A late Holocene winter monsoon record inferred from the palaeo-aeolian sand dune in the southeastern Mu Us Desert, northern China

The variation of the Asian winter monsoonal strength has seriously affected the climate and environmental conditions in the Asian monsoonal region, and even in marginal islands and the ocean in the East Asian region. However, relevant understanding remains unclear due to the lack of suitable geological materials and effective proxies in the key study areas. Here, we present a grain-size record derived from the palaeo-aeolian sand dune in the southeastern Mu Us Desert, together with other proxies and OSL dating, which reflect a relatively detailed history of the winter monsoon and abrupt environmental events during the past 4.2 ka. Our grain-size standard deviation model indicated that >224 μm content can be considered as an indicator of the intensity of Asian winter monsoon, and it shows declined around 4.2-2.1 ka, enhanced but unstable in 2.1-0.9 ka, and obviously stronger since then. In addition, several typical climate events were also documented, forced by the periodic variation of winter monsoonal intensity. These include the cold intervals of 4.2, 2.8, 1.4 ka, and the Little Ice Age (LIA), and relatively warm sub-phases around 3.0, 2.1, 1.8 ka, and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), which were roughly accordant with the records of the aeolian materials, peat, stalagmites, ice cores, and sea sediments in various latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Combined with the previous progresses of the Asian summer monsoon, we preliminarily confirmed a millennial-scale anti-correlation of Asian winter and summer monsoons in the Late Holocene epoch. This study suggests that the evolution of the palaeo-aeolian sand dune has the potential for comprehending the history of Asian monsoon across the desert regions of the modern Asian monsoonal margin in northern China.     

Effects of demand estimates on the evaluation and optimality of service centre locations

Public service systems, such as emergency health care, police or fire brigades, are critical for day-to-day functioning of the society. To design and operate these systems efficiently much data needs to be collected and properly utilised. Here, we use the OpenStreetMap (OSM) data to model the demand points (DPs), which approximate the geographical location of customers, and the road network, which is used to access or distribute services. We consider all inhabitants as customers, and therefore to estimate the demand, we use the available population grids. People are changing their location in the course of the day and thus the demand for services is changing accordingly. In this paper, we investigate how the used demand estimate affects the optimal design of a public service system. We calculate and compare efficient designs corresponding to two demand models, a night-time demand model when the majority of inhabitants rest at home and the demand model derived from the 24-hour average of the population density. We propose a simple measure to quantify the differences between population grids and we estimate how the size of differences affects the optimal structure of a public service system. Our analyses reveal that the efficiency of the service system is not only dependent on the placement strategy, but an inappropriate demand model has significant effects when designing a system as well as when evaluating its efficiency.     

二维地震勘探在新疆准东煤田梧桐窝子煤矿区煤层对比中的应用

通过人工合成地震记录,了解煤层反射波形成机理,在常规地震时间剖面中确定标准反射波,根据标准反射波连续性、时间间距、动力学特征,在新疆准东煤田梧桐窝子煤矿区煤层对比中取得了较好的应用效果,通过实践证明利用地震资料进行煤层对比方法是可行的,可以在复杂地区提高煤层对比的可靠性。     

专题地质填图及有关问题讨论

面积性地质调查及填图是今后地质调查的主要工作,如何做好这个工作,并实现地质调查和科研一体化,特别是在已有填图基础上,如何部署和开展新的填图工作,是一个亟待回答的新问题。专题地质填图是针对存在的重要地质或资源、环境问题,或是针对特定目标地质体等,以解决特定问题或满足社会特定需求为主要目的、填图与研究融为一体的地质填图,填图的范围和比例尺依据解决问题和目标地质体而定。专题地质填图是以问题和需求为驱动,是对已有的综合地质填图的补充和提高,是高效实现地调科研一体化的一种方式。论述了专题填图的内涵、必要性,以及开展专题填图的方式和方法。     

Faults in the Baikal region: morphostructural and structure-genetic features (case study of the Buguldeika fault junction)

Lineament analysis is applied to map the pattern of the Obruchev fault system in the Buguldeika Village area, where several fault zones (Olkhon, Primorsky, Prikhrebtovyi, Buguldeika, and Kurtun) make up a junction. As inferred from the predominant directions of genetically related lineaments, the Olkhon, Primorsky, and Prikhrebtovyi faults originated under NW-SE extension and compression. The extension and compression settings within these zones are reconstructed by analysis of lineaments that have prominent and poor geomorphic expression, respectively. However, the pattern of lineaments well expressed in the surface topography within a weakly deformed block corresponds to reverse slip, while that of poorly pronounced lineaments corresponds to left-lateral strike slip. The study confirms the idea that the latest extension (rifting) stage in the Baikal region reactivated fault zones but did not deform blocks. The blocks store record of residual deformation produced by previous settings of regional compression and shear. The obtained results agree with earlier tectonophysical analysis of faults and fractures in the area and prove the applicability of the suggested approach to map the fault patterns and reconstruct their respective stress settings in areas that underwent multiple deformation events of different ages.     

Ozone and climate governance: An implausible path dependence

Many observers and commentators have used the case of ozone science and politics as a role model for climate science and politics. Two crucial assumptions underpin this view: (1) that science drives policymaking, and (2) that a unified, international science assessment is essential to provide “one voice” of science that speaks to policymakers. I will argue that these assumptions are theoretically problematic and empirically questionable. We should realize that both cases, ozone and climate, are profoundly different and only have superficial similarities. Ozone science developed late, but efforts to protect the ozone layer happened swiftly. The relation between carbon dioxide and climate change has been studied for many decades, but efforts to control global warming have failed so far. I will discuss the linear model of the science-policy relationship and use the typology of tame and wicked problems to explain this stark difference.     

