Truncation of the distribution of ground-motion residuals

Recent studies to assess very long-term seismic hazard in the USA and in Europe have highlighted the importance of the upper tail of the ground-motion distribution at the very low annual frequencies of exceedance required by these projects. In particular, the use of an unbounded lognormal distribution to represent the aleatory variability of ground motions leads to very high and potentially unphysical estimates of the expected level of shaking. Current practice in seismic hazard analysis consists of truncating the ground-motion distribution at a fixed number (ε _max) of standard deviations (σ). However, there is a general lack of consensus regarding the truncation level to adopt. This paper investigates whether a physical basis for choosing ε _max can be found, by examining records with large positive residuals from the dataset used to derive one of the ground-motion models of the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project. In particular, interpretations of the selected records in terms of causative physical mechanisms are reviewed. This leads to the conclusion that even in well-documented cases, it is not possible to establish a robust correlation between specific physical mechanisms and large values of the residuals, and thus obtain direct physical constraints on ε _max. Alternative approaches based on absolute levels of ground motion and numerical simulations are discussed. However, the choice of ε _max is likely to remain a matter of judgment for the foreseeable future, in view of the large epistemic uncertainties associated with these alternatives. Additional issues arise from the coupling between ε _max and σ, which causes the truncation level in terms of absolute ground motion to be dependent on the predictive equation used. Furthermore, the absolute truncation level implied by ε _max will also be affected if σ is reduced significantly. These factors contribute to rendering a truncation scheme based on a single ε _max value impractical.     

基于有限比较法研究万州区滑带土干重度的概率分布

对万州区滑坡滑带土干重度的86个测试数据进行拟合优度检验,发现多种传统的检验方法都既可以接受正态分布也可以接受对数正态分布.在传统检验方法失效的情况下,引入了有限比较法,确定了干重度的最优概率分布为正态分布,并用统计模拟的方法分析了有限比较法选中真实分布的概率.     

Relationships between Genetic Diversity of Vascular Plant Species and Climate Factors

Genetic diversity is crucial for plants to respond to global climate change, and exploring relationships between genetic diversity and climatic factors may help predict how global climate change will shape the genetic diversity of plants in the future. So far, however, the extent and magnitude of the impact of climatic factors on the genetic diversity of plants has not been clarified. We collected data from 68 published papers on two widely used measures of genetic diversity of populations (average expected heterozygosity (He) and average observed heterozygosity (Ho)) and on localities of populations of 79 vascular plants, and extracted data on 19 climatic factors from WorldClim. We then explored the relationships between measures of genetic diversity and climatic factors using linear regressions. He of plant populations was significantly correlated with climatic factors in 58.7% (44) of the 75 species that used He as a measure of genetic diversity, and Ho was correlated with climatic factors in 65.1% (41) of the 63 species that used this genetic diversity measure. In general, Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter, Precipitation Seasonality, Precipitation of Driest Quarter and Temperature Seasonality played a vital role in shaping He, and Ho was mostly correlated with Precipitation of Warmest Quarter, Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter, Precipitation of Driest Quarter and Precipitation of Driest Month. Also, the proportion of the significant correlations between genetic diversity of populations and climatic factors was higher for woody than for herbaceous species, and different climatic factors played different roles in shaping genetic diversity of these two growth forms. Our results suggest that climate may play an important role in shaping genetic diversity of plant populations, that climatic change in the future may alter genetic diversity of plants, and that genetic diversity of different plant forms may respond to climatic change differently.     

Calculation method for thickness of discontinuous boundary layer of engineering pavement

The boundary layer is a buffer layer of water and heat exchange between the atmosphere and permafrost.Based on the atmospheric boundary layer and heat transfer theory,we established a method for determining the boundary layer thickness of engineering pavement(asphalt and sand pavement)in permafrost region.The boundary layer can be divided into the Boundary Layer Above Surface(BLAS)and the Boundary Layer Below Surface(BLBS).From in-situ monitoring data,the thickness of BLAS was determined through the laminar thickness,and the thickness of BLBS was determined through ground temperature,the heat conduction function,and the mean attenuation function(α).For asphalt pavement,the BLAS thickness varied between 2.90 and 4.31 mm and that of BLBS varied between 28.00 and 45.38 cm.For sand pavement,the BLAS thickness varied between 2.55 and 3.29 mm and that of BLBS varied between 15.00 and 46.44 cm.The thickness varied with freezing and thawing processes.The boundary layer calculation method described in this paper can provide a relatively stable boundary for temperature field analysis.     

