长江上游干流梯级水库群防洪库容互用性初探

根据《长江流域防洪规划》,长江上游已投入运行的、具有防洪功能的大型控制性水库总预留防洪库容超360亿m3,亟需研究科学实用的防洪调度方法。在定义防洪库容互用性涵义的基础上,探讨了长江上游水库群间防洪库容的互用性,提出了基于库容互用性的水库群防洪调度方法。以金沙江下游梯级和三峡水库为例,分析了二者之间防洪库容的互用比例。研究结果显示,对于1981年、1982年和1998年3个典型年的洪水,金沙江下游梯级水库相对于三峡水库防洪库容的互用比例在0.80~0.97之间,并受拦蓄洪量比例和拦蓄时机的影响。在实时防洪预报调度中,可根据水库群所处状态及防洪形势,基于防洪库容互用性研究成果,结合水文气象预报,科学有效地调度洪水。     

Effective typhoon characteristics and their effects on hourly reservoir inflow forecasting

This paper describes the identification of effective typhoon characteristics and the development of a new type of hourly reservoir inflow forecasting model with the effective typhoon characteristics. Firstly, a comparison of support vector machines (SVMs), which is a novel kind of neural networks (NNs), and back-propagation networks (BPNs) is made to select an appropriate NN-based model. The results show that SVM-based models are more appropriate than BPN-based models because of their higher accuracy and much higher efficiency. In addition, effective typhoon characteristics for improving forecasting performance are identified from all the collected typhoon information. Then the effective typhoon characteristics (the position of the typhoon and the distance between the typhoon center and the reservoir) are added to the proposed SVM-based models. Next, a performance comparison of models with and without effective typhoon characteristics is conducted to clearly highlight the effects of effective typhoon characteristics on hourly reservoir inflow forecasting. To reach a just conclusion, the performance is evaluated by cross validation, and the improvement in performance due to the addition of effective typhoon characteristics is tested by paired comparison t-tests at the 5% significance level. The results confirm that effective typhoon characteristics do improve the forecasting performance and the improvement increases with increasing lead-time, especially when the rainfall data are not available. For four- to six-hour ahead forecasts, the improvement due to the addition of effective typhoon characteristics increases from 3% to 18% and from 10% to 113% for Categories I (rainfall data are available) and II (rainfall data are not available), respectively. In conclusion, effective typhoon characteristics are recommended as key inputs for reservoir inflow forecasting during typhoons. The proposed SVM-based models with effective typhoon characteristics are expected to provide more accurate forecasts than BPN-based models. The proposed modeling technique is also expected to be useful to support reservoir operation systems and other disaster warning systems.     

临汾中心地震台“十五”前兆观测系统综述

对临汾中心地震台“十五”前兆观测系统运行情况进行了统计分析,结果表明：该观测系统工作状态稳定、运转情况良好,产出数据的连续率、完整率等指标达到了规范中≥95％的要求;3套形变观测数据“内精度”达到了国家“Ⅰ”类形变台的标准,对于全球7级以上地震和全国6级左右地震,石英摆倾斜仪能清晰记录到50％以上地震的前驱波现象;在同一地震前垂直摆出现的异常变化与石英摆存在截然不同的异常图像形态,这可能与两仪器自身之间的摆系、工作周期、频率等指标的差异性有关;大地电场有较好的远场异常效应,在青海海西等地震前记录到了明显的短临异常。     

水井施工项目风险分析与控制

结合大量水井施工项目的运行现状,从风险控制角度进行了详细分析,并提出了相应的控制措施,以提高水井施工项目的运行质量。     

全国前兆台网“九五”系统台站接入的设计与实施

介绍了“全国前兆台网‘九五’系统台站接入改造”项目的技术方案,即采用接入地震前兆通信协议转换器或更换“九五”前兆公用数据采集器方式将“九五”前兆仪器接入“十五”前兆系统,并详述了该方案的技术特点;介绍了方案的部署实施情况,测试平台运行情况以及通过对测试平台的监控而发现并解决的问题.并行运行结果显示,接入改造系统运行稳定,产出数据可靠.     