确定砂土动剪切模量和阻尼比的方法对比

确定土体动剪切模量的常用方法有规范法、Kumar法和自相关函数法,确定相应阻尼比的方法有规范法、Das and Luo法、Kokusho法、Kumar法和互相关函数法,为了分析不同方法所产生差异,实现定量化对比分析,笔者以福建标准砂（粒径为0.5~1.0 mm）为研究对象,采用不排水的应力控制动三轴试验,探讨不同的确定土体动剪切模量和阻尼比方法的差异性,并给出了不同土体条件建议选用的方法。结果表明：1）3种方法确定动剪切模量的结果有一定的差异,随剪应变的增大结果的差异逐渐增大,有效围压对结果的差异性有所影响,当剪应变为4×10^-3,有效围压为100 kPa时,3种方法差异显著,相对误差最大接近20%;2）而5种方法确定阻尼比的结果差异显著,随着剪应变的增大,5种方法确定的阻尼比相对误差大体上均在迅速减小,只有规范法在有效围压为100 kPa时,其相对误差有较小的增大趋势;5种方法中,Kumar法确定的阻尼比最接近平均阻尼比,互相关函数法远高于平均阻尼比,Das and Luo法和Kokusho法确定的阻尼比基本一致但低于平均阻尼比。建议以后的工程应用中,加载方式为应力控制时,可采用自相关函数法确定动剪切模量,采用Kumar法确定阻尼比,二者确定的动剪切模量和阻尼比均最接近平均值。     

Policy options to streamline the carbon market for agricultural nitrous oxide emissions

The majority of emissions of nitrous oxide – a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) – are from agricultural sources, particularly nitrogen fertilizer applications. A growing focus on these emission sources has led to the development in the United States of GHG offset protocols that could enable payment to farmers for reducing fertilizer use or implementing other nitrogen management strategies. Despite the development of several protocols, the current regional scope is narrow, adoption by farmers is low, and policy implementation of protocols has a significant time lag. Here we utilize existing research and policy structures to propose an ‘umbrella’ approach for nitrogen management GHG emissions protocols that has the potential to streamline the policy implementation and acceptance of such protocols. We suggest that the umbrella protocol could set forth standard definitions common across multiple protocol options, and then modules could be further developed as scientific evidence advances. Modules could be developed for specific crops, regions, and practices. We identify a policy process that could facilitate this development in concert with emerging scientific research and conclude by acknowledging potential benefits and limitations of the approach.

Key policy insights

• Agricultural greenhouse gas market options are growing, but are still underutilized

• Streamlining protocol development through an umbrella process could enable quicker development of protocols across new crops, regions, and practices

• Effective protocol development must not compromise best available science and should follow a rigorous pathway to ensure appropriate implementation

     

Mid-Century Strategies: pathways to a low-carbon future?

Since the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, both national and subnational governments have been encouraged to submit Mid-Century Strategies, outlining how they would reach their deep decarbonization goals. However, research on the design and potential of these strategies has been very limited. To address this shortcoming, here we assess 13 such strategies – six national, seven subnational – in a comparative fashion. We find that the energy-economy-climate models underpinning these strategies are generally of high quality, though national jurisdictions generally performed better. However, most strategies are not plausible without significant changes to policy, and the industrial sector in particular presents a major limitation. The strategies are helpful in revealing this gap, but much works remains to be done for plausible mid-century decarbonization trajectories to become a reality. We also find that public input and societal participation in strategy building were a double-edged sword depending on the constellation of domestic preferences.

• Governmental Mid-Century Strategies for deep decarbonization are underpinned by high-quality energy-economy-climate models

• Governments’ proposed strategies require significant new policies, as even among jurisdictions that have an MCS, extant policies are insufficient to achieve deep decarbonization

• No jurisdiction studied has yet put forward a plausible decarbonization policy for the industrial sector.

• Public input and societal participation can be a double-edged sword: they can increase durability of the strategy but also enable opposing forces to mobilize against ambitious changes.

     

China’s national carbon emissions trading scheme: lessons from the pilot emission trading schemes,academic literature,and known policy details

Upon completion, China’s national emissions trading scheme (C-ETS) will be the largest carbon market in the world. Recent research has evaluated China’s seven pilot ETSs launched from 2013 on, and academic literature on design aspects of the C-ETS abounds. Yet little is known about the specific details of the upcoming C-ETS. This article combines currently understood details of China’s national carbon market with lessons learned in the pilot schemes as well as from the academic literature. Our review follows the taxonomy of Emissions Trading in Practice: A Handbook on Design and Implementation (Partnership for Market Readiness & International Carbon Action Partnership. (2016). Retrieved from www.worldbank.org): The 10 categories are: scope, cap, distribution of allowances, use of offsets, temporal flexibility, price predictability, compliance and oversight, stakeholder engagement and capacity building, linking, implementation and improvements.

Key policy insights

• Accurate emissions data is paramount for both design and implementation, and its availability dictates the scope of the C-ETS.

• The stakeholder consultative process is critical for effective design, and China is able to build on its extensive experience through the pilot ETSs.

• Current policies and positions on intensity targets and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) credits constrain the market design of the C-ETS.

• Most critical is the nature of the cap. The currently discussed rate-based cap with ex post adjustment is risky. Instead, an absolute, mass-based emissions cap coupled with the conditional use of permits would allow China to maintain flexibility in the carbon market while ensuring a limit on CO₂ emissions.