“93.5”黑风暴发展期中尺度期热量和水汽收支诊断

１９９３年５月４—６日（“９３．５”）在我国西北地区发生了一次极具破坏力的“黑风暴”。为了诊断这次黑风暴发展期的热量和水汽收支，使用了具有高分辨ＰＢＬ参数化及４０ｋｍ细网络的ＭＭ４对该例控制模拟的输出资料和热量与水汽收支方程。对视热源（Ｑ１）和视水汽汇（Ｑ２）的诊断结果指出，Ｑ１的垂直积分在黑风暴的前部和后部分别呈现一条显著的加热带和冷却带。在黑风暴区，Ｑ１和Ｑ２的区域平均垂直廓线揭示，黑风暴的Ｑ１加热主要发生在对流层的上部，而其中部加热主要出现在发展初期；与Ｑ１相应，Ｑ２在低空和中空分别发生明显的增湿变冷和变干加热。这些结果不仅与因黑风暴过程而观测到的强剧强降温率一致，而且也为改进和发展用于模拟和预报黑风暴的中尺度数值模式提供了一些物理依据     

农田土壤湿度的人工神经网络预测诊断系统

采用人工神经网络（ＡＮＮ）方法，研制了农田土壤湿度预测，诊断分析系统，该系统根据不同的土壤湿度特点和影响因子，可自动提供时间序列拓展的人工神经网络预测模型和人工神经网络的混合预测模型进行土壤湿度的动态预测。并提供不同降水量的土壤湿水分渗透深度诊断分析，系统采用中文菜单显示的人机对话方式操作，使具有准动力学特性，多种可调参数和网络结构的ＡＮＮ方法变得简便易于操作。实际使用表明，该系统对土壤湿度的预测     

江苏省主要作物农田水分盈亏量的研究

利用江苏省1980～1992年土壤湿度资料，根据土壤水分平衡原理，运用运筹学中的优化技术，结合本省的自然条件和作物生长实际情况，提出有效降水量、下层水分补给量等计算方法，建立了旱地和稻田农田水分盈亏量的计算模式，以便应用实时降水和土壤湿度等资料，计算全省农田水分盈亏量，及时提供农业气象情报服务。     

动态指标层析法介绍

参数值是影响模拟结果正确可信的重要因素。介绍了一、二维模拟中参数值确定的动态指标层析法，以及作为其发展基础的由多种热指标确定古充的反演方法，简述了动态指标和热指标相结合的确定参数值层析方法。     

祁连山地区1310年以来湿润指数及其年际变幅的变化与突变分析

本文通过用树木年轮资料重建的祁连山地区5～7月份1310年以来的湿润指数序列，建立了一个反映该地区湿润指数年际变幅序列，对这两个序列分别进行了等级分类和干湿、强弱的时段分析，并用最大熵谱分析法对这两个序列的不同时段分别进行了周期分析。采用HK突变检验方法对这两个序列分别进行了突变分析，发现祁连山地区的湿润指数及其年际变幅存在明显的突变年份。     

SEDIMENT TRANSPORT MODEL OF A WATERSHED

ChinaisoneOfthecountrieswhichsufferfromthemostserioussoilerosionintheworld,andthehillyandgullyareasof~PlateauinthemiddlereachesOftheYellowRiverarethemostseriouserosionareainChina.Inthisarea,themainerosivefactorsarerainfallandrunoff.Sometimes,thesedimentyieldinasinglefloodeventcanbe40%oftheannualsedimentload.Therefore,itisveryimPOrtanttostudytheyieldandgraphOfSedimentOfsinglefindevent.Forthispn~,thispaperiswritten.AInongsedimentmodelsforsinglefloodevent,moreandmoreattentionwaspaidtOunitse…     

Estimation of groundwater evaporation and salt flux from Owens Lake, California, USA

Groundwater evaporation and subsequent precipitation of soluble salts at Owens Lake in eastern California have created one of the single largest sources of airborne dust in the USA, yet the evaporation and salt flux have not been fully quantified. In this study, we compare eddy correlation, microlysimeters and solute profiling methods to determine their validity and sensitivity in playa environments. These techniques are often used to estimate evaporative losses, yet have not been critically compared at one field site to judge their relative effectiveness and accuracy. Results suggest that eddy correlation methods are the most widely applicable for the variety of conditions found on large playa lakes. Chloride profiling is shown to be highly sensitive to thermal and density-driven fluxes in the near surface and, as a result, appears to underestimate yearly groundwater evaporation. Yearly mean groundwater evaporation from the playa surface estimated from the three study areas was found to range from 88 to 104 mm year⁻¹, whereas mean evaporation from the brine-covered areas was 872 mm year⁻¹. Uncertainties on these mean rates were estimated to be ±25%, based on comparisons between eddy correlation and lysimeter estimates. On a yearly basis, evaporation accounts for approximately 47 × 10⁶ m³ of water loss from the playa surface and open-water areas of the lake. Over the playa area, as much as 7.5 × 10⁸ kg (7.5 × 10⁵ t) of salt are annually concentrated by evaporation at or near the playa surface, much of which appears to be lost during dust storms in area.     

