Accretion and exhumation at a Variscan active margin, recorded in the Saxothuringian flysch

The Saxothuringian flysch basin, on the north flank of the Central European Variscides, was fed and eventually overthrust by the northwestern, active margin of the Tepla-Barrandian terrane. Clast spectra, mineral composition and isotopic ages of detrital mica and zircon have been analyzed in order to constrain accretion and exhumation of rocks in the orogenic wedge. The earliest clastic sediments preserved are of early Famennian age (ca. 370?Ma). They are exposed immediately to the NW of the suture, and belong to the par-autochthon of the foreland. Besides ultramafic (?ophiolite) material, these rocks contain clasts derived from Early Paleozoic continental slope sediments, originally deposited at the NW margin of the Saxothuringian basin. These findings, together with the paleogeographic position of the Famennian clastics debris on the northwestern passive margin, indicate that the Saxothuringian narrow ocean had been closed by that time. Microprobe analyses of detrital hornblendes suggest derivation from the “Randamphibolit” unit, now present in the middle part of the Saxothuringian allochthon (Münchberg nappes). Detrital zircons of metamorphic rocks formed a little earlier (ca. 380?Ma) indicate rapid recycling at the tectonic front. The middle part of the flysch sequence (ca. early to middle Viséan), both in the par-autochthon and in the allochthon, contains abundant clasts of Paleozoic rocks derived from the northwestern slope and rise, together with debris of Cadomian basement, 500-Ma granitoids and 380?Ma (early Variscan) crystalline rocks. All of these source rocks were still available in the youngest part of the flysch (c. middle to late Viséan), but some clasts record, in addition, accretion of the northwestern shelf. Our findings permit deduction of minimum rates of tectonic shortening well in excess of 10–30?mm per year, and rates of exhumation of ca. 3?mm/a, and possibly more.     

雷达遥感六十年：四个阶段的发展

雷达遥感问世60年来已经历了4个阶段的发展,其在对地观测中的作用正日益凸显,已经广泛应用于不同领域。4个阶段分别是单波段单极化阶段,多波段多极化阶段,极化和干涉阶段,以及以双/多站或星座、高时序高分宽幅、3维成像为代表的新阶段。本文结合作者长期在雷达遥感领域的研究经历,总结和回顾了雷达遥感的阶段发展和具有里程碑式的代表性技术;从观测技术、数据处理和应用角度阐述了新阶段雷达遥感的发展趋势,以及雷达遥感与人工智能和大数据结合的思考;最后着眼未来,介绍了月基雷达对地观测平台的前瞻性研究。     

裂纹间动态相互作用的实验观测与理论分析──以共线剪切裂纹归并为例

本文以共线剪切裂纹的归并为例,研究裂纹系的动态相互作用．实验结果表明：在张破裂的意义上,小间距共线剪切裂纹的内端部实际上是阻碍结构,通过迂回弯曲的张破裂归并．本文提出一种估计张破裂扩展途径的近似方法,利用张应力破裂判据找出了潜在的破裂扩展途径的第一近似,较好地模拟了共线裂纹的破裂途径,和现有的数值模拟方法比较,可以大大缩短机时,简化计算程序,保证精确度．本研究结出了岩石剪切破裂“隧道效应”（即破裂跳过障碍体,而障碍体本身不破坏）的机理,还给出了脆性介质在摩擦、磨损过程中碎屑产生的机理．     

应用多传感器目标跟踪融合技术实现滑坡多点监测数据综合信息的提取

目前的滑坡预报模型只能利用一个关键监测点的监测数据，而不能同时利用多个监测点的监测信息，即只能处理一维时间序列问题.为了解决这个技术难题，本文将滑坡视为一个机动目标，将对滑坡的监测视为对机动目标的跟踪，提出了利用多传感器目标跟踪融合技术来处理滑坡多个点的监测数据的方法，分析了其可行性，并用实例说明了本文提出的方法在实际应用中是有效的.     

2016年中国气候主要特征及主要天气气候事件

2016年,全国气候异常,极端天气气候事件多,暴雨洪涝、台风和风雹等气象灾害较突出,气候年景差。全国平均气温较常年偏高0.8℃,为1951年以来第三高;四季气温均偏高,其中,夏季气温为1961年以来同期最高。四季降水量均偏多,冬、秋季分别为1961年以来同期最多。全国平均年降水量730.0 mm,较常年偏多16%,为1951年以来最多。华南前汛期和西南雨季开始早;入梅早、出梅晚,梅雨期长,雨量多;华北雨季短,雨量多;华西秋雨短,雨量少。2016年,全国暴雨过程多,南北洪涝并发。登陆台风数量多、平均强度强。强对流天气多,损失偏重,北方风雹灾害突出。气温波动大,夏季高温影响范围广。秋、冬京津冀及周边地区霾天气频繁。其他灾害如干旱、低温冷冻害、雪灾和春季沙尘影响均偏轻。     

