考虑LS+AR模型基础数据量的极移预报研究

针对目前极移最小二乘(Least Square, LS)+自回归(AutoRegressive, AR)预报模型的单一数据选取方案, 提出分别考虑LS模型数据量和AR残差数据量的组合数据模式, 并对极移预报时单一数据和组合数据预报结果精度进行分析, 探讨模型输入数据量对极移预报精度的影响. 结果表明, 模型输入数据量的变化对极移预报结果影响较大. 采用组合数据预报的方式相比较于单一数据量预报方式精度更高, 特别是针对30--360 d跨度内的中长期预报, 组合数据量的极移预报精度可比单一数据量预报精度有较大改善. 结论证明组合数据在极移预报时具有一定的优势, 可为以后极移预报数据量选取提供一定的借鉴参考意义.     

Three-dimensional liquid sloshing in a tank with baffles

A numerical model has been developed to study three-dimensional (3D) liquid sloshing in a tank with baffles. The numerical model solves the spatially averaged Navier-Stokes equations, which are constructed on a non-inertial reference frame having six degree-of-freedom (DOF) of motions. The large-eddy-simulation (LES) approach is employed to model turbulence by using the Smagorinsky sub-grid scale (SGS) closure model. The two-step projection method is employed in the numerical solutions, aided by the Bi-CGSTAB technique to solve the pressure Poisson equation for the filtered pressure field. The second-order accurate volume-of-fluid (VOF) method is used to track the distorted and broken free surface. The baffles in the tank are modeled by the concept of virtual boundary force (VBF) method. The numerical model is first validated against the available analytical solution and experimental data for two-dimensional (2D) liquid sloshing in a tank without baffles. The 2D liquid sloshing in tanks with baffles is then investigated. The numerical results are compared with other results from available literatures. Good agreement is obtained. Finally, the model is used to study 3D liquid sloshing in a tank with vertical baffles. The effect of the baffle is investigated and discussed.     

Polynomial chaos expansion and response surface method for nonlinear modelling of reference evapotranspiration

The feasibility of polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) and response surface method (RSM) models is investigated for modelling reference evapotranspiration (ET₀). The modelling results of the proposed models are validated against the M5 model tree and multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) methods. Two meteorological stations, Isparta and Antalya, in the Mediterranean region of Turkey, are inspected. Various input combinations of daily air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed and relative humidity are constructed as input attributes for the ET₀. Generally, the modelling accuracy is increased by increasing the number of inputs. Including wind speed in the model inputs considerably increases their accuracy in modelling ET₀. Mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), agreement index (d) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) are used as comparison criteria. The PCE is the most accurate model in estimating daily ET₀, giving the lowest MAE (0.036 and 0.037 mm) and RMSE (0.047 and 0.050 mm) and the highest d (0.9998 and 0.9999) and NSE (0.9992 and 0.9996) with the four-input PCE models for Isparta and Antalya, respectively.     

滦县地磁场井下观测系统抗干扰效果

近距离铁磁性物质干扰(农田耕作、基建等)、直流供电干扰(高压直流输电、地电阻率观测等)是地磁场地面观测的主要干扰方式。在滦县地震台布设地磁场井下观测系统,检验井下观测的抗干扰效果,结果发现,地磁场井下观测可抑制近距离铁磁性物质干扰,但无法抑制直流供电干扰(可通过避让一定距离解决),该分析结果为未来地震监测手段的选取提供技术参考指标和依据。     

采集参数对音频大地电磁法二维非线性共轭梯度反演结果的影响研究

非线性共轭梯度(NLCG)算法广泛应用于音频大地电磁法(AMT)二维反演中,并且取得了良好效果.本文以Rodi(2001)提出的大地电磁法二维NLCG反演理论和算法为基础,开展AMT野外数据采集参数(测线长度、点距、频点数)对二维反演效果的影响研究.通过低阻理论模型的试验结果表明:野外数据采集参数的选择应该以探测目标体的规模、深度以及背景电阻率为依据,测线长度应大于目标体宽度和探测深度的两倍以上,异常体上方测点数及探测深度范围内的频点数至少大于三个.     

