云南地震前兆与短临预报

在云南地区近３０年前兆观测及其地震预测预报研究与实践的基础上,从映震效能的角度对云南地区的前兆观测进行了一次系统研究,从６４个前兆台站１６８个观测 ,优选出了２０个具有较好映震效能的前兆台项。它们初步构成对云南地区地震进行”时、空、强“预测的骨干前兆指标群。     

分区经验性地震综合预报指标的初步研究

本文简要给出了滇，川及邻区近年短临地震综合预报的经验性作法和预报指标，从不同角度探索了进入强震短临阶段和强震三要素的经验性综合分析方法。     

Turbidity-discharge hysteresis in a meso-scale catchment: The importance of intermediate scale events

In-situ sensors for riverine water quality monitoring are a powerful tool to describe temporal variations when efficient and informative analyses are applied to the large quantities of data collected. Concentration-discharge hysteresis patterns observed during storm events give insights into headwater catchment processes. However, the applicability of this approach to larger catchments is less well known. Here, we evaluate the potential for high-frequency turbidity-discharge (Q) hysteresis patterns to give insights into processes operating in a meso-scale (722 km²) northern mixed land use catchment. As existing event identification methods did not work, we developed a new, objective method based on hydrograph characteristics and identified 76 events for further analysis. Qualitative event analysis identified three recurring patterns. Events with low mean Q (≤ 2 m³/s) often showed short-term, quasi-periodic turbidity variation, to a large extent disconnected from Q variation. High max Q events (≥15 m³/s) were often associated with spring flood or snowmelt, and showed a disconnection between turbidity and Q. Intermediate Q events (mean Q: 2–11 m³/s) were the most informative when applying hysteresis indexes, since changes in turbidity and Q were actually connected. Hysteresis indexes could be calculated on a subset of 60 events, which showed heterogeneous responses: 38% had a clockwise response, 12% anticlockwise, 12% figure eight (clockwise–anticlockwise), 10% reverse figure eight (anticlockwise–clockwise) and 28% showed a complex response. Clockwise hysteresis responses were associated with the wetter winter and spring seasons. Generally, changes in Q and turbidity were small during anticlockwise hysteresis events. Precipitation often influenced figure-eight patterns, while complex patterns often occurred during summer low flows. Analysis of intermediate Q events can improve process understanding of meso-scale catchments and possibly aid in choosing appropriate management actions for targeting a specific observed pattern.     

Multiple sulfur isotope chemostratigraphy across the Permian–Triassic boundary at Chaotian,China: Implications for a shoaling model of toxic deep-waters

Previous studies on multiple sulfur isotopes (³²S, ³³S, and ³⁴S) in sedimentary pyrite at the end-Permian suggested a shoaling of anoxic/sulfidic deep-water contributing to the extinction. This scenario is based on an assumption that the sedimentary sulfur cycle was largely controlled by benthos activity, though a stratigraphic correlation between the sulfur records and ichnofabrics of the sediments at the end-Permian has not yet been examined. We report the multiple sulfur isotopic composition of pyrite in the Permian–Triassic boundary interval at Chaotian, South China. Our data can be generally explained by a mixing of sulfur in sulfide from two different sources: one produced via sulfate reduction in an open system with respect to sulfate and the other produced in a closed system. In particular, the former with the substantially low δ³⁴S (<−40 ‰) and high ∆³³S (up to +0.100 ‰) values was likely produced via water-mass sulfate reduction or via sulfate reduction in oxic sediments with common burrows. The frequent occurrence of small pyrite framboids (mostly <5 μm in diameter) in the Lopingian (Late Permian) Dalong Formation of deep-water facies supports the enhanced water-mass sulfate reduction in an anoxic deep-water mass. The negative ∆³³S values are observed only in the oxic limestones, and no substantial ∆³³S change is observed across the extinction horizon despite of the disappearance of bioturbation. Our results are apparently inconsistent with the previous shoaling model. We expand the model and infer that, when the deep-water was sulfidic and its shoaling rate was high, a substantial amount of hydrogen sulfide (H₂S) was supplied onto the shelf via the shoaling; that resulted in the positive ∆³³S value of the bulk sediments. The observed ∆³³S variation on a global scale suggests a substantial variation in H₂S concentration and/or in upwelling rate of shoaling deep-waters during the Permian–Triassic transition.     

湖泊富营养化综合评价方法

从对湖泊富营养化评价的一般方法入手,综述了国内外有关湖泊富养化综合评价的一些方法,提出：营养状态指数法由于可对湖泊营养状态进行连续的数值化的分级,从而为湖泊富营养化机理的定量研究提供了坚实的基础,应是今后湖泊富营养化评价中的主要方法。     

Generalization of TOPMODEL for a power law transmissivity profile

A generalization of the TOPMODEL equations for a power law vertical profile of hydraulic conductivity is introduced. The exponential profile of TOPMODEL is obtained as a limit case of the new general form. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of sensitivity of land surface hydrology representations with and without land–atmosphere feedback

This paper compares various ways of quantifying the importance of land–atmosphere feedback. A widely used land surface hydrology model is used in coupled (to a planetary boundary layer model) and uncoupled modes to compare the adequacy of different feedback indices. It is found that existing feedback indices are primarily based on ‘one factor at a time’ sensitivity analysis and cannot adequately capture the interaction between land and atmosphere. A new index is used which combines factorial design concepts and traditional sensitivity analysis. This index is shown to capture and quantify the strength of interaction between land surface parameters and atmosphere. To assess the effects of forcing characteristics on the stand alone model sensitivity, several ways to specify near-surface atmospheric conditions are evaluated. It is found that commonly used forcing conditions (e.g. model generated or observed time-series of near-surface atmospheric variables) may not be adequate to mimic the coupled model environment for evaluating the land surface representations. The partially coupled model sensitivity is shown to capture a major feedback loop related to water holding capacity, surface fluxes and near-surface atmospheric processes. These results suggest that sensitivity from the stand alone model should be interpreted with caution and future evaluations should strive to incorporate land–atmosphere feedback, at least within a partially coupled model. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of hydrogeological conditions in basement aquifers of the Precambrian Oban massif, southeastern Nigeria

A combined analysis of lineament length density from radar imagery and surface resistivity data is used to assess the hydrogeological conditions in the Oban massif, Nigeria. The results show that the data guided the qualitative and quantitative estimation of some aquifer parameters. These include resistivity of the water bearing formations (280–740 ω m), thickness (5–140 m), limited hydraulic conductivity (8.53-13.18 m/day) and transmissivity (410.65–725.88 m²/day) data. In addition, the lineament length density for the area ranged between less than 0.2 to slightly more than 0.4. Site evaluation for the location of productive boreholes/wells using a groundwater potential index (GWPI) indicates that areas with a GWPI of greater than 35 are consistent with relatively high yield.     

应用灰色系统理论进行地震灾害等级划分和灾情分析比较

通过对地震时人员死亡、受伤、房屋破坏和直接经济损失４个灾害损失指标的函数转换，使得用不同的损失指标判别灾害等级的标准取得了统一．然后，应用灰色聚类方法划分地震灾害等级，并用灰色关联度排序方法对不同的灾情进行分析比较．同时还对１９６６～１９８３年我国大陆７次重要地震和１９９５年我国大陆１７次地震进行了灾害等级划分和不同灾情的分析比较．结果表明，该方法基本可定量准确地评价地震灾情