初夏西北太平洋副高东西变动对中国南部降水东西差异的影响

西北太平洋副热带高压（以下简称副高）是影响中国气候的大尺度环流系统,为了进一步了解副高对中国气候的影响,本文利用站点观测资料和大气环流再分析资料,通过资料诊断分析和数值模拟方法,探讨了6月副高东西变动对中国南部降水的影响,以及影响副高东西变动的前期海洋因子.结果表明副高东西变动对中国西南和华南地区降水的影响明显不同：副高偏东有利于降水西南偏多而华南偏少,偏西则降水变化刚好相反.其原因与副高东西变化引起的环流差异有关,华南降水与副高东（西）变动时西太平洋地区副高西北侧的东北（西南）风异常以及东亚中低纬度地区异常经向波列的变化直接有关,而西南降水异常不仅与副高东西变动在东南亚地区引起的纬向风异常有关,与青藏高原大地形动力作用对副高北侧异常纬向风的变化也有十分密切的联系.此外,副高东西变动时影响西南和华南地区的水汽来源不同,影响西南的水汽主要来源于赤道印度洋80°E附近越赤道气流,而影响华南的水汽主要来源于副高南侧偏东气流从西北太平洋地区输送的水汽.进一步分析发现前期冬春季热带西北太平洋和赤道西太平洋海温变化的偶极差异与后期初夏副高东西变动有密切联系,冬春季西北太平洋暖海温和赤道西太平洋冷海温变化有利于后期初夏副高偏西,相反则有利于副高偏东,数值模拟结果在一定程度证实了资料诊断分析结果.

     

Stability of waterfront retaining wall subjected to pseudo-static earthquake forces

Waterfront retaining walls supporting dry backfill are subjected to hydrostatic pressure on upstream face and earth pressure on the downstream face. Under seismic conditions, if such a wall retains a submerged backfill, additional hydrodynamic pressures are generated. This paper pertains to a study in which the effect of earthquakes along with the hydrodynamic pressure including inertial forces on such a retaining wall is observed. The hydrodynamic pressure is calculated using Westergaard's approach, while the earth pressure is calculated using Mononobe-Okabe's pseudo-static analysis. It is observed that when the horizontal seismic acceleration coefficient is increased from 0 to 0.2, there is a 57% decrease in the factor of safety of the retaining wall in sliding mode. For investigating the effect of different parameters, a parametric study is also done. It is observed that if φ is increased from 30° to 35°, there is an increase in the factor of safety in the sliding mode by 20.4%. Similar observations were made for other parameters as well. Comparison of results obtained from the present approach with [Ebeling, R.M., Morrison Jr, E.E., 1992. The seismic design of waterfront retaining structures. US Army Technical Report ITL-92-11. Washington DC] reveal that the factor of safety for static condition (k_h=0), calculated by both the approaches, is 1.60 while for an earthquake with k_h=0.2, they differ by 22.5% due to the consideration of wall inertia in the present study.     

Spatial-temporal patterns of China’s interprovincial migration, 1985-2010

Migration plays an increasing role in China's economy since mobility rose and economic restructuring has proceeded during the last three decades. Given the background of most studies focusing on migration in a particular period, there is a critical need to analyze the spatial-temporal patterns of migration. Using bicomponent trend mapping technique and interprovincial migration data during the periods 1985-1990, 1990-1995, 1995-2000, 2000-2005, and 2005-2010 we analyze net-, in-, out-migration intensity, and their changes over time in this study. Strong spatial variations in migration intensity were found in China's interprovincial migration, and substantial increase in migration intensity was also detected in eastern China during 1985-2010. Eight key destinations are mostly located within the three rapidly growing economic zones of eastern China (Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region), and they are classified into three types: mature, emerging, and fluctuant origins, while most key origins are relatively undeveloped central and western provinces, which are exactly in accordance with China's economic development patterns. The results of bicomponent trend mapping indicate that, in a sense, the migration in the south was more active than the north over the last three decades. The result shows the new changing features of spatial-temporal patterns of China's interprovincial migration that Fan and Chen did not find out in their research. A series of social-economic changes including rural transformation, balanced regional development, and labor market changes should be paid more attention to explore China's future interprovincial migration.     

南海热带气旋的气候变化及强度预测方法研究

建立南海海域1949～2007年6～10月份热带气旋（以下简称TC）年、月频数和TC中心强度的历史资料统计文件,分析TC的年月变化。结果表明：近50年,TC具有10a左右的周期变化,1964～1974年和1985～1995年为南海两个强台风以上级别频发期,1997～2006年为TC频数少且强度弱的时期。同时TC强度的空间分布分析结果表明,中沙北部海域和东沙西部海域为强台风多发生区,各月TC强度分布特征明显不同,且其加强通道具有南-北-南阶段性变化。另外,通过分别对1949～2007年北半球500hPa高度场及海温场的格点资料和TC强度历史资料的相关计算,选取高相关格点,根据相关权重组成组合因子,构建二次型预测方程,做年月TC强度预测。预测检验结果显示,冬季的高度场和海温场对次年的TC强度预测效果良好。