3D GIS支持下盐腔围岩三维计算模型的生成

目前盐腔围岩蠕变模拟中计算网格生成多是理想化的,并没有充分利用真实探测数据。针对这些问题,提出了一种新的三维计算模型生成方法。借助HalfEdge数据结构,基于研究区域边界、DEM（digital element model,数字高程模型）和钻井数据,构建了研究区域地层三维模型;基于声纳测腔数据构建了盐腔三维模型,并对其进行了拓扑检查与修正;将地层三维模型与盐腔三维模型进行三维空间布尔运算,获取盐腔围岩三维模型;通过对该模型进行三维空间网格离散,得到盐腔围岩四面体网格单元,即数值模拟计算模型。通过该方法构建的三维计算模型,可以为后期盐腔围岩蠕变数值模拟过程提供有效的计算网格,进而可以为盐腔的建造,尤其是安全合理地利用盐腔提供科学依据和技术支持。     

梯形面片数据模型及其空间运算应用

提出一种新的基于梯形面片的空间运算方法,该方法将多边形要素预先分解成一系列的梯形面片,后续的空间运算将不再基于原始多边形要素进行操作,而是对分解产生的梯形面片进行更为简便的计算处理。梯形面片模型结合了常见矢量数据模型数据精度高、栅格数据模型运算简单等优点,在执行相关空间运算中与常见矢量和栅格模型相比具有优势。详述了该数据模型,并以点面包含分析和多边形叠置分析等实例探讨了其在空间运算中的应用,测试与分析表明该方法兼具数据精度高、算法实现简单等优点,能较有效地提高空间运算的执行效率。     

Simulation of spatially correlated earthquake ground motions for engineering purposes

A new model to simulate spatially correlated earthquake ground motions is developed. In the model, the main factors that characterize three distinct effects of spatial variability, namely, the incoherency effect, the wave-passage effect and the site-response effect, are taken into account, and corresponding terms/parameters are incorporated into the well known model of uniform ground motions. Some of these terms/parameters can be determined by the root operation, and others can be calculated directly. The proposed model is fi rst verif ied theoretically, and examples of ground motion simulations are provided as a further illustration. It is proven that the ensemble expected value and the ensemble auto-/cross-spectral density functions of the simulated ground motions are identical to the target spectral density functions. The proposed model can also be used to simulate other correlated stochastic processes, such as wave and wind loads.     

三峡梯级枢纽多目标生态优化调度模型及其求解方法

针对三峡梯级枢纽综合效益的充分发挥及其对长江流域典型生态系统修复及持续改善的科学需求,通过分析发电效益与生态效益之间的制约竞争关系,以发电量最大和生态缺水量最小为目标建立了梯级电站多目标生态优化调度模型,对三峡梯级枢纽多目标生态优化调度进行了研究。同时,针对传统优化方法难以同时处理多个调度目标的固有缺陷,提出一种改进多目标差分进化算法对所构建模型进行高效求解。该方法针对差分进化算法在多目标协同优化和全局寻优能力等方面的不足,依据问题的特点重新设计了差分进化算法的进化算子,同时设计了一种多目标混沌搜索策略以加强算法的局部搜索能力。最后,依据多目标生态优化调度问题的特点设计了一种不需要设置惩罚因子的约束处理方法。通过三峡梯级枢纽多目标生态优化调度的实例应用,验证了本文所构建模型的合理性以及所提出算法的有效性和工程实用性。     

一种抗简单功耗分析攻击的椭圆曲线标量乘快速实现算法

针对添加伪点加法在抵抗简单功耗分析攻击的同时效率损失过大的问题,为更好兼顾效率与安全,提出一种新的标量乘快速实现算法——随机伪操作法,通过以单片机为核心运算控制芯片的功耗分析平台进行实测分析验证,随机伪操作法不但能够很好抵抗简单功耗分析攻击,而且相对于添加伪点加法运算效率提高30%-50%。