Novel insights on intensity and typology of direct human-nature interactions in protected areas through passive crowdsourcing

Recent advances in geotagging, sharing and automatically analyzing online content from Social Networking Sites (SNS) offer unprecedented opportunities for the analysis of human-nature interactions. Previous studies in this field, however, offer limited insights regarding the benefits of automated content analysis especially at large scales, biases arising from the selection of SNS sources, and the predictive power of visitation models based on SNS data. We explore quantitative and qualitative aspects related to intensity, interests and sentiments associated with on-site experiences in 568 protected areas in Israel and the Palestinian Authority. We analyze counts and content of >100,000 photographs and tweets from four different SNSs, calibrate visitation models and predict visitation in unmonitored sites, cluster sites based on the typology of human-nature interactions reflected in online photographs, and characterize the polarity of sentiments associated with experiences in individual sites and clusters thereof. We find benefits in combining data from multiple sources and controlling for biases related to sites’ photogenicity and type of human-nature interactions. Our results suggest that current best estimates of visitation in unmonitored sites underestimate by 39% the actual number of visits. We discuss how the techniques and findings in this study are applicable in the broader context of the management and conservation of sites of environmental or cultural interest.     

全球气候变化中的人类活动视角:社会经济情景的演变

社会经济情景的设定是全球气候变化研究的基础,也是气候变化影响评估的关键环节.本文回顾了社会经济情景的发展过程,阐述了共享社会经济路径的主要特点和最新发展趋势,介绍了区域社会经济情景的构建及在灾害风险领域中的应用,最后对共享社会经济路径的发展进行了展望.     

两次秸秆焚烧导致辽宁重污染过程的气象条件对比分析

利用环境监测站大气污染物数据、地面自动气象站观测资料、L波段加密探空资料和0.125°×0.125°的EC再分析资料,结合MODIS遥感火点监测和HYSPLIT4后向轨迹模拟结果,对比分析了2015年11月8日和2016年11月5日的两次由于东北地区秸秆焚烧导致辽宁重污染天气过程的大气边界层特征、气象扩散条件和大气污染物输送来源等。结果表明:两次过程地面PM_(2.5)浓度均出现快速上升和下降,其中2015年11月8日重污染过程的污染强度较2016年11月5日强,且持续时间更长。2015年11月8日重污染过程的混合层高度较低,其上层的中性层结转变为逆温层结,抑制混合层高度的发展。同时低层冷平流不断侵入到暖平流下方,使得大气层结稳定性增强,维持时间较2016年11月5日重污染过程更长,低层下沉运动和黑龙江西南部、吉林西部污染物的远距离输送增强使得辽宁地面污染物浓度快速累积。而2016年11月5日重污染天气过程主要受深厚冷空气影响,东北地区西部污染物的区域输送和地面风场辐合是地面污染物浓度快速上升的主要原因。     

大气变量物理分解原理及其在区域暴雨分析中的应用

观测的全球大气变量可以物理分解为4个部分:纬圈平均的对称气候、非对称气候、纬圈平均的瞬变对称扰动和非对称扰动。文章用欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)ERA Interim全球再分析资料(0.75°×0.75°)介绍大气瞬变扰动量中的扰动风提取方法及其在区域暴雨分析中的应用。结果表明:用欧洲高分辨率再分析资料物理分解得到的扰动气流能够较好地反映暴雨的落区和风与雨之间的关系,如暴雨带位于低层大气扰动气流的辐合线上和稳定的暴雨带两侧扰动气流多呈对峙的辐合状态。     

Economics of climate change: risk and responsibility by world region

The impacts of predicted climate change will not be distributed evenly around the world. As post-Kyoto negotiations unfold, relating the geographical distribution of projected impacts to responsibility for emissions among world regions is essential for achieving an equitable path forward. This article surveys the current knowledge of regional climate consequences, and delves into the regional predictions of economic assessment models to date, examining how the uncertainties, assumptions and ethical dimensions influence the portrayal of risk at this scale. The few studies that quantitatively compared regional risk and responsibility are reviewed, and the analytical framework from one such study is applied to the 2006 Stern Review's projections to give the first regional comparison to take purchasing power and welfare considerations into account. Synthesizing burden and blame in this way is informative for policy makers; the world's most vulnerable communities—in Africa, the Indian subcontinent, Latin America, and small island states—accounted for less than 33% of global greenhouse gas emissions over the period 1961–2000, but may experience more than 75% of the ensuing climate damages this century. This analysis reinforces the call for industrialized nations to lead mitigation efforts, and to do so decisively and swiftly.     

基于Voronoi图的强降水过程空间非均匀性定量表征方法

利用Voronoi\\Delaunay图模型影响范围和局部动态的特性,提出一种基于动态边界定量提取强降水过程空间非均匀分布特征的新方法,根据1959—2002年中国740站逐日降水资料,构建5日、10日两种时间尺度区域持续性年极端强降水过程序列,用以检验该方法的应用效果,并应用该方法分析了5日(10日)区域持续性年极端强降水过程空间非均匀分布特征及其演变规律。结果表明：与传统的数量统计方法和区域插值方法相比,该方法在强降水空间分布中心、过程内不同强度降水覆盖区域、降水集中区等的定量度量方面具有更高的分辨力和较好实际应用价值;气候趋势分析中在1959—2002年间,5日区域持续性年极端强降水过程出现日期有明显提前趋势。     

ON REGIONAL DIFFERENTIATION OF RIVER WATER ENVIRONMENT CAPACITY AND STRATEGIES TO CONTROL WATER ENVIRONMENT POLLUTION IN CHINA

ＯＮＲＥＧＩＯＮＡＬＤＩＦＦＥＲＥＮＴＩＡＴＩＯＮＯＦＲＩＶＥＲＷＡＴＥＲＥＮＶＩＲＯＮＭＥＮＴＣＡＰＡＣＩＴＹＡＮＤＳＴＲＡＴＥＧＩＥＳＴＯＣＯＮＴＲＯＬＷＡＴＥＲＥＮＶＩＲＯＮＭＥＮＴＰＯＬＬＵＴＩＯＮＩＮＣＨＩＮＡ￥ＷａｎｇＨｕａｄｏｎｇ（王华...     

东昆仑三维重力异常解释方法研究

小波变换是一种广泛应用的信号处理技术,它具有良好的时—频局部化特性。本文探讨了小波变换在分解重力异常中的应用。同时,利用计算机对重力资料的三维定量解释,进行了初步试算。通过东昆仑地区实际资料处理,认为这二种方法在重力资料处理解释中,具有快速、简捷的特点。     

REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN DENOMINATIONAL SWITCHING AMONG WHITE PROTESTANTS*

This study examines the hypothesis that the determinants of denominational switching vary regionally among white American Protestants. Data for the analysis are taken from the National Opinion Research Center's General Social Survey for 1974 through 1984. Using logistic regression, the analysis compares the determinants of switching among respondents residing in the nine Census regions of the U.S. Results reveal significant regional differences in the determinants of switching, especially in the effects of conversion, childhood affiliation and interdenominational marriage.     

1:25万多目标区域地球化学调查样品的分析测试质量监控方法

在1：25万多目标区域地球化学调查样品分析的质量监控方法中，提出以准确度与精密度并重，标准物质监控与重复样监控相结合。利用“多目标化探样品计算机管理软件”，实现对调查样品分析质量监控的自动化管理。应用该系统软件，只要建立好相应的分析数据库，就可自动获得分析报告、报出率、内检样检查、标样检查、标样监控图等监控数据。