Analysis of uncertainties in the hydrological response of a model‐based climate change impact assessment in a subcatchment of the Spree River,Germany

Climate change impact assessments form the basis for the development of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. For this purpose, ensembles consisting of stepwise coupled models are generally used [emission scenario → global circulation model → downscaling approach (DA) → bias correction → impact model (hydrological model)], in which every item is affected by considerable uncertainty. The aim of the current study is (1) to analyse the uncertainty related to the choice of the DA as well as the hydrological model and its parameterization and (2) to evaluate the vulnerability of the studied catchment, a subcatchment of the highly anthropogenically impacted Spree River catchment, to hydrological change. Four different DAs are used to drive four different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (Water Balance Simulation Model developed at ETH Zürich and HBV‐light). In total, 452 simulations are carried out. The results show that all simulations compute an increase in air temperature and potential evapotranspiration. For precipitation, runoff and actual evapotranspiration, opposing trends are computed depending on the DA used to drive the hydrological models. Overall, the largest source of uncertainty can be attributed to the choice of the DA, especially regarding whether it is statistical or dynamical. The choice of the hydrological model and its parameterization is of less importance when long‐term mean annual changes are compared. The large bandwidth at the end of the modelling chain may exacerbate the formulation of suitable climate change adaption strategies on the regional scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

非单一水平均匀下垫面空气动力学参数的确定

文章介绍了一种利用单一高度风速、温度湍流资料确定空气动力学参数的方法。该方法无须进行风速廓线的测量，可以应用于非单一水平均匀下垫面和非中性层结，避免了主观性。用该方法计算了北京城市北部边缘325 m气象塔附近的零值位移d和地表粗糙 z0。结果表明:该处下垫面零值位移d和地表粗糙度z0与风向有很强的依赖关系，与气象塔周围的城市建设相对应。     

基于加速器控制网的GPS绝对测量精度探讨

针对当前散裂中子源准直测量控制网空间距离大、绝对精度要求高,常规测量难以满足需要的问题,提出采用不受通视限制、高精度的GPS测量解决,通过GPS在“标准检测场”准直实验,计算分析后处理软件、观测仪器及观测时长对GPS绝对测量精度的影响,结果表明,1km的测区范围,商业软件解算结果优于科研软件,且商业软件中TTC解算精度最高;分体机比一体机观测精度更高,但随观测时长增长,二者精度相当;观测时长超过8小时以上,基线值将趋于稳定。     

Geophysical flows under location uncertainty,Part I Random transport and general models

A stochastic flow representation is considered with the Eulerian velocity decomposed between a smooth large scale component and a rough small-scale turbulent component. The latter is specified as a random field uncorrelated in time. Subsequently, the material derivative is modified and leads to a stochastic version of the material derivative to include a drift correction, an inhomogeneous and anisotropic diffusion, and a multiplicative noise. As derived, this stochastic transport exhibits a remarkable energy conservation property for any realizations. As demonstrated, this pivotal operator further provides elegant means to derive stochastic formulations of classical representations of geophysical flow dynamics.     

内蒙古固阳县席麻塔一带共轭剪切带的地质特征及形成机制

通过区调填图在内蒙古固阳县北山新太古代石英闪长岩和中元古代英云闪长岩中发现了韧性剪切带.通过野外调查、应变测量及显微构造、电子探针等方法研究表明, 该韧性剪切带为两组呈共轭组合型式产出, 形成机制与西伯利亚板块和华北板块相互挤压作用有关, 为在地球较深层次、在压扁环境下的简单剪切, 形成时代为中元古代末期, 变质相为绿片岩相.      

土壤样品中稀土元素的高分辨电感耦合等离子质谱分析及其不确定度的评定探讨

在敞开体系中,用HF、HNO₃和HClO₄溶解电感耦合等离子体质谱法同时测定土壤样品中的15种稀土元素。在高分辨等离子体质谱仪(Element2)上建立了土壤样品中稀土元素含量的ICP-MS分析方法,经土壤国家一级标准物质分析验证,结果与标准值相符,测定的15种稀土元素的相对标准偏差均小于10%,加标回收率为96.5%~114.7%。实验表明,该方法不但操作简便快速,而且具有灵敏度高、检出限低,重现性好等优点,举例说明了测量不确定度的评定程序。     

耐高温高压复合保温管研究

耐高温高压复合保温管主要解决超高温高压环境下钻孔测量问题。为攻克超高温高压环境下真空绝热保温、高压密封等关键技术,研究的耐高温高压复合保温管为“超高温钻孔测量仪”提供一种耐高温承压管,使用环境温度可达270 ℃,压力120 MPa。通过室内测试与现场应用,说明其满足超高温高压要求,可应用于高温地热能钻探工程、干热岩钻探工程、科学钻探工程、深部矿产资源勘探和深部油气资源勘探等工程中,为超高温大深度钻井测量提供技术支撑。     

基于GPS单点测速的海浪测量方法初探

首先分析比对了已有的测波方法,阐述了将GPS单点测速应用到测波中的优点.然后讨论了基于多普勒频移的测速方法,并分析了各类误差对测速精度的影响.最后利用静态数据进行动态测速模拟试验和实测动态数据测速与RTK (Real Time Kinematic,实时动态测量系统)位置差分测速进行—致性检验.结果表明,使用静态数据采用...     

Month-Long Simulations of Gravity Waves over North America and North Atlantic in Comparison with Satellite Observations

Mesoscale simulations of gravity waves in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over North America and North Atlantic Ocean in January 2003 are compared with satellite radiance measurements from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A). Four regions of strong gravity wave (GW) activities are found in the model simulations and the AMSU-A observations: the northwestern Atlantic, the U.S. Rockies, the Appalachians, and Greenland. GWs over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean are associated with the midlatitude baroclinic jet-front system, while the other three regions are apparently related to high topography. Model simulations are further used to analyze momentum fluxes in the zonal and meridional directions. It is found that strong westward momentum fluxes are prevalent over these regions over the whole period. Despite qualitative agreement between model simulations and satellite measurements, sensitivity experiments demonstrate that the simulated GