Crossover from Nonlinearity Controlled to Heterogeneity Controlled Mixing in Two-Phase Porous Media Flows

We use high resolution Monte Carlo simulations to study the dispersive mixing in two-phase, immiscible, porous media flow that results from the interaction of the nonlinearities in the flow equations with geologic heterogeneity. Our numerical experiments show that distinct dispersive regimes occur depending on the relative strength of nonlinearity and heterogeneity. In particular, for a given degree of multiscale heterogeneity, controlled by the Hurst exponent which characterizes the underlying stochastic model for the heterogeneity, linear and nonlinear flows are essentially identical in their degree of dispersion, if the heterogeneity is strong enough. As the heterogeneity weakens, the dispersion rates cross over from those of linear heterogeneous flows to those typical of nonlinear homogeneous flows.     

控制网优化设计中的蒙特卡罗法

介绍了蒙特卡罗法的基本步骤以及伪随机数的检验方法；结合工程控制网的设计给出了一个实际算例，算例的结果表明该方法切实有效。     

Dynamic stochastic estimation of physical variables

A fundamental problem facing the physical sciences today is analysis of natural variations and mapping of spatiotemporal processes. Detailed maps describing the space/time distribution of groundwater contaminants, atmospheric pollutant deposition processes, rainfall intensity variables, external intermittency functions, etc. are tools whose importance in practical applications cannot be overestimated. Such maps are valuable inputs for numerous applications including, for example, solute transport, storm modeling, turbulent-nonturbulent flow characterization, weather prediction, and human exposure to hazardous substances. The approach considered here uses the spatiotemporal random field theory to study natural space/time variations and derive dynamic stochastic estimates of physical variables. The random field model is constructed in a space/time continuum that explicitly involves both spatial and temporal aspects and provides a rigorous representation of spatiotemporal variabilities and uncertainties. This has considerable advantages as regards analytical investigations of natural processes. The model is used to study natural space/time variations of springwater calcium ion data from the Dyle River catchment area, Belgium. This dataset is characterized by a spatially nonhomogeneous and temporally nonstationary variability that is quantified by random field parameters, such as orders of space/time continuity and random field increments. A rich class of covariance models is determined from the properties of the random field increments. The analysis leads to maps of continuity orders and covariances reflecting space/time calcium ion correlations and trends. Calcium ion estimates and the associated statistical errors are calculated at unmeasured locations/instants over the Dyle region using a space/time kriging algorithm. In practice, the interpretation of the results of the dynamic stochastic analysis should take into consideration the scale effects.     

随机地震荷载作用下饱和粉土的液化特性

为了考虑随机地震荷载作用下饱和粉土的液化特性，研究了如何通过合理的地震响应分析确定饱和粉土层受到的随机地震荷载，进一步探讨了随机地震荷载作用下的动三轴试验技术，以及利用此种试验分析饱和粉土液化特性的方法。研究结果为形成判别饱和粉土层地震液化可能性的新方法提供了依据。     

Flexible spectral methods for the generation of random fields with power-law semivariograms

Random field generators serve as a tool to model heterogeneous media for applications in hydrocarbon recovery and groundwater flow. Random fields with a power-law variogram structure, also termed fractional Brownian motion (fBm) fields, are of interest to study scale dependent heterogeneity effects on one-phase and two-phase flow. We show that such fields generated by the spectral method and the Inverse Fast Fourier Transform (IFFT) have an incorrect variogram structure and variance. To illustrate this we derive the prefactor of the fBm spectral density function, which is required to generate the fBm fields. We propose a new method to generate fBm fields that introduces weighting functions into the spectral method. It leads to a flexible and efficient algorithm. The flexibility permits an optimal choice of summation points (that is points in frequency space at which the weighting function is calculated) specific for the autocovariance structure of the field. As an illustration of the method, comparisons between estimated and expected statistics of fields with an exponential variogram and of fBm fields are presented. For power-law semivariograms, the proposed spectral method with a cylindrical distribution of the summation points gives optimal results.     

对近年来地震危险区预测效果的评估

采用R值评分方法，对中国地震局地球物理研究所2001—2004年度划定的全国地震危险区进行了评估，2001—2004年度的R值分别为0．265、0．182、0．293、0．404。近两年的R值相对高些，为了排除随机成分，做了相应的随机预报试验检验，并对地震落入危险区的随机概率作了估计。结果表明，4个年度的R值明显高于随机预报，除2002年度外，地震随机落入危险区的概率很低，不到2％。这说明中国地震局地球物理研究所实际地震危险区划分取得了一定的效果，且逐年提高。     

Determination of S-wave velocity structure using microtremors and spac method applied in Thessaloniki (Greece)

Array measurements of microtremors at 16 sites in the city of Thessaloniki were performed to estimate the V_s velocity of soil formations for site effect analysis. The spatial autocorrelation method was used to determine phase velocity dispersion curves in the frequency range from 0.8–1.5 to 6–7 Hz. A Rayleigh wave inversion technique (stochastic method) was subsequently applied to determine the Vs profiles at all the examined sites. The determination of V_s profiles reached a depth of 320 m. Comparisons with V_s values from cross-hole tests at the same sites proved the reliability of the SPAC method. The accuracy of the V_s profiles, the ability to reach large penetration depths in densely populated urban areas and its low cost compared to conventional geophysical prospecting, make Mictrotremor Exploration Method very attractive and useful for microzonation and site effects studies. An example of its application for the site characterization in Thessaloniki is presented herein.     

具有空间分布裂缝岩石的随机介质模型

利用随机过程的谱展开理论以及Hudson等人的裂纹介质模型构造一种裂纹数密度是空间平稳随机过程的随机介质模型。这个模型可以将裂纹的微观参数(裂纹数密度)与裂纹介质的宏观性质(弹性常数)联系起来,能灵活、有效地描述实际非均匀裂纹介质。模型算例表明,弹性常数的空问分布特征与裂纹数密度的有差别,而且对不同的弹性常数影响不同。通过改编自相关长度的大小,可以模拟裂缝在两个坐标轴方向上具有不同分布尺度的情况。最后,利用高阶的交错网格有限差分方法,我们模拟了地震波在具有随机分布裂缝岩石中的传播特征。     

Improving Sequential Simulation with a Structured Path Guided by Information Content

Multiple-point simulation is a newly developed geostatistical method that aims at combining the strengths of two mainstream geostatistical methods: object-based and pixel-based methods. It maintains the flexibility of pixel-based algorithms in data conditioning, while enhancing its capability of reproducing realistic geological shapes, which is traditionally reserved to object-based algorithms. However, the current snesim program for multiple-point simulation has difficulty in reproducing large-scale structures, which have a significant impact on the flow response. To address this problem, we propose to simulate along a structured path based on an information content measure. This structured path accounts for not only the information from the data, but also some prior structural information provided by geological knowledge. Various case studies show a better reproduction of large-scale structures. This concept of simulating along a structured path guided by information content can be applied to any sequential simulation algorithms, including traditional variogram-based two-point geostatistical algorithms.     

地图数字化位置误差的协方差函数

针对数字化地图的精度 ,利用平稳随机过程的理论来估计位置数据的不确定性 ,提出了一套计算方法 ,主要内容包括运用平稳随机过程的各态历经性 ,对任意点坐标的X、Y按距离拟合求定其协方差 ,其特点是应用了统计估计原理 ,使得到的结果更为合理和简便。