Optimum design and application of non‐traditional tuned mass damper toward seismic response control with experimental test verification

A variant type of tuned mass damper (TMD) termed as ‘non‐traditional TMD (NTTMD)’ is recently proposed. Mainly focusing on the employment of TMD for seismic response control, especially for base‐isolated or high‐rise structures, this paper aims to derive design formulae of NTTMDs based on two methodologies with different targets. One is the fixed points theory with the performance index set as the maximum magnitude of the frequency response function of the relative displacement of the primary structure with respect to the ground acceleration, and the other is the stability maximization criterion (SMC) to make the free vibration of the primary structure decay in the minimum duration. Such optimally designed NTTMDs are compared with traditional TMDs by conducting both numerical simulations and experiments. The optimum‐designed NTTMDs are demonstrated to be more effective than the optimum‐designed traditional TMDs, with smaller stroke length required. In particular, the effectiveness of the TMDs combined with a base‐isolated structure is investigated by small‐scale model experimental tests subjected to a time scaled long period impulsive excitation, and it is demonstrated that the SMC‐based NTTMD can suppress structural free vibration responses in the minimum duration and requires much smaller accommodation space. Additionally, a small‐scale shaking table experiment on a high‐rise bending model attached with a SMC‐based NTTMD is conducted. This study indicates that NTTMD has a high potential to apply to seismic response control or retrofit of structures such as base‐isolated or central column‐integrated high‐rise structures even if only a limited space is available for accommodating TMDs. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatiotemporal variation and driving forces of reference evapotranspiration in Jing River Basin,northwest China

Evapotranspiration is an important component of the hydrological cycle, which integrates atmospheric demands and surface conditions. Research on spatial and temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) enables understanding of climate change and its effects on hydrological processes and water resources. In this study, ET_o was estimated by the FAO‐56 Penman–Monteith method in the Jing River Basin in China, based on daily data from 37 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2005. ET_o trends were detected by the Mann–Kendall test in annual, seasonal, and monthly timescales. Sensitivity coefficients were used to examine the contribution of important meteorological variables to ET_o. The influence of agricultural activities, especially irrigation on ET_o was also analyzed. We found that ET_o showed a decreasing trend in most of the basin in all seasons, except for autumn, which showed an increasing trend. Mean maximum temperature was generally the most sensitive parameter for ET_o, followed by relative humidity, solar radiation, mean minimum temperature, and wind speed. Wind speed was the most dominant factor for the declining trend in ET_o. The more significant decrease in ET_o for agricultural and irrigation stations was mainly because of the more significant decrease in wind speed and sunshine hours, a mitigation in climate warming, and more significant increase in relative humidity compared with natural stations and non‐irrigation stations. Changes in ET_o and the sensitivity coefficient of meteorological variables in relation to ET_o were also affected by topography. Better understanding of ET_o response to climate change will enable efficient use of agricultural production and water resources, which could improve the ecological environment in Jing River Basin. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Review of the IAG GeoPT™ and Certification Programmes,their Protocols,and the Differences between the Original and Potential Modifications to the Certification Protocol

The IAG conducts two programmes, the GeoPT ^? proficiency test and a certification programme that are closely interconnected. Both support the quality control/quality assurance activities of geochemical laboratories. Each derives an estimate of ‘true value’ for a number of samples, but arrives at that estimate, and its uncertainty, differently. This review discusses the history of the two programmes and compares the ‘true values’ and their uncertainties obtained through each. It then considers ‘fitness‐for‐purpose’ issues related to both GeoPT ^? and certification uncertainties. Issues related to potential modification of the IAG protocol for certification are also considered.     

Evaluation of a Quality Control Monitor Material for the Routine Electron Probe Microanalysis of Kimberlite Exploration Garnets

Election probe microanalysis of indicator minerals is extensively used in the exploration for kimberlite deposits, the evaluation of specific kimberlite occurrences for their diamond bearing potential and to classify grains into different chemical and lithological mantle associations. Kimberlite exploration programmes can involve several tens of thousands of indicator mineral analyses. Procedures for monitoring data quality and consistency of analyses across large data sets are commonly absent. Suitable monitor minerals should be used to verify the data quality of kimberlite exploration and evaluation data sets. This material should have a suitable composition, be homogenous, be available in sufficient quantities and have a similar appearance to the unknown samples. Garnet P1, a megacryst garnet from the Premier kimberlite, was found to have a suitable composition as a monitor for kimberlite garnet analyses. Data were collected on the monitor material at regular intervals during routine analyses, over an extended period, both as a fixed grain mounted on the sample holder and as separate grains set within batches of routine samples. The data were evaluated to assess the quality and consistency in the analyses of large data sets over time. The monitor material was also analysed at independent laboratories using their routine analytical set-up and calibration procedures for comparative purposes. Values are given for the mean ± 2s range, which can serve as guide values for acceptable analyses for all elements.