IMPACT OF THE INITIALIZATION ON MESOSCALE MODEL PREDICTION IN SOUTH CHINA

1 INTRODUCTIONThe initial state of the atmosphere is one of the keyfactors that affect the result of NWP. With thedevelopment of increasingly finer NWP, the quality ofinitial atmospheric state has been drawing more andmore attention[1-7]. GRAPES 3D- Var(G…     

云南冷锋切变型暴雨的中尺度特征分析

利用T106数值预报产品资料，通过中尺度滤波方法，提取云南冷锋切变型暴雨过程中的中尺度降水系统，对其有关物理量的特征及演变进行了分析。研究发现，通过中尺度滤波方法，可以从常规的数值预报产品资料中有效分离出直接导致暴雨的中尺度天气系统，通过对这些中尺度系统的分析及追踪，可以为暴雨预报提供更为客观的预报依据；水汽的强辐合时段与暴雨降落时段有较好的对应关系，暴雨落区比水汽的强辐合区域要稍偏向于水汽输送的下游方向；在该型暴雨的发生过程中，北部冷平流具有十分重要的作用，但南部暖平流的作用也不可忽视。     

STRUCTURE OF MESO-β AND –γ-SCALE ON SOUTH CHINA HEAVY RAINFALL ON 12～13 JUNE 2005 USING DUAL-DOPPLER RADAR

The three-dimensional wind fields of the heavy rain on 12-13 June 2005 in Guangdong province are retrieved and studied with the volume scan data of the dual-Doppler radar located in the cities of Meizhou and Shantou. It is shown that the meso-β-scale and meso-γ-scale convergence lines located in the convective system at the low and middle layer play an important role in the heavy rainfall. The convergence line is the initiating and maintaining mechanism of the rain. A three dimensional kinematic structure model is also given.     

中尺度大气波动的波谱和谱函数——数学模型和计算方法

作者得到了准二维Boussinesq方程组，并用其研究了中尺度大气波动的波谱和谱函数。在一定条件下对该方程组线性化并取标准模后，可将其初边值问题转化为矩阵的广义特征值问题来进行数值求解，这样就可知原问题波谱和谱函数的性质。当无基本流且取地转参数、层结参数为常数时，可求得其波谱和谱函数的解析解。此时该模式中仅包含有一对重力惯性内波模态，且各模态均是简谐波；模态越高，垂直波数越大则波动传播得越慢，所有的模态均为离散谱，并存在聚点。对此作者用数值解作了验算，结果表明，该数值求解方案合理可行，对不太高的模态其精度也令人满意。在无基本流然而考虑层结的垂直变化后，则一般无法求取解析解，为此进行了数值求解。这时该模式仍仅包含有一对重力惯性内波的离散谱模态，不过由于层结参数的变化，各模态结构与简谐波出现了偏差。     

MESO-α-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER CHINA DURING 1995

There were 102 meso-α-scale convective systems(MαCSs)generated over China and theneighboring sea during June—August 1995.Those MαCSs were concentrated in three major areas:the west of South China,Sichuan Basin,and the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang andthe Huanghe River Basin.Six cases of MαCS in different regions are given to show the variety ofthe MαCS genesis and development by the distributions of their cold-cloud-shield black bodytemperature.     

中尺度对流复合体的热力学特征分析

用合成分析方法探讨ＭＣＣ热力学结构的演变规律,结果表明：ＭＣＣ整个生命史里,对流层中下部为正涡度区,２００ｈＰａ以上为负涡度区;发展时刻辐合区突然抬升;ＭＣＣ前期的垂直上升速度最大中心高度低于后期的;ＭＣＣ的高低空的冷心、中层暖心的温度结构在成熟期以后不明显     

Assessing uncertainties in dust emission in the Aral Sea region caused by meteorological fields predicted with a mesoscale model

This study investigates how the choice of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization and dust emission scheme affects the prediction of dust entrainment simulated with a regional mesoscale model. For this analysis we consider a representative dust episode which occurred on April 2001 in the Aral Sea region. The meteorological fields were simulated using the PSU/NCAR MM5 modeling system considering two different boundary layer parameterizations. In each case, emitted dust fluxes were computed off-line by incorporating MM5 meteorological fields into the dust module DuMo. Several dust emission schemes with a prescribed erodible fraction and fixed threshold wind speed were the subject of our analysis. Implications to assessment of the anthropogenic fraction of dust emitted in the Aral region were investigated by conducting the full, half, and no lake modeling experiments.Our results show that the discrepancies in dust fluxes between the two different PBLs are much higher compared to the discrepancy associated with the use of considered dust production schemes. Furthermore, the choice of the PBL affects the timing and duration of a modeled dust event. We demonstrate that different combinations of the PBL parameterization and wind- or friction velocity-driven dust emission schemes can result in up to about a 50% difference in predicted dust mass caused by the Aral Sea desiccation. We found that the drying-up of the Aral cannot only affect the dust emission by expanding the source area, but also by affecting atmospheric characteristics, especially winds. These competitive factors add further complexity to quantification of the anthropogenic dust fraction in the region.     

