Application of discovery process models in estimating petroleum resources at the play level in China

Discovery process modeling has gained wide acceptance in the Chinese exploration community. In recent years, a variety of discovery process models have been applied to the prediction of undiscovered petroleum resources at the play level in sedimentary basins in China. However, challenging problems have been encountered, particularly when one method alone has been applied to small plays in nonmarine sedimentary basins or in plays with an unusual order of discovery wells. This paper presents results gotten by using the lognormal discovery process model of the Geological Survey of Canada and the geoanchored method for three petroleum plays in basins with different geologic settings. Although the predicted shapes of the parentsize distributions which use these two models, were not always similar, the expected values of the total resources and the number of fields (pools) to be discovered are comparable. The combined use of two discovery process models in the same play compensates for the weaknesses in one method compared with the other and vice versa. Thus, more reliable estimates are the result.     

秦岭巴山地区高陵─达县重磁剖面初步解释

高陵－达县剖面位于秦岭中段，斜跨中朝准地台、秦岭褶皱系、扬子准地台三大构造单元。在研究剖面实磁场特征的基础上，综合地质、物性、省内及邻省深部物探资料，建立了剖面地质－地球物理模型，依此对剖面通过地段的地壳结构、断裂带深部特征、三大构造单元的深部格架进行了解释推断。     

隧道开挖模拟计算中的模型识别方法初探

介绍了利用隧道施工的位移量测信息来选择计算模型的原理和方法。应用实例表明，本文所提出的方法有较好的应用前景。     

GPS Ambiguity Resolution: Impact of Time Correlation,Cross-Correlation and Satellite Elevation Dependence

In this contribution we discuss the geometry-free GPS single baseline model and show how the least-squares ambiguities are affected by changes in the stochastic model. We particularly pay attention to the effect of time correlation, cross-correlation and satellite elevation dependence. We also differentiate between the impact on the location of the ambiguity search space and the impact on the size and shape of the search space. The analysis is carried out for both the model in which the ionospheric delays are assumed absent, and for the model in which they are assumed present. The former model is applicable to short baselines only.     

悬吊式钢混结构体系抗震试验与分析

悬吊式钢混结构体系是一种新型结构体系，通过一榀1／2比例此种框架的拟静力试验，研究了这种结构在低周反复水平荷载作用下的受力特点、变形和耗能能力以及破坏机理等，试验表明此种框架与传统异形柱框架的性能不同，为此种结构体系的应用提供了试验基础。     

结构动力模型试验相似理论及其验证

通过几何比尺为2的两个有机玻璃模型的结构动力试验，验证了结构动力模型试验的弹性相似律和弹性力一重力相似律。得到了以下结论：(1)大小模型频率符合相似律，一阶频率误差为2．7％、4．1％，二阶频率误差为O、6．05％。弹性相似律比弹性力一重力相似律更适合于频率预测的试验。(2)大小模型的加速度、应变符合相似律，弹性相似律的加速度误差为-1．55％～8．75％，应变误差为O．377％～7．297％。弹性力-重力相似律的加速度误差为3．07％～4．158％，应变误差为6．849％～12．959％。(3)不同相似律大小模型的时问比尺吻合很好。加速度与应变时程曲线的波形一致，既无漏峰也无错峰。     

Large-Eddy Simulation of Turbulent Flow Over a Rough Surface

A family of wall models is proposed that exhibits moresatisfactory performance than previousmodels for the large-eddy simulation (LES) of the turbulentboundary layer over a rough surface.The time and horizontally averaged statistics such asmean vertical profiles of windvelocity, Reynolds stress, turbulent intensities, turbulentkinetic energy and alsospectra are compared with wind-tunnel experimental data.The purpose of the present study is to obtain simulatedturbulent flows that are comparable with wind-tunnelmeasurements for use as the wind environment for thenumerical prediction by LES of source dispersion in theneutral atmospheric boundary layer.     

城市应急管理模型之设计

随着城市建设的快速发展 ,各类危及国家和人民群众生命财产安全的突发性事故灾害时有发生 ,尽管各有关部门的抢救队伍在实施抢险救援中发挥了积极作用 ,但各抢险救援力量专业单一、分散行动 ,形成不了合力 ,难以及时有效处置重大或特大突发性、综合性、大面积的城市事故灾害 ,特别是像地震以及的美国的 9 1 1那样突发性事故。我们目前开展的震害预测与灾害快速评估系统只是针对地震的 ,而地震是小概率事件。因此要应对城市各种重大突发事件 ,城市有必要建立一种应急机制或综合的应急管理信息系统。根据“数字城市”的思想 ,通过一个通信系统与信息系统集成的平台 ,统一协调公安、消防、急救、交警、公共事业、民防、地震等政府部门 ,为市民提供快速、及时的各种救助和相应的服务。统一报警、统一指挥、快速反应、联合行动 ,从而有效地减少损失。     

Research on the effect estimation of seismic safety evaluation

IntroductionItisdefinitelystipulatedintheLawofthePeople'sRepublicofChinaonProtectingagainstandMitigatingEarthquakeDisastersthattheseismicsafetyevaluationmustbemadeformajorprojects(includinglifelineprojects)and,accordingtotheresultsobtained,theseismicresistancerequirementsshouldbedetermined.Thenecessityofseismicsafetyevaluationhasbeenrecog-nizedgradually,butthetopicontheeffectofsafetyevaluationhasnotbeenreferredmuch.Gener-allyspeaking,althoughmostpeopleapprovethesocialeffectofsafetyevaluatio…     

山西省主要河流流域面雨量预报业务流程

以T213、HLAFS模式、MM5中尺度模式输出的格点资料以及日本降水量格点资料为基础，将影响山西降水的天气动力模型归纳为诊断模型，从中引出多个能够全面反映降水模型特征的综合物理因子；根据各种数值模式输出的降水量预报性能和质量优劣特点，依据数值模式的形势场预报优于要素场预报的现实，构造在不同环流形势背景下，启动不同预报方程的面雨量预报业务流程，有效地遏止了在环流形势调整时预报输出不能快速响应的弱点，提高了点和面雨量预报的准确度。