Climate Comparisons and Change Projections for the Northwest Atlantic from Six CMIP5 Models

Abstract

Key physical variables for the Northwest Atlantic (NWA) are examined in the “historical” and two future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) simulations of six Earth System Models (ESMs) available through Phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The variables are air temperature, sea-ice concentration, surface and subsurface ocean temperature and salinity, and ocean mixed-layer depth. Comparison of the historical simulations with observations indicates that the models provide a good qualitative and approximate quantitative representation of many of the large-scale climatological features in the NWA (e.g., annual cycles and spatial patterns). However, the models represent the detailed structure of some important NWA ocean and ice features poorly, such that caution is needed in the use of their projected future changes. Monthly “climate change” fields between the bidecades 1986–2005 and 2046–2065 are described, using ensemble statistics of the changes across the six ESMs. The results point to warmer air temperatures everywhere, warmer surface ocean temperatures in most areas, reduced sea-ice extent and, in most areas, reduced surface salinities and mixed-layer depths. However, the magnitudes of the inter-model differences in the projected changes are comparable to those of the ensemble-mean changes in many cases, such that robust quantitative projections are generally not possible for the NWA.     

东昆仑南缘布青山构造混杂带得力斯坦南MOR型玄武岩地质、地球化学特征及岩石成因

东昆仑南缘布青山构造混杂带发育有较多OIB型玄武岩, 这类玄武岩成因与地幔柱密切相关.与灰岩密切伴生的具有MOR型特征的基性火山岩亦是东昆仑南缘古特提斯洋盆一类重要的海山玄武岩.为了查明布青山构造混杂带中不同类型洋岛或海山玄武岩的岩石成因, 对得力斯坦南玄武岩进行了详细的地质、地球化学和岩石成因研究.布青山地区得力斯坦南出露的玄武岩岩石类型复杂多样, 主要由枕状玄武岩、气孔-杏仁状玄武岩、角砾状玄武岩和块状玄武岩组成.主量元素地球化学特征表明, 该套玄武岩属于深海拉斑玄武岩和洋脊拉斑玄武岩系列.得力斯坦南玄武岩∑REE介于34.51×10-6~61.60×10-6, LREE/HREE介于0.89~1.37, (La/Yb)_N介于0.30~0.56, δEu介于0.90~1.18.球粒陨石标准化稀土元素配分图呈现轻稀土元素亏损的左倾型, 与NMORB型玄武岩稀土元素配分曲线基本相同.得力斯坦南玄武岩Zr、Hf、Nb和Ta含量均相当于NMORB的相应元素的丰度值.Zr/Nb值介于24.59~57.69, Nb/La值介于0.45~0.94, Hf/Ta值介于18.29~31.94.在原始地幔标准化微量元素蛛网图上, 曲线右侧高场强元素基本未分异(Nb、Ta、Zr、Hf等), 并贴近于NMORB标准线, 具有与NMORB玄武岩相似而明显不同于EMORB和OIB型玄武岩的特征.微量元素判别表明其形成于洋中脊或由于洋脊扩张向两侧后移的洋中脊构造环境, 结合其上覆盖有深水硅泥岩及浅水厚层状碳酸盐岩的地质事实, 认为其在地形地貌上属于古海山.岩石成因研究表明该套玄武岩起源于亏损地幔(DM), 并估算其为地幔二辉橄榄岩发生约10%部分熔融的产物.      

西藏尕尔穷-嘎拉勒铜金矿集区火山岩年代学及地球化学

尕尔穷-嘎拉勒铜金矿集区是班-怒结合带南部的重要矿集区.矿集区内发育大面积火山岩, 利用锆石U-Pb年代学方法, 首次精确测定了研究区内不同地层中火山岩年龄, 并结合其岩石地球化学特征探讨了其形成构造背景.研究表明, 区内朗久组火山角砾岩成岩年龄为141.7.0±0.47 Ma(MSWD=0.43), 多爱组流纹岩年龄为136.80±0.48 Ma(MSWD=0.79), 形成时代为早白垩世初期, 属于班公湖-怒江洋南向俯冲的岩浆作用响应; 原定多爱组火山角砾岩(GE火山角砾岩)年龄为85.20±0.53 Ma(MSWD=3.40), 形成时代为晚白垩世, 不属于早白垩世多爱组产物, 属于洋盆消亡后羌塘陆块与冈底斯陆块汇聚阶段的火山作用产物, 晚于尕尔穷铜金矿的成矿年龄(86.87±0.50 Ma).岩石地球化学特征表明, 区内火山岩均具有相对富集Rb、Th、U等大离子亲石元素(LILE), 而亏损Ta、Nb、Yb、Ti等高场强元素(HFSE)的特征, 显示出弧火山岩特性.结合区域已有火山岩研究资料表明, 在班公湖-怒江洋南向俯冲过程中, 从早白垩世初至中晚期均有比较连续的火山作用, 持续时间约为30 Ma(140~110 Ma); 在班公湖-怒江洋盆消亡后的羌塘陆块与冈底斯陆块汇聚晚阶段, 又伴随有晚白垩世火山作用的发生, 该期火山作用与区内成矿岩体年龄相当, 可能为同一岩浆系统的产物. 关键字: 火山岩; 班公湖-怒江特提斯洋; 俯冲; 碰撞; 尕尔穷-嘎拉勒矿集区; 地球化学.      

