作为复杂适应系统的农业文化遗产：复杂性的挑战

本文首先阐述了农业系统的复杂性,并对农业系统所面对不确定性,以及外部系统的冲击和压力而形成的动态性进行了分析,提出“复杂适应性系统理论”为研究活态的农业系统,尤其为研究中国的全球重要农业文化遗产（GIAHS）提供了可能,而这些农业文化遗产系统（或其中某些部分）对于研究抵抗力和自我良性管理具有重要的意义.本文认为当前研究中的相关方法将会对整个系统的认识产生新的见解,同时避免把系统分解为各组分进行微观研究再重新还原成整体的研究思路.本文通过综述与GIAHS相关的方法并将旅游引入农村系统（作为一种扰动）,认为可以创造新的方法来认识农村发展干预措施对古老景观的影响,特别是分布在中国农村的许多景观.     

Tameike灌溉池塘农业文化遗产:以大分县国东半岛为例（英文）

本文以于2013年5月被认定为全球重要农业文化遗产(GIAHS)试点的国东半岛为例,探讨了日本tameike灌溉池塘成为农业文化遗产的潜力。"tameike"是这个地区主要用来储存泉水或者短小急流的一种小型池塘。国东的tameike建造与当地的水稻种植和林业发展关系密切。许多现存的灌溉池塘均建于江户时期(1603–1867),直到战后这些池塘都是通过传统农业技术进行管理。然而,随着经济发展,这些灌溉池塘的用途和生态系统功能迅速减少。目前,灌溉池塘的总数只有明治维新前的近三分之一。GIAHS项目试图重新评估这些灌溉池塘的生态系统功能和相关知识体系以振兴当地农业。本文基于文献调查和实地研究,提出合理管理灌溉池塘可以成功使这种资源循环利用的文化恢复生机,而这正是国东地区作为农业文化遗产的意义。     

INTERNATIONAL HYDROLOGICAL DECADE / WORKING GROUP ON “THE INFLUENCE OF MAN ON THE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE”

Abstract

Floods, as extreme hydrological phenomena, can be described by more than one correlated characteristic, such as peak, volume and duration. These characteristics should be jointly considered since they are generally not independent. For an ungauged site, univariate regional flood frequency analysis (FA) provides a limited assessment of flood events. A recent study proposed a procedure for regional FA in a multivariate framework. This procedure represents a multivariate version of the index-flood model and is based on copulas and multivariate quantiles. The performance of the proposed procedure was evaluated by simulation. However, the model was not tested on a real-world case study data. In the present paper, practical aspects are investigated jointly for flood peak (Q) and volume (V) of a dataset from the Côte-Nord region in the province of Quebec, Canada. The application of the proposed procedure requires the identification of the appropriate marginal distribution, the estimation of the index flood and the selection of an appropriate copula. The results of the case study show that the regional bivariate FA procedure performed well. This performance depends strongly on the performance of the two univariate models and, more specifically, the univariate model of Q. The results show also the impact of the homogeneity of the region on the performance of the univariate and bivariate models.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis     

岷县漳县6.6级地震前区域地壳运动变形背景与断层形变异常特征

利用甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震区所在的青藏块体东北缘地区的区域水准、GPS、流动重力和跨断层短测线等地形变监测资料,结合地质构造、动力环境和已往的研究结果,分析了不同类型资料反映的震前区域性地壳变形背景、断层形变异常特征和可能的机理.结果认为：（1）岷县漳县6.6级地震前西秦岭、六盘山等构造区不同程度地存在着GPS水平挤压闭锁高应变积累、垂直隆升异常高梯度带和重力升、降差异剧烈变化等中长期背景;（2）震前到震时发震断裂附近及其外围相关构造区域断层形变异常在空间和时间上的起伏波动变化显著,尤其是汶川地震以来的波动变化在一定程度上反映了与本区构造比邻的龙门山断裂带剧烈右旋错动对本区的影响,与本次岷县6.6级地震过程有关;（3）本区有地形变监测资料积累以来缺乏6级以上震例,虽然存在不同程度的中长期形变背景异常,但何时进入短期-短临阶段确实很难把握,需要不断积累总结和探索提高.     

