上对流层-下平流层区域具有上冷下暖的热力结构,冷、暖中心分别在70 hPa和250 hPa,以这两层的温度异常建立的温差指数可以反映南亚高压的强度.在不同时间尺度上,南亚高压强度与其邻近地区垂直速度的相互依赖关系是不同的.在月时间尺度上,南亚高压强度通过动力作用影响邻近地区的垂直速度,南亚高压增强(减弱)时,其东部地区的上升运动和西部地区的下沉运动同步增强(减弱);在日时间尺度上,南亚高压中部的垂直速度通过热力强迫影响南亚高压强度,南亚高压中部地区上升运动增强(减弱)时,南亚高压增强(减弱)且位置偏西(偏东). 相似文献
89.
90.
沙区绿洲人地系统演进探讨——以民勤盆地为例 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
资源与环境问题已成为当代人类生存与发展的重大问题,它通过人地系统中人与地之间的相互联系,以各种方式和强度作用于人类。人地系统有其运行规律和演进机制,要建立协调的人地关系、促进沙区绿洲的可持续发展,就必须清楚地了解其人的地系统的动态演进机制。通过分析民勤盆地人地系统的演进过程,提出了人地系统演进的机制和驱动力,从而为更好地调控沙区绿洲人地系统的演进提供依据。 相似文献