江西华信神威气象数值预报业务系统简介

对神威集群机上机前的准备工作,即软件的安装和配置进行了详细介绍,并在阐述江西中尺度数值模式系统的基础上,介绍了目前江西省环境预报中心所提供的数值预报产品,以及具体的获取途径和使用方法,以使现有的数值预报资源在全省各级台站中能够得到充分利用。     

成矿预测中证据权重法与信息量法及其比较

本文简述了证据权重法及信息量法的理论基础及计算方法,并对二者进行了比较,同时分别用证据权重法模型和信息量法模型对同一研究区进行预测,取得了极为相似的效果。     

防治矿井煤和瓦斯突出数据管理系统

煤矿防治煤和瓦斯突出是一项极其复杂的系统工程,人们逐步探索煤与瓦斯突出规律,人工计算已不能适应大量数据处理与分析之需要,将计算机数据库及计算机绘图功能运用于防突工作中,能较好地处理防突数据,提高防突预测预报的针对性和准确性,使之更好地为矿井安全生产服务。      

霍泉灌区出流量预测模型

根据灌溉用水决策支持系统(DSS)和实时配水的要求,建立了霍泉泉源年出流量随机预测模型和月出流量实时预测模型.经分析表明,随机AR(p)预测模型较适合预测泉源的年出流量,月出流量实时预测模型的预测精度也较高     

一个考虑SST变化的月数值预报结果分析

根据陈隆勋等对海温月季变化研究的结果提出除了从冬到春的过渡月份外,ＳＳＴ距平的相邻月的月际变化不大。在此基础上,选了１９９６年６月并利用ＣＣＭ１动力气候模式作了月数值预报。在预报中,利用１９９６年６月１日００Ｚ中国国家气象中心Ｔ６４的客观分析资料作初值,利用１９９６年５月的ＳＳＴ距平加到６月气候ＳＳＴ作为６月的ＳＳＴ,作了一个月数值预报。结果表明,考虑了ＳＳＴ变化的数值预报优于用气候海温作的数值预报。前者的５００ｈＰａ高度场预报距平、８５０ｈＰａ纬向风预报距平、中国地区气温预报距平和降水预报距平分布均十分接近于实际观测分布。     

Possible Cause-Effect Relationships Between Vrancea (Romania) Earthquakes and Some Global Geophysical Phenomena

The possibility that the Earth's tides are a triggering factor of Vrancea subcrustal earthquakes is investigated in the first part of this paper. A possible correlation between Vrancea subcrustal earthquakes and geomagnetic jerks is demonstrated in the second part. The last part of the paper presents a number of results concerning a possible relationship between the regularities of strong Vrancea subcrustal seismicity and the Chandler nutation parameters. An attempt is made to integrate all of these phenomena in a more general framework that takes into account physical processes in the Earth mantle and core. A long-term prediction of the next strong Vrancea earthquake is finally attempted.     

黑河出山径流量年际变化特征和趋势研究

根据有关水文气象台站的观测数据,利用定级分类,滑动平均和波谱分析等方法,对黑河出山径流（莺落峡水文站）年际变化特征进行了分析研究,发现黑河出出径流的多年变化具有持续性,周期性和丰枯水变化较平稳,波幅不大等特性,并在此基础上对其未来变化的趋势进行了预测和分析。     

The Most Geomagnetically Disturbed 24 Hours

Geomagnetically disturbed periods, characterized by the maximum average 24-hour global disturbances are considered. Gumbel's first asymptotic distribution of extreme values is used to predict the occurrence of major magnetic storm periods. A geomagnetic storm similar to the one recorded on March 13 - 14, 1998, would be expected to occur within the next 13 solar cycles. The present analysis corroborates the substantial increase of the level of magnetic disturbances from solar cycle to solar cycle.     

4-Dimensional Models of Deformation of the Earth's Crust and Earthquake Prediction

Traditionally, when creating 4-D models of elastic offsets in the Earth's crust, the data from geodesic and GPS monitoring of offsets on the ground surface, earthquake catalogs, monitoring of the water level and radon content in wells, sea level fluctuations, as well as gravitational and magnetic fields, etc., can be taken as bases for information. In essence, the reason for creating a 4-D model of slow elastic deformations is to approximate the process by a set of plane deformation solitons (solitary waves). The parameters of a set of deformation solitons are obtained by a two-stage inversion. First, the parameters of the model are determined in a kinematic way by the use of a modified simplification of the method. Then, a calibration of the amplitude characteristics of the model is carried out in terms of elastic dynamic offsets. Taking Ural, Northern Tianshan, Greece, and China as examples, models for these regions are created on the basis of seismological, geodesic, deformation, hydrogeological, and     

美国全球变化研究现状

美国的全球变化研究主要由美国全球变化研究计划（ＵＳＧＣＲＰ）支持,重点资助季节—年际尺度气候变率,十年—百年尺度的气候变化,臭氧、ＵＶ辐射以及大气化学的变化,土地利用以及陆地、海洋生态系统的变化等４个领域。当前,水汽与云仍是全球变化研究中不确定性较大的一个方面,因而受到关注。关于气候变化的信号检测以及成因分析也是一个研究热点。气候模拟研究是全球变化研究的一个主要方法。卫星资料在全球变化研究中的应用取得了大量成果。近期美国在全球变化研究领域的重点是气候模拟,短期气候预测,十年—百年尺度的气候变化,臭氧、ＵＶ辐射以及大气化学的变化,地表以及陆地、海洋生态系统变化,对全球变化的区域尺度估计,卫星资料的应用,气候变化影响的国家级评估等８个方面。