基于水位流量关系的流量估算不确定性分析

针对现有水位流量关系线型物理机制不强及流量估算不确定性来源考虑不充分问题,以北江流域石角水文站为例,推导该测站水位流量关系,基于BaRatin模型评估流量测量误差及率定样本选取对估算流量不确定性的影响。发现河槽控制宽浅矩形断面水位流量关系为幂函数,其系数可用糙率、河宽、比降表达,指数为定值5/3;考虑流量测量误差后高水估算流量总不确定性减小32%;率定数据增加1倍、3倍,高水估算流量总不确定性减小12%、34%。结果表明:① 水位流量关系模型建立方法可推广至多类型测站;② 高水测量误差对率定精度影响较大,建议提高高水流量测量精度;③ 现有实测水位与流量数据存在信息冗余,主要存在于低水数据中,本方法可减少率定数据使用,降低整编成本。     

Analysis of foreshock sequence of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake of M S 7.3

The “earthquake nucleation” is discussed in this paper. The acceleration is a property of the nucleation phase and is a necessary condition of earthquake instability too. If the acceleration property of this nucleating process is described by the equation dΘ/dt=C/(t _f−t) ⁿ , the process can be summarized briefly that the rate of cumulative seismic release is proportional to the inverse power of the remaining time to failure. Based on this principle, the foreshock sequence of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake withM _S7.3, was analysed backward. It is stated clearly that the time-to-failure and magnitude of the mainshock can be predicted successfully if the coefficientr ² attains to the maximum. In the estimation of mainshock time, the error can generally be less than, or far less than, one-half the remaining time between the time of the last used data point and the mainshock. Contribution No. 95A0024, Institute of Geophysics, SSB, China. This study is the "Eighth-Five" contract project ofSSB.     

地铁地网反向法测试接地阻抗研究

接地阻抗是地铁地网测试的重要内容之一。在实际工作中很少使用反向法测试接地阻抗。对石家庄地铁1号线南村站地网进行了反向法实地测试试验,分析了试验数据,并与直线补偿法的试验结果进行了比较。试验结果表明,在土壤电阻率相对均匀的情况下,反向法能有效降低电流线和电位线线间互感因素的影响,但是测试得到的总体的接地阻抗数值偏小。其结果可以作为接地网测量结果的下限值,如果其他方法测试的结果小于反向法测量结果,则可认定其他的测量存在一定的错误;如果反向布置的电位极和电流极间的距离相当大,则可以用此法得到被测接地装置的真实接地阻抗;如果允许接地阻抗测试结果的误差在一定范围内,通过合理布设电流线和电位线的长度,可以把反向法作为地铁地网接地阻抗的测试方法。     

Appropriate Sampling for Optimised Measurement (ASOM), rather than the Theory of Sampling (TOS) Approach,to Ensure Suitable Measurement Quality: A Refutation of Esbensen and Wagner (2014)

The ‘Appropriate Sampling for Optimised Measurement’ (ASOM) approach considers measurement to be the focus of the sampling process, and sampling to be only the first part of the measurement process. To achieve ASOM, the uncertainty of measurements, including its contribution from sampling, needs to be estimated and optimised in order to achieve fitness‐for‐purpose. Such samples are then ‘sufficiently’ representative. The ‘Theory of Sampling’ (TOS) focuses on the processes of primary sampling and sample preparation and assumes that samples are ‘representative’ if they are correctly prepared by nominally ‘correct’ protocols. It defines around ten sampling ‘errors’, which are either modelled or minimised to improve sampling quality. It is argued that the ASOM approach is more effective in achieving appropriate measurement quality than in applying TOS to just the first part of the measurement process. The comparison is made less effective by the different objectives, scopes, terminology and assumptions of the two approaches. ASOM can be applied to in situ materials that are too variable to be modelled accurately, or where sources of uncertainty are unsuspected. The proposed integration of ASOM with TOS (Esbensen and Wagner 2014, Trends in Analytical Chemistry, 57, 93–106) is therefore effectively impossible. However, some TOS procedures can be useful within the ASOM approach.     

Bayesian Equivalent Sample Toolkit (BEST): an Excel VBA program for probabilistic characterisation of geotechnical properties from limited observation data

In site investigation, the amount of observation data obtained for geotechnical property characterisation is often too sparse to obtain meaningful statistics and probability distributions of geotechnical properties. To address this problem, a Bayesian equivalent sample method was recently developed. This paper aims to generalize the Bayesian equivalent sample method to various geotechnical properties, when measured by different direct or indirect test procedures, and to implement the generalized method in Excel by developing an Excel VBA program called Bayesian Equivalent Sample Toolkit (BEST). The BEST program makes it possible for practitioners to apply the Bayesian equivalent sample method without being compromised by sophisticated algorithms in probability, statistics and simulation. The program is demonstrated and validated through examples of soil and rock property characterisations.     

