复种指数遥感监测方法

复种指数是反映水土光与自然资源利用程度的指标 ,其实质是沿时间序列 ,反映某一种植制度对耕地的利用程度。联系复种指数与时间序列NDVI曲线的纽带是农作物年内的循环规律。时间序列的NDVI值蕴涵着植被的生长和枯萎的年循环节律 ,经时间序列谐函数分析法 (HarmonicAnalysisofTimeSeries ,HANTS)重构的NDVI曲线 ,可以准确地反映农作物的出苗、拔节、抽穗、收获等物理过程。因此 ,根据时间序列的NDVI曲线的周期性 ,可以反向捕捉到耕地农作物动态的信息 ,进而得到耕地的复种指数。本文依据上述原理 ,提出复种指数遥感监测的方法 ,然后用 1999年至 2 0 0 2年 4年的VGT(SPOT4卫星vegetation数据 )旬合成NDVI时间序列数据集提取了复种指数 ,并利用地面样区观测结果和统计数据进行检验 ,取得很高的精度。     

开封大雾气候特征及预报

利用1961～2000年气象资料，分析了开封市大雾天气分布规律、天气特征，并总结出大雾产生的几种天气形势，找出预报指标。     

The Application of ARGO Data to the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Operational System of NCC

1. Introduction It is well-known that the state of ocean plays very important role in the climate change. But there is a paucity of the ocean observation data. The data distri- bution in the space, time and different components is very inhomogeneous, even in some areas, there are no any observation data. Hence, it brings some diffcul- ties to the scientists to study many problems relevant to ocean. This situation has been being changed since ARGO (Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanogra-…     

A comparative study of concentrated plasticity models in dynamic analysis of building structures

Concentrated plasticity (CP) models are frequently used in static and dynamic building analysis and have been implemented in available commercial software. This investigation deals with three different CP‐models, a simplified macroelement model (SEM) for a complete building story, a frame element with elasto‐plastic interaction hinges (PH), and a frame element with fiber hinges (FB). The objectives of this work are to evaluate the quality of the earthquake responses predicted by these models and to identify important aspects of their implementation and limitations for their use in dynamic analysis. The three elements are tested in a single‐story asymmetric plan building and in a three‐story steel building. Results show that base shear and global response values are usually computed with better accuracy than interstory deformations and local responses. Besides, the main limitation of elasto‐plastic CP models is to control the displacement offsets that result from perfect elasto‐plastic behavior. On the other hand, calibration of the SEM‐model shows that global responses in steel structures may be computed within 20% error in the mean at a computational cost two orders of magnitude smaller than that of the other CP elements considered. However, the three element models considered lead to increasing levels of accuracy in the dynamic response and their use depends on the refinement of the analysis performed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The 17 March 2005 Kuzulu landslide (Sivas, Turkey) and landslide-susceptibility map of its near vicinity

Landslides are common natural hazards in the seismically active North Anatolian Fault Zone of Turkey. Although seismic activity, heavy rainfall, channel incisions, and anthropogenic effects are commonly the main triggers of landslides, on March 17, 2005, a catastrophic large landslide in Sivas, northeastern of Turkey, the Kuzulu landslide, was triggered by snowmelt without any other precursor. The initial failure of the Kuzulu landslide was rotational. Following the rotational failure, the earth material in the zone of accumulation exhibited an extremely rapid flow caused by steep gradient and high water content. The Agnus Creek valley, where Kuzulu village is located, was filled by the earth-flow material and a landslide dam was formed on the upper part of Agnus Creek. The distance from the toe of the rotational failure down to the toe of the earth flow measured more than 1800 m, with about 12.5 million m³ of displaced earth material. The velocity of the Kuzulu landslide was extremely fast, approximately 6 m/s. The main purposes of this study are to describe the mechanism and the factors conditioning the Kuzulu landslide, to present its environmental impacts, and to produce landslide-susceptibility maps of the Kuzulu landslide area and its near vicinity. For this purpose, a detailed landslide inventory map was prepared and geology, slope, aspect, elevation, topographic-wetness index and stream-power index were considered as conditioning factors. During the susceptibility analyses, the conditional probability approach was used and a landslide-susceptibility map was produced. The landslide-susceptibility map will help decision makers in site selection and the site-planning process. The map may also be accepted as a basis for landslide risk-management studies to be applied in the study area.     

午后多重极光弧观测研究

本文利用2001-2003年南极中山站175天全天空摄像机观测,对午后多重极光弧的出现率及其与Kp指数的关系进行了统计分析,结果表明午后多重极光弧出现率呈一单峰分布,最大发生率出现在1445UT(1645MLT),其位置在1500MLT极光热点(1300-1700MLT)近夜侧的部分。与地磁活动指数Kp的相关统计分析表明,Kp值为2-3之间时多重极光弧有较大的出现率,这说明中等地磁活动情形下午后多重极光弧有较高的出现率。事件分析表明多重极光弧的强度变化与地磁Pc5脉动具有较高的相关性,并且有类似的频谱特征,这说明午后多重极光弧可能与同时出现的Pc5地磁脉动有关。     

Development of a soil moisture‐based distributed hydrologic model for determining hydrologically based critical source areas

A simple grid cell‐based distributed hydrologic model was developed to provide spatial information on hydrologic components for determining hydrologically based critical source areas. The model represents the critical process (soil moisture variation) to run‐off generation accounting for both local and global water balance. In this way, it simulates both infiltration excess run‐off and saturation excess run‐off. The model was tested by multisite and multivariable evaluation on the 50‐km² Little River Experimental Watershed I in Georgia, U.S. and 2 smaller nested subwatersheds. Water balance, hydrograph, and soil moisture were simulated and compared to observed data. For streamflow calibration, the daily Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.78 at the watershed outlet and 0.56 and 0.75 at the 2 nested subwatersheds. For the validation period, the Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficients were 0.79 at the watershed outlet and 0.85 and 0.83 at the 2 subwatersheds. The per cent bias was less than 15% for all sites. For soil moisture, the model also predicted the rising and declining trends at 4 of the 5 measurement sites. The spatial distribution of surface run‐off simulated by the model was mainly controlled by local characteristics (precipitation, soil properties, and land cover) on dry days and by global watershed characteristics (relative position within the watershed and hydrologic connectivity) on wet days when saturation excess run‐off was simulated. The spatial details of run‐off generation and travel time along flow paths provided by the model are helpful for watershed managers to further identify critical source areas of non‐point source pollution and develop best management practices.     

Constitutive and numerical framework for modeling joints and faults in rock

A three‐dimensional constitutive model for joints is described that incorporates nonlinear elasticity based on volumetric elastic strain, and plasticity for both compaction and shear with emphasis on compaction. The formulation is general in the sense that alternative specific functional forms and evolution equations can be easily incorporated. A corresponding numerical structure based on finite elements is provided so that a joint width can vary from a fraction of an element size to a width that occupies several elements. The latter case is particularly appropriate for modeling a fault, which is considered simply to be a joint with large width. For small joint widths, the requisite equilibrium and kinematic requirements within an element are satisfied numerically. The result is that if the constitutive equation for either the joint or the rock is changed, the numerical framework remains unchanged. A unique aspect of the general formulation is the capability to handle either pre‐existing gaps or the formation of gaps. Representative stress–strain plots are given to illustrate both the features of the model and the effects of changes in values of material parameters. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Generalized plasticity state parameter‐based model for saturated and unsaturated soils. Part 1: Saturated state

The behavior of granular materials is known to depend on its loose or dense nature, which in turns depends both on density and confining pressure. Many models developed in the past require the use of different sets of constitutive parameters for the same material under different confining pressures. The purpose of this paper is to extend a basic generalized plasticity model for sands proposed by Pastor, Zienkiewicz and Chan by modifying the main ingredients of the model flow—rule, loading–unloading discriminating direction and plastic modulus—to include a dependency on the state parameter. The proposed model is tested against the available experimental data on three different sands, using for each of them a single set of material parameters, finding a reasonably good agreement between experiments and predictions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.