Reconstruction of the rainy season precipitation in central Jordan

Abstract

Concurrent reconstructions of October—April precipitation at Madaba and Rabba gauging sites in central Jordan back to the year 1777 using a multivariate regression model are presented. The reconstruction model was calibrated using concurrent precipitation and tree-ring data for the period 1953–1981 The regression equation is significant (p < 0.05), while reconstructions account for 53% and 48% (adjusted for lost degrees of freedom) of the total variability of the precipitation at the Madaba and Rabba sites, respectively. The validation statistic obtained indicates the existence of worthwhile information in the reconstructions. A threshold of 1 standard deviation below the mean is used to define extremely dry years. The concurrent analysis of the reconstructed precipitation at both sites indicates the occurrence of 24 regional extremely dry periods of between 1 and 2 years' duration. Dry periods of more than 2 years' duration rarely occur. This study indicates the occurrence of noticeable extremely dry individual years: 1800, 1827, 1895 and 1933. The estimated mean recurrence times of extreme droughts are 9.3 and 51.3 years for droughts of 1-year and 2-years duration, respectively.     

基于SuperMap GIS的成都市旅游信息系统的设计与开发

成都市作为"中国最佳旅游城市",应该充分挖掘旅游资源潜力,利用信息技术提高旅游管理和服务水平,吸引更多的游客资源,为成都的经济发展服务,树立成都旅游的新形象。同时,以软件技术和空间信息处理为核心的地理信息系统技术,具有强大的空间信息管理、属性数据查询、空间信息分析等功能,为旅游信息系统开发提供了理想的平台。本文根据成都市旅游资源的实际情况,从信息系统的管理开发和软件工程的角度出发,设计了基于GIS的成都市旅游信息系统的开发思路,并利用组件式GIS软件SuperMap Objects为开发平台,结合高级编程语言VB.NET,具体编程实现了成都市旅游信息系统的部分查询功能和空间分析功能,基本上可以满足游客的信息查询和分析的需要。     

浅谈城市旅游地图的设计与创新

随着城市经济的快速发展,地图的商用价值逐步显现,怎样设计出受市场欢迎的城市旅游地图成为急需解决的问题。本文就城市地图设计创新及广告运用的有关理念、实践和应该注意的问题进行了探讨。     

Exploring Regional Firm-Size Structure in Canadian Housebuilding: Ontario, 1991 and 1996

This paper is concerned with the regional firm-size structure of housebuilding in Canada based on a case study of the province of Ontario. Using an innovative database of builders in Ontario and geographic information systems, measures of regional firm-size structure are developed and are modeled with data from the Canadian census. The results corroborate established models in the city systems and industrial organization literatures in that industrial concentration is negatively associated with regional population size, economic diversity, and economic performance. Small housebuilding firms abound in large, diverse and economically vibrant regions, especially large urban regions, and thereby maintain industrial deconcentration.     

优化开发区域制造业企业迁移的因素及其区域影响——以广东东莞市为例

优化开发区域是区域发展的较高级阶段,其内部企业迁移的规律比较复杂。选择制造业发达地区——广东东莞市为案例区,采取半结构式访谈法和调查问卷法探讨优化开发区域制造业企业迁移的影响因素及其区域影响。研究表明,现阶段东莞市劳动密集型企业迁出和资本技术密集型企业迁入并存,劳动密集型企业迁出是要素成本、环境管制、区域依赖性和地方政府博弈相互作用的结果,而产业基础、区域创新要素、产业政策和区域软环境等因素促进资本技术密集型企业的迁入;企业迁移可以促进区域产业升级转型,提高区域生产空间质量和优化区域国土空间结构。     

我国东部沿海三大经济区区域经济的空间自相关分析

本文以我国东部沿海三大经济区域——环渤海、长三角、珠三角为研究对象,依据空间统计学的空间自相关方法,采用以高速公路里程数为影响因子改进的空间权重矩阵,以及全局和局部Moran I指数模型,通过ArcToolbox空间分析工具分析三大区域经济空间格局。研究结果表明,长三角与珠三角区域发展呈显著的空间正相关,长三角地区较之其他两地区发展最为成熟,发展极辐射大。同时地理环境对于区域经济发展作用明显,发展核心城市集中于沿江地区或平原地区。