Research Progress on Electrical Properties and Conductivity Measurement Technology of Ice Core

Ice core is an important object of the global climate change research, and can extract paleoclimate information by physical and chemical methods. As one of the major physical analysis technology, conductivity measurement technology mainly contains two methods and has been applied to many drilling project. The technology reflects the ice core electrical properties influenced by factors such as temperature, pressure, impurities and changes, and the cause of these changes can be explained from the aspects of macroscopic and microscopic. What obtained from measurement can be used to the research of dating, volcanic events, accumulation rate, biomass burning, ion concentration recovery, which systematically help us to understand the quaternary evolution of Antarctic climate since late pleistocene. This paper summarized in detail the main research achievements on electrical properties and dielectric measurement technology of ice core, and also discussed the prospect of the technology in China deep ice core project further.     

基于烃汞测量和矿山三维模型的找矿预测——以河南灵宝市杨砦峪金矿为例

杨砦峪金矿是典型的石英脉型金矿。本文在分析杨砦峪金矿烃类组分异常场特征和矿山三维模型特征的基础上,总结了其找矿评价标准和成矿地质要素,并对其进行了深部找矿预测,结果发现,烃气测量和矿山三围模型的预测结果具有较好的吻合性,该金矿8~10线的730中段深部还具有较大的找矿潜力。     

基于误差理论的产状测量精度评定

以边坡为研究对象,针对基于罗盘、免棱镜全站仪、激光测距仪、三维激光扫描仪和数字摄影测量工作站的5种产状测量方法,采用误差理论进行产状测量精度评定。研究表明,罗盘产状测量的倾向、倾角中误差分别为±4°和±3°,其精度评定既可以提高对罗盘产状测量精度的认识,也可为其他4种非接触类产状测量方法的精度评定提供验算数据。利用罗盘只能进行高陡边坡下部结构面的产状测量,测量范围有限且高耗低效;非接触类产状测量方法则可以解决人员难以到达的高陡边坡上部结构面的产状测量问题。其中,三维激光扫描和数字近景摄影测量方法可以获取边坡岩体大量随机结构面上的产状信息,为基于随机动力学的边坡稳定性评价提供重要的基础数据。     

Field Studies of Dynamic Compaction on Marine Deposits

Marine deposit ground usually need significant improvement before the construction of civil structures in coastal areas due to the poor mechanical properties of soils. Dynamic compaction (DC) is a widely used technique in such projects. In this study, a case history of DC tests in sandy soils with a weak embedded layer is introduced. Two series of DC tests—single point tests and impact zone tests—were applied to test zones with similar geological conditions to investigate the effect of energy level on the depth of improvement (DI). The highest energy used is up to 15000 kN · m. Field measurements were conduct before and after DC in each series to validate the effectiveness of improvement, including crater settlement, excessive pore pressure, and acceleration measurement for single point tests, and the pressure meter and CPT tests for impact zone tests. For single point tests, the effectiveness of improvement increases as the energy level increases to 12000 kN · m. Further increase of compaction energy does not have an effect on settlement, pore pressure, or ground acceleration. For impact zone tests, the energy level does not show a positive correlation with the DI, mainly due to the presence of an embedded weak layer.     

Uncertainty Analysis of Wind-Wave Predictions in Lake Michigan

With all the improvement in wave and hydrodynamics numerical models, the question rises in our mind that how the accuracy of the forcing functions and their input can affect the results. In this paper, a commonly used numerical third-generation wave model, SWAN is applied to predict waves in Lake Michigan. Wind data are analyzed to determine wind variation frequency over Lake Michigan. Wave predictions uncertainty due to wind local effects are compared during a period where wind has a fairly constant speed and direction over the northern and southern basins. The study shows that despite model calibration in Lake Michigan area, the model deficiency arises from ignoring wind effects in small scales. Wave prediction also emphasizes that small scale turbulence in meteorological forces can increase prediction errors by 38%. Wave frequency and coherence analysis show that both models can predict the wave variation time scale with the same accuracy. Insufficient number of meteorological stations can result in neglecting local wind effects and discrepancies in current predictions. The uncertainty of wave numerical models due to input uncertainties and model principals should be taken into account for design risk factors.