基于BP神经网络的地质灾害细网格预报模型

地质灾害成因复杂,其中以气象因素、地质地貌因素引发的地质灾害最为常见.以金华地区为例,通过对金华市地质地貌条件及其对地质灾害点的调查,将全区划分为4个地质灾害隐患风险等级的网格区域.在此基础上利用金华中尺度气象资料,采用BP神经网络模型,建立地质灾害细网格预报模型,对该模型进行模拟和预报试验.结果表明,合理的隐患风险等级分区能使预报模型更符合科学规律,而采用分布较细的中尺度资料作为预报因子能进一步提高预报精度.模型的预报结果达到一定的可信度,为防灾减灾工作提供了科学依据.     

Solar Wind Effects Associated with a Recurrent,High-Latitude Coronal Brightness Enhancement

During the descent of Ulysses following the 2001 solar north pole passage, the SOHO LASCO C2 telescope recorded a particularly strong sequence of recurrent polarization brightness (pB) features at latitudes of around 55°. As Ulysses passed overhead, solar rotation swept the interplanetary extensions of these persistent coronal structures over the spacecraft. Comparison of solar remote sensing and Ulysses in situ observations through 2002 reveals the solar wind effects of very bright and recurrent K-coronal structures at high solar latitudes and of a steeply inclined heliospheric neutral sheet (HNS). Despite the high level of solar activity, the HNS at high latitude still organizes solar wind stream structure much as it did near the previous solar minimum. The recurrent coronal streamers originate slow solar wind and mark the northern extremity of a very tilted HNS whose passage at Ulysses is accompanied by slow, dense solar wind, enhanced temperature, depressed α abundance, enhanced magnetic fields, and magnetic field directional changes that evolve with spacecraft latitude.     

大气中性点区域偏振效应的地—气参量研究

随着中国多颗偏振遥感器搭载发射,偏振遥感成为对地观测领域一个新的增长点以及研究热点。由于大气散射具有较强的偏振效应,大气与地表偏振信号的分离是偏振对地进行有效观测和应用的一个现实问题与难点问题。本文利用晴空中有规律的偏振分布以及大气偏振中性点的性质,对利用大气中性点的偏振效应进行地表—大气偏振信息分离的可行性进行了论证。通过对大气中性点在辐射传输过程性质的计算,得出Babinet大气中性点区域的偏振效应以及基于Babinet中性点区域进行偏振对地观测的基本方法,研究重点阐述了从航空遥感和航天遥感两个层面对如何将大气中性点应用于遥感观测进行了讨论。结果表明:(1)Babinet中性点相比于其他两个中性点,更适合于偏振遥感对地观测中地—气偏振参量分离;(2)航空遥感搭载偏振传感器在Babinet中性点区域进行地表探测可以消除大气偏振,突出地物偏振信息,有效进行地—气偏振参量分离;(3)在太阳同步轨道的卫星遥感影像上能够有效识别偏振中性点区域;研究成果有效分离高分辨率偏振遥感地物反演中的大气偏振耦合效应,实现地表偏振反射信息最大化,对于偏振遥感的大气校正以及定量化水平的提升具有实践意义。     

Height prediction of water flowing fractured zones based on BP artificial neural network

Factures caused by deformation and destruction of bedrocks over coal seams can easily lead to water flooding(inrush)in mines,a threat to safety production.Fractures with high hydraulic conductivity are good watercourses as well as passages for inrush in mines and tunnels.An accurate height prediction of water flowing fractured zones is a key issue in today's mine water prevention and control.The theory of leveraging BP artificial neural network in height prediction of water flowing fractured zones is analysed and applied in Qianjiaying Mine as an example in this paper.Per the comparison with traditional calculation results,the BP artificial neural network better reflects the geological conditions of the research mine areas and produces more objective,accurate and reasonable results,which can be applied to predict the height of water flowing fractured zones.     

SESTET: A spatially explicit stream temperature model based on equilibrium temperature

Stream-water temperature is a key variable controlling chemical, biological, and ecological processes in freshwater environments. Most models focus on a single river cross-section; however, temperature gradients along stretches and tributaries of a river network are crucial to assess ecohydrological features such as aquatic species suitability, growth and feeding rates, or disease transmission. We propose SESTET, a deterministic, spatially explicit stream temperature model for a whole river network, based on water and energy budgets at a reach scale and requiring only commonly available spatially distributed datasets, such as morphology and air temperature, as input. Heat exchange processes at the air–water interface are modelled via the widely used equilibrium temperature concept, whereas the effects of network structure are accounted for through advective heat fluxes. A case study was conducted on the prealpine Wigger river (Switzerland), where water temperatures have been measured in the period 2014–2018 at 11 spatially distributed locations. The results show the advantages of accounting for water and energy budgets at the reach scale for the entire river network, compared with simpler, lumped formulations. Because our approach fundamentally relies on spatially distributed air temperature fields, adequate spatial interpolation techniques that account for the effects of both elevation and thermal inversion in air temperature are key to a successful application of the model. SESTET allows the assessment of the magnitude of the various components of the heat budget at the reach scale and the derivation of reliable estimates of spatial gradients of mean daily stream temperatures for the whole catchment based on a limited number of conveniently located (viz., spanning the largest possible elevation range) measuring stations. Moreover, accounting for mixing processes and advective fluxes through the river network allows one to trust regionalized values of the parameters controlling the relationship between equilibrium and air temperature, a key feature to generalize the model to data-scarce catchments.     