Coal-generated oil in Tuha Basin

The Turpan-Harmi (abbreviated to Tuha below) Basin is a typical basin of coal-generated oil accumulation in China. The Middle-Lower Jurassic coal measures are considered the main source beds. Hence, both desmocollinite and suberinite are considered the contributors for coal-generated oil. Principal geochemical features of the crude oil in the Tuha Basin are rich in alkanes (70%—80%), high pristane/phytane ratio (6—8), abundant heavy carbon isotope (δ¹³C PDB= -26%–-23%) and absolute GP sterane predominance. The hydrocarbon generation process from the coal series is characterized by multistages, early generation and early expulsion.     

Comparison of Aircraft and Ground-Based FluxMeasurements during OASIS95

Aircraft and ground-based measurements made during the1995 Australian OASIS field campaign are compared. The aircraft data were recorded during low-level flightsat 6 m above ground level and grid flights at altitudes of between 15 and 65 m, allin unstable atmospheric conditions. The low-level flights revealed an inadequate temperaturesensor response time, a correction for which was determined from subsequent work ina wind tunnel. Aircraft and ground-based measurements of mean wind speed, wind directionand air temperature agree to within 0.2 m s^-1, 4° and 0.9 °C respectively.Comparisons between aircraft and ground-based observations of the standarddeviations of vertical velocity, horizontal wind speed, air temperature and specifichumidity have slopes of 0.96, 0.97, 0.92 and 0.99 respectively but the observed scatter isroughly twice the random error expected due to the averaging length of the aircraft data andthe averaging period of the ground-based data. For the low-level flights, the ground-basedand aircraft measurements of sensible and latent heat flux show mean differences of 27 and-25 W m^-2 respectively, which reduce to 11 and -4 W m^-2 respectivelywhen analysis of aircraft data is limited to areas immediately adjacent to the fluxtowers. For the flights at 15 to 65 m above ground level, the mean differences between theground-based and aircraft measurements of sensible and latent heat flux are -22 and-1 W m^-2 respectively and these change to -1 and -7 W m^-2 respectively oncethe effect of surface heterogeneity is included. Aircraft and ground-based measurementsof net radiation agree to within 6% at one ground-based site but differ by 20% at a second.Aircraft measurements of friction velocity at 6 m above the ground agree well withground-based data, but those from flights between 15 and 65 m above ground level do not.This is because at these heights the aircraft measurements provide the local shear stress,not the surface shear stress. Overall, the level of agreement allows confidence in the aircraftdata provided due care is taken of instrument response times and differences in thesurfaces sampled by aircraft and ground-based systems.     

Countergradient Fluxes of Conserved Variables in the Clear convective and Stratocumulus-topped Boundary Layer: The role of the Entrainment Flux

Large-eddy simulations of a clear convective boundary layer (CBL)and a stratocumulus-topped boundary layer are studied. Bottom-upand a top-down scalars were included in the simulations, and theprinciple of linear superposition of variables was applied toreconstruct the fields of any arbitrary conserved variable.This approach allows a systematic analysis of countergradient fluxesas a function of the flux ratio, which is defined as the ratio betweenthe entrainment flux and the surface flux of the conserved quantity.In general, the turbulent flux of an arbitrary conserved quantityis counter to the mean vertical gradient if the heights where thevertical flux and the mean vertical gradient change sign do notcoincide. The regime where the flux is countergradient is thereforebounded by the so-called zero-flux and zero-gradient heights. Becausethe vertical flux changes sign only if the entrainment flux has anopposite sign to the surface flux, countergradient fluxes arepredominantly found for negative flux ratios. In the CBL the fluxratio for the virtual potential temperature is, to a good approximation,constant, and equal to -0.2. Only if the moisture contribution to thevirtual potential temperature is negligibly small will the flux ratio forthe potential temperature be equal to this value. Otherwise, theflux ratio for the potential temperature can have any arbitrary(negative) value, and, as a consequence, the fluxes for thepotential temperature and the virtual potential temperature willbe countergradient at different heights. As a practical application ofthe results, vertical profiles of the countergradient correction termfor different entrainment-to-surface-flux ratios are discussed.