几种经典海洋环境噪声谱分析

目前风关海洋环境噪声实验研究结果较多,其中较为经典的是Knudsen谱、Wenz谱、Piggott谱、Crouch谱,以及风速与噪声谱级的对数关系等。对这几种经典的海洋环境噪声谱进行了概述,分析了其数据来源,并对Wenz谱、Piggott谱和Crouch谱进行了比较,探究了其差异产生的原因,并给出了不同情况下进行风关海洋环境噪声估计时的参考建议。     

船载ADCP资料处理

通过对大量走航ADCP观测资料的分析,提出一整套的ADCP资料质量控制和预处理方法,并对提出的ADCP"基准流速控制"的处理方法与传统的"选取参考层法"进行了比较,证明此方法不但可有效提高ADCP资料的处理精度,并可提高资料的处理效率,减少人为的干预因素。     

海洋声学调查数据处理系统的实现及关键技术

针对目前我国海洋水声环境调查需求,结合国内现有的技术条件和现有的处理方法、原理,详述了海洋声学调查数据处理系统的实现途径及关键技术的解决,该系统软件满足我国目前海洋调查的需求,提高了海洋环境数据处理的自动化、数字化和信息化程度。     

pCO2增加引起的海洋酸化对造礁珊瑚光合效率的影响研究

海洋酸化是近年来人类所遇到的重大全球环境问题之一,它指的是大气CO2浓度增加引起的海水pH降低的现象。海洋酸化已经威胁到珊瑚礁及其它钙质生物的生存与发展。近期的预测模型与野外实验均表明,海洋酸化的后果可能比以前想象的更为严峻。本研究采用叶绿素荧光技术,选取3种鹿回头珊瑚礁区常见的珊瑚种类（Acropora valida、Galaxea astreata和Favites abdita）,分别设置海水环境为450 μatm、650 μatm（IPCC预测的2065年的水平）和750 μatm（IPCC预测的2100年的水平）的3个pCO2浓度梯度,监测珊瑚在不同CO2浓度背景下10天内的光合荧光参数的变化。实验结果表明,水体pCO2为650μatm时,珊瑚的总体光合效率最高,但随着时间的延长,珊瑚荧光参数在3个浓度梯度下都会显示不同程度的下降趋势。虽然3种珊瑚对不同浓度CO2响应的程度不同,但基本上显示出,在低浓度pCO2时,pH下降引起的酸化作用控制着珊瑚共生藻的光合效率;而随着浓度的增加,CO2增加引起的施肥效应愈加明显,与酸化作用竞争,共同作用于珊瑚共生藻,使得光合荧光参数在波动中变化。     

近岸海域水沙界面通量与水流挟沙力研究

近岸海域的波浪、潮流及海流等动力因素具有周期性和时间、空间尺度差异大的特点,在综合考虑各动力因子的联合作用时具有较大的难度。本文根据平动动能叠加原理给出了一种近岸动力因子的表达形式,并提出了海洋波动有效速度的概念,结合水沙界面处泥沙通量的切应力与挟沙力关系,得到了水流挟沙力的新的计算公式。指出了水流挟沙力与水流临界速度有关,并且该水流临界速度随水深的增大及相对糙率的减小而增大。采用近岸实测数据和模拟结果,对本文的近岸水流挟沙力公式进行了验证,结果表明该公式的计算值与实测值吻合较好,可以适用于近岸海域。     

北部湾的环流和水团对季节性强迫的响应

In the past 20 a, the gulf-scale circulation in the Beibu Gulf has been commonly accepted to be driven by a wind stress or density gradient. However, using three sensitive experiments based on a three-dimensional baroclinic model that was verified by observations, the formation mechanisms were revealed： the circula- tion in the northern Beibu Gulf was triggered by the monsoon wind throughout a year; whereas the southern gulf circulation was driven by the monsoon wind and South China Sea （SCS） circulation in winter and sum- mer, respectively. The force of heat flux and tidal harmonics had a strong effect on the circulation strength and range, as well as the local circulation structures, but these factors did not influence the major circulation structure in the Beibu Gulf. On the other hand, the Beibu Gulf Cold Water Mass （BGCWM） would disappear without the force of heat flux because the seasonal thermocline layer was generated by the input of heat so that the vertical mixing between the upper hot water and lower cold water was blocked. In addition, the wind-induced cyclonic gyre in the northern gulf was favorable to the existence of the BGCWM. However, the coverage area of the BGCWM was increased slightly without the force of the tidal harmonics. When the model was driven by the monthly averaged surface forcing, the circulation structure was changed to some extent, and the coverage area of the BGCWM almost extended outwards 100%, implying the circulation and water mass in the Beibu Gulf had strong responses to the temporal resolution of the surface forces.     

A global ocean observing system framework for sustainable development

Sustainable development depends on maintaining ecosystem services which are concentrated in coastal marine and estuarine ecosystems. Analyses of the science needed to manage human uses of ecosystem services have concentrated on terrestrial ecosystems. Our focus is on the provision of multidisciplinary data needed to inform adaptive, ecosystem-based approaches (EBAs) for maintaining coastal ecosystem services based on comparative ecosystem analyses. Key indicators of pressures on coastal ecosystems, ecosystem states and the impacts of changes in states on services are identified for monitoring and analysis at a global coastal network of sentinel sites nested in the ocean-climate observing system. Biodiversity is targeted as the “master” indicator because of its importance to a broad spectrum of services. Ultimately, successful implementation of EBAs will depend on establishing integrated, holistic approaches to ocean governance that oversee the development of integrated, operational ocean observing systems based on the data and information requirements specified by a broad spectrum of stakeholders for sustainable development. Sustained engagement of such a spectrum of stakeholders on a global scale is not feasible. The global coastal network will need to be customized locally and regionally based on priorities established by stakeholders in their respective regions. The E.U. Marine Strategy Framework Directive and the U.S. Recommendations of the Interagency Ocean Policy Task Force are important examples of emerging regional scale approaches. The effectiveness of these policies will depend on the co-evolution of ocean policy and the observing system under the auspices of integrated ocean governance.