Stochastic Modelling of the Impact of Flood Protection Measures Along the River Waal in the Netherlands

River flooding is a problem of international interest. In the past few years many countries suffered from severe floods. A large part of the Netherlands is below sea level and river levels. The Dutch flood defences along the river Rhine are designed for water levels with a probability of exceedance of 1/1250 per year. These water levels are computed with a hydrodynamic model using a deterministic bed level and a deterministic design discharge. Traditionally, the safety against flooding in the Netherlands is obtained by building and reinforcing dikes. Recently, a new policy was proposed to cope with increasing design discharges in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This policy is known as the Room for the River (RfR) policy, in which a reduction of flood levels is achieved by measures creating space for the river, such as dike replacement, side channels and floodplain lowering. As compared with dike reinforcement, these measures may have a stronger impact on flow and sediment transport fields, probably leading to stronger morphological effects. As a result of the latter the flood conveyance capacity may decrease over time. An a priori judgement of safety against flooding on the basis of an increased conveyance capacity of the river can be quite misleading. Therefore, the determination of design water levels using a fixed-bed hydrodynamic model may not be justified and the use of a mobile-bed approach may be more appropriate. This problem is addressed in this paper, using a case study of the river Waal (one of the Rhine branches in the Netherlands). The morphological response of the river Waal to a flood protection measure (floodplain lowering in combination with summer levee removal) is analysed. The effect of this measure is subject to various sources of uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to calculate the impact of uncertainties in the river discharge on the bed levels. The impact of the “uncertain” morphological response on design flood level predictions is analysed for three phenomena, viz. the impact of the spatial morphological variation over years, the impact of the seasonal morphological variation and the impact of the morphological variability around bifurcation points. The impact of seasonal morphological variations turns out to be negligible, but the other two phenomena appear to have each an appreciable impact (order of magnitude 0.05–0.1 m) on the computed design water levels. We have to note however, that other sources of uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in hydraulic roughness predictor), which may be of influence, are not taken into consideration. In fact, the present investigation is limited to the sensitivity of the design water levels to uncertainties in the predicted bed level.     

On Tension Failure of 2-D Rock Specimens and Associated Acoustic Emission

Summary To understand the failure mechanism of quasi-brittle materials like rock under tensile stress, observations on the failure process of granite and marble plate specimens under tension are summarized and presented. Micro- and macro-failure properties of rock plates under uniaxial tension have been characterized by using an acoustic emission technique. Acoustic emission signals associated with micro-fractures are captured to locate the sources. An algorithm based on arrival time difference is developed for this purpose. The results reveal clearly the failure processes of rock which include initiation, nucleation and propagation of micro-fractures when the axial stress is close to the peak strength of rock. It is believed that the difference in heterogeneity between granite and marble specimens leads to different fracture shapes and different behaviors of associated acoustic emissions. Numerical simulation of acoustic emissions for two-dimensional tensile test is also carried out. The simulated characteristics are in good agreement with the experimental results.     

太原盆地地下水资源模拟研究

山西省太原盆地由于地下水长期超采,引发了地下水降落漏斗、地面沉降等环境地质问题。通过GMS建立地下水水流三维数值模型,基于模型预测了现状开采条件下地下水水位的变化趋势,并提出合理利用地下水资源的措施,为地下水资源的优化管理提供科学依据。     

飞机积冰过程的诊断分析及强度预报建模

利用NCEP再分析数据和观测数据,对2000年6月6日甘肃省人工增雨作业时的一次飞机积冰过程进行诊断分析,利用WRF模式对72个飞机积冰实例的天气过程进行了数值模拟,在此基础上结合飞机飞行速度建立了积冰强度预报模型,通过统计分析和拟合得到预报模型的参数,并利用飞机实测报告对该模型的预报效果进行了回报检验。结果表明,该模型对飞机积冰强度的预报准确率为69.44%,强度预报结果偏弱占比25%,偏强占比5.56%。     

多级次地下水流系统的最小能耗率原理初探

20世纪60年代初期,Tóth基于定水头上边界条件推导出解析解,得出多级次地下水流系统,是水文地质学里程碑式的突破,成功地解决了一系列理论和实际问题。但Tóth解析解存在的缺陷也长期沿袭：单纯重视数学模拟而忽视物理机制;将地形控制地下水位看成是普适性规律;忽视给定水头上边界数学模拟的失真。这些缺陷,尤其是忽视物理机制探究,不仅妨碍Tóth理论自身发展,而且导致地下水流系统理论尚未被国际水文地质界普遍接受。参照河流动力学中应用的最小能耗率原理,类比提出地下水流最小能耗率的表达式。基于已有的通量上边界地下水流模式数值模拟结果,进一步探究物理机制,归纳得出地下水流系统遵循最小能耗率原理的结论。     

雄安至北京大兴国际机场快线起步区地下段结构抗浮设防水位取值研究

抗浮设防水位直接影响到地下结构的安全与建设费用,在地下结构建设中至关重要,因此,科学合理地确定地下结构的抗浮设防水位具有巨大的社会意义和经济价值。本文以“雄安新区至北京大大兴国际机场快线地下工程段”为研究对象,系统分析了研究区水文地质条件以及地下水位年内年际动态变化规律,利用数值模拟法和类比预测法确定了地下结构抗浮设防水位标高建议值。结果表明,该场地区域浅层地下水水位埋深一般为5.0～20.0m,地下水水位标高一般为–10.0～1.0m。近五年场地浅层地下水水位标高一般为–5～–10 m,埋深一般为3.0～15.0 m,地下水位逐年升高,回升速率约1.0 m/a。地下结构抗浮设防水位标高取值建议取使用期抗浮设防水位采用数值模拟法预测结果。该成果服务了“雄安新区至北京大兴国际机场快线(R1线)”项目场地抗浮设计,为雄安新区重大工程建设项目的抗浮安全设计提供了示范。     

国内外常用的空气质量模式介绍

人们对空气污染问题的关注促进了空气质量数值模式的发展。至今,空气质量模式已经发展了三代。目前,国内外常用的模式有ISC3,ADMS,AERMOD,Models-3,CAPPS等。应该根据实际问题的需求选择合适的模式。     

胶州湾潮汐潮流动边界数值模拟

基于普林斯顿海洋模式,通过干湿网格判别法引入潮汐潮流的漫滩过程,考虑M₂,S₂,K₁,O₁,M₄和MS₄六个主要分潮,建立了胶州湾潮汐潮流数值模拟和预报模型,研究了该海域潮汐潮流特征,并讨论了漫滩对潮流模拟的影响。与实测资料的对比验证表明,该模式能够对胶州湾的潮汐和潮流做出较为合理的预测。给出了胶州湾潮汐、潮流、余流等分布特征,模拟的潮流场以及余流场涡旋等现象与观测符合良好;计算了潮波能通量,从能量角度探讨了潮波的传播特性;对潮位与潮流场演变规律,以及潮能通量的分析表明,胶州湾内的潮波以驻波为主。通过数值试验发现,漫滩过程的引入对胶州湾潮流速度的模拟至关重要,不考虑漫滩过程的模式会夸大或者低估潮流流速。对于滩涂面积广阔的海域来说,潮流数值模式中考虑漫滩的影响是必要的。     

海底热液硫化物矿体内部流体混合过程的数值模拟:以大西洋TAG热液活动区为例

大型海底热液硫化物矿体的形成机制是涉及多种控制因素的复杂地质过程,其中热液流体同海水的混合扮演着重要角色。大洋钻探计划(ODP)资料表明在大西洋TAG区热液硫化物矿体内部,热液流体同经过改造的海水之间发生着广泛的混合作用,这个过程在很大程度上控制着海底热液硫化物矿体的内部结构和化学组成。以TAG热液硫化物矿体为例,利用数值模拟方法模拟了热液流体与经过不同程度改造的海水的混合过程,试图探讨海水与热液流体混合在热液硫化物矿体形成中的作用。模拟计算结果表明:(1)来自矿体深部的热液流体与经围岩加热的下渗海水的混合是造成TAG热液活动区硬石膏大量沉淀的重要原因;(2)在热液流体与海水的混合过程中,混合流体的化学性质和矿物沉淀情况在330~310℃上下发生了较大变化,330~310℃是一个特殊的温度区域;(3)利用数值计算结果探讨了TAG热液活动区不同区块(TAG-1,TAG-2和TAG-5等)的流体混合作用和热液活动过程。     

砾石单元法与SPH耦合模型在数值波浪水槽中的应用研究

为研究以流体粒子描述波浪运动,以固体单元描述砾石运动的两相介质大变形运动,在港口、海岸工程科学研究中具有重要意义。本文提出砾石单元法(GEM),介绍了光滑粒子动力学方法 (SPH)和GEM的基本原理,阐述了GEM与离散单元法(DEM)的异同之处,说明了采用SPH方法与GEM构建波浪砾石耦合运动数学模型的方法和过程。应用SPH方法建立数值波浪水槽,用GEM模拟波浪作用下堆积砾石的滚落、坍塌变形,构建了SPH方法与GEM耦合数学模型。模拟了水槽造波和波浪生成过程和波浪作用下砾石的滚落、坍塌变形,并与物理模型试验成果进行了比较,结果基本吻合。本文提出的GEM法具有模拟单相堆积砾石运动和堆积砾石与流体粒子耦合多相介质运动的功能,是对DEM法的补充和改善。本文提出的堆积力学球概念和拟序排列求解方法是砾石单元法的重要组成部分。