帕隆藏布河流纵剖面演化的最小功模式

河流地貌最小功原理表明河流纵误时面形态将向力示使流速增大的方向演化，据此推导出矩形流域全程流速的平均值（u^-）与河流纵误时面形态指数（N）的关系式：u^∝-f(N)={1/2-1/[(N 1)(N 2)]}^1/2，f(N)被称为流速函数。这一最小功模式表明河流纵剖面演化方向是N由小变大。以西藏帕隆藏布中上游流域系统、干流全程及Ⅰ级阶地为例，由最小功模式计算的全程流速均值与实测值相吻合，从而检验了上述最小功原理和数学模式。     

2013 年汛期ECMWF集合统计量产品的降水预报检验与分析

2013年汛期ECMWF集合预报在江南、四川盆地和华北地区强降水过程中的表现如下：对江南和四川盆地强降水,概率匹配、融合产品、最大值、75%和90%分位数在大雨和暴雨预报中较确定性预报有明显正技巧,融合产品和90%分位数的技巧评分最稳定;对华北地区强降水,仅90%分位数在大雨预报中有一致的正技巧;上述统计量产品的中期预报技巧评分总体要高于短期预报,对四川盆地（华北地区）暖区强降水预报技巧评分总体要高（低）于对该区域锋面强降水预报技巧评分。根据概率匹配和融合产品各自特点,综合二者原理,设计出概率匹配-融合和融合-概率匹配两种新方案。结果显示,在暴雨和大暴雨降水预报中,融合-概率匹配的评分较融合产品有一定提高。     

Mineral-Potential Mapping for MVT Deposits with Limited Data Sets Using Landsat Data and Geological Evidence in the Borden Basin, Northern Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada

Posterior probabilities of occurrence for Zn-Pb Mississippi Valley Type (MVT) mineralization were calculated based on evidence maps derived from regional geology, Landsat-TM, RADARSAT-1, a digital elevation model and aeromagnetic data sets in the Borden Basin of northern Baffin Island, Canada. The vector representation of geological contacts and fault traces were refined according to their characteristics identified in Landsat-TM, RADARSAT-1, DEM, slope, aspect, and shaded relief data layers. Within the study area, there is an association between the occurrence of MVT mineralization and proximity to the contact of platformal carbonates and shale units of the adjacent geological formation. A spatial association also tends to exist between mineralization and proximity to E-W and NW-SE trending faults. The relationships of known MVT occurrences with the geological features were investigated by spatial statistical techniques to generate evidence maps. Supervised classification and filtering were applied to Landsat-TM data to divide the Society Cliffs Formation into major stratigraphic subunits. Because iron oxides have been observed at some of the MVT occurrences within the Borden Basin, Landsat-TM data band ratio (3/1) was calculated to highlight the potential presence of iron-oxides as another evidence map. Processed Landsat-TM data and other derived geological evidence maps provided useful indicators for identifying areas of potential MVT mineralization. Weights of evidence and logistic regression were used independently to integrate and generate posterior probability maps showing areas of potential mineralization based on all derived evidence maps. Results indicate that in spite of the lack of important data sets such as stream or lake sediment geochemistry, Landsat-TM data and regional geological data can be useful for MVT mineral-potential mapping.     

模糊划分矩阵在岩土参数概率分布中的应用

讨论如何在小样本条件下用已有的过程经验与试验资料确定岩土参数概率分布,用模糊划分矩阵与BAYES方法相结合,给出由小样本试验数据确定岩土参数的概率分布。     

THE RESPONSE OF SUMMER DRYNESS/WETNESS PROBABILITY IN NORTH CHINA TO GLOBAL WARMING

Using the data of summer(June—August)precipitation during the period of 1951—1990 in 14 stations over NorthChina,the wetness probability(WP)series based on gamma distribution has been built.Main temporal and spatial char-acteristics for the series of WP in the stations are extracted by using empirical orthogonal functions(EOFs).The spatialpatterns show that the dryness/wetness variations in the stations in the area are consistent with each other and its maincharacteristics can be represented by the WP series in Beijing.Having analysed the WP series of 120 years(1870—1989)in Beijing,the results show that the dry tendency has a re-sponse to the global warming.The variation of the dryness/wetness in the stations is associated with the temperaturevariation in the Northern Hemisphere.Their relation is negative.The degree of the reliance is associated with the centuryvariation of the temperature.     

全球增暖1.5/2℃下中国区域极端降水的风险变化及其影响因子

利用24个CMIP6全球气候模式的逐日降水模拟资料,基于广义极值分布(GEV)模型,研究了全球增暖1.5/2℃下我国20、50和100 a重现期极端降水的未来风险变化。可以发现,相对于历史时期(1995—2014年),全球升温1.5和2℃下极端降水发生概率风险空间分布相近,总体上呈现增加趋势,但额外增暖0.5℃将导致更高的风险。如50 a重现期极端降水,在增暖1.5/2℃下其重现期将分别变为17/14 a,极端降水将变得更加频繁。不同区域对气候变暖的响应存在区域差异,其中中国西部长江黄河中上游和青藏高原地区、中国东部长江黄河中下游及其以南地区,极端降水发生概率比达到3以上,局部更是达到5以上,为我国极端降水气候变化响应高敏感区域。进一步,基于概率分布函数从理论角度探讨了位置和尺度参数对发生概率风险的影响与贡献度量,并用于探讨极端降水气候平均态和变率变化对极端降水发生风险的影响,结果显示：位置和尺度参数的增量变化、风险变化率存在着显著的东西部差异,从而导致极端降水发生风险的影响因素存在差异。如中国西部尽管极端降水气候平均态和变率变化幅度不大,但因风险变化率较高,从而导致该区域的发生风险大...