2011年江苏南部两场大暴雨对比分析

利用高分辨率的加密气象自动站资料、FY2D卫星资料、多普勒雷达资料、常规观测资料以及6 h 1次的NCEP再分析资料等,对2011年6月18日和2011年7月18日江苏地区分别发生在梅雨期开始阶段和结束阶段的两场暴雨进行中尺度天气系统演变和雷达回波参数等特征的对比分析。结果表明:(1)6月18日的天气形势是典型的梅雨期降水形势,在梅雨锋附近产生了区域性暴雨。水汽输送主要是对流层中低层的西南暖湿气流。7月18日的局地暴雨则是出现在低压倒槽顶端右侧的偏东气流中。(2)两次暴雨过程强降水发生前都存在对流层低层辐合快速增强的过程。7月18日暴雨强降水发生前散度值下降则更为迅速。(3)两次暴雨过程中强降水区都出现在地面辐合系统附近的东北气流中,且随着地面辐合系统移动。(4)两次暴雨过程都出现了T_BB低于-62℃的强对流云团。(5)6月18日,与多个线性排列的"逆风区"对应的强回波中心形成了"列车效应";7月18日,对流回波带上单体不断流入,在低空急流左前端合并成团状强对流区,分别是形成两次暴雨的重要原因。     

Mesoscale dynamics and its application in torrential rainfall systems in China

Progress over the past decade in understanding moisture-driven dynamics and torrential rain storms in China is reviewed in this paper. First, advances in incorporating moisture effects more realistically into theory are described, including the development of a new parameter, generalized moist potential vorticity(GMPV) and an improved moist ageostrophic Q vector(Qum). Advances in vorticity dynamics are also described, including the adoption of a "parcel dynamic" approach to investigate the development of the vertical vorticity of an air parcel; a novel theory of slantwise vorticity development, proposed because vorticity develops easily near steep isentropic surfaces; and the development of the convective vorticity vector(CVV)as an effective new tool. The significant progress in both frontal dynamics and wave dynamics is also summarized, including the geostrophic adjustment of initial unbalanced flow and the dual role of boundary layer friction in frontogenesis, as well as the interaction between topography and fronts, which indicate that topographic perturbations alter both frontogenesis and frontal structure. For atmospheric vortices, mixed wave/vortex dynamics has been extended to explain the propagation of spiral rainbands and the development of dynamical instability in tropical cyclones. Finally, we review wave and basic flow interaction in torrential rainfall, for which it was necessary to extend existing theory from large-scale flows to mesoscale fields, enriching our knowledge of mesoscale atmospheric dynamics.     

中国南海区1992-2012年的中尺度涡旋演化过程表达与统计分析

Automated identification and tracking of mesoscale ocean eddies has recently become one research hotspot in physical oceanography. Several methods have been developed and applied to survey the general kinetic and geometric characteristics of the ocean eddies in the South China Sea（SCS）. However, very few studies attempt to examine eddies＇ internal evolution processes. In this study, we reported a hybrid method to trace eddies＇ propagation in the SCS based on their internal structures, which are characterized by eddy centers, footprint borders, and composite borders. Eddy identification and tracking results were represented by a GIS-based spatiotemporal model. Information on instant states, dynamic evolution processes, and events of disappearance, reappearance, split, and mergence is stored in a GIS database. Results were validated by comparing against the ten Dongsha Cyclonic Eddies（DCEs） and the three long-lived anticyclonic eddies（ACEs） in the northern SCS, which were reported in previous literature. Our study confirmed the development of these eddies. Furthermore, we found more DCE-like and ACE-like eddies in these areas from 2005 to 2012 in our database. Spatial distribution analysis of disappearing, reappearing, splitting, and merging activities shows that eddies in the SCS tend to cluster to the northwest of Luzon Island, southwest of Luzon Strait, and around the marginal sea of Vietnam. Kuroshio intrusions and the complex sea floor topography in these areas are the possible factors that lead to these spatial clusters.