中点位移中性景观模型对不同主题景观的模拟分析

在景观图幅大小、景观类型数和景观各类型所占比例等与4类真实景观相同的基础上,采用中点位移(mid-point displacement,MPD)中性景观模型,通过设置等间隔变化的空间自相关参数生成10个梯度的中性模拟景观,应用景观指数分析了模拟景观对不同主题真实景观的模拟情况。结果表明,MPD中性景观模型在斑块数、分维数、聚集度等指数方面能够很好地模拟4个主题的真实景观;而在边界密度、散布与并列等指数方面,对4个主题景观的模拟效果不佳。MPD中性景观模型只能在某些方面较好地模拟真实景观,并不能对真实景观进行全面模拟。虽然主题不同,但MPD中性景观模型并未有效区分模拟效果好坏,只是指数重合参数范围不同。在指数表现方面,本研究中某些结果与前人研究结果有偏差,说明不同中性景观在景观格局不同方面的表现存在差异,在模型选取时需慎重。     

基于全天空F-P干涉仪反演热层垂直中性风

由于测量与计算的难度,对热层垂直中性风的观测还很不够,这影响了人们对热层及热层-电离层耦合的认识.本文基于全天空法布里-珀罗干涉仪(FPI)对热层风场的观测,提出了一种反演垂直中性风的方法.利用该方法,对北极黄河站全天空FPI观测数据进行了垂直中性风的反演计算,结果表明,高热层与低热层的垂直风平均幅值分别在40 m·s^-1和15 m·s^-1,且垂直风日变化表现出明显的时间演变特性,且与地磁ap指数的变化有一定的相关性,在地磁活动强烈时,低热层垂直风会出现高达100 m·s^-1的扰动,高热层甚至会达到300 m·s^-1的扰动,这些特征与其他学者的观测结果相一致.本文方法不需要假设垂直风均值为零,也不用限制FPI的观测方位,可用于垂直风的反演.     

洪水预报中特征值预报的若干数学方法比较

讨论研究了水文特征值预报的数学方法,统计回归模型、神经网络模型和模糊回归模型。三个计处实例表明如果系统的线性关系较好,统计回归模型的结果最好;如果系统的线民生关系差,神经网络模型的结果最好;如果用于率定模型的资料太短,任何一个模型都不可靠。     

不同堆载形式对群桩负摩阻力的影响

在既有桥墩桩基础周围土体堆载时,会引起土体的沉降和侧向变形,进而在桩身产生负摩阻力,对桩基变形及承载性能有很大影响。为研究围载和单侧边载作用下群桩中不同位置桩基的受力差异,以3×3群桩基础为研究对象,进行围载和单侧边载作用下的模型试验,分析了不同位置桩基轴力、侧摩阻力、中性点位置和基桩承载力安全系数等的变化规律及差异。研究结果表明：围载工况下,角桩的轴力、侧摩阻力最大,边桩次之,中心桩最小;中性点位置角桩最深,边桩略高,中心桩距桩顶最近。边载工况下,靠近边载侧和中间一排桩基轴力、侧摩阻力与围载时的变化规律类似,远离边载侧的一排桩基受边载影响较小,无负摩阻力;各桩基中性点位置变化规律类似于围载工况。与围载工况相比,边载时同一位置桩身轴力、负摩阻力均较小,中性点位置较高。与单侧边载工况相比,围载时各基桩承载力安全系数FS均较小且随荷载的增大衰减梯度较大。该研究成果为不同堆载形式下群桩基础的设计提供参考。     

刚性桩复合地基中性面深度与桩土应力比计算

刚性桩复合地基中性面深度及桩土应力比的简化计算主要基于桩侧摩阻力线性分布假设,当桩身较长时,桩端侧摩阻力的计算值会远大于实际值,致使中性面深度及桩土应力比的计算结果与实际差别较大,故有必要对线性分布模式予以修正。据此将桩侧摩阻力分布简化为分段线性模式,考虑负摩阻力作用及桩上、下刺入变形,根据褥垫层-桩-土变形协调关系推导了刚性桩复合地基中性面深度、桩顶面桩土应力比、中性面桩土应力比计算公式。最后通过模型试验与工程实例验证,计算值与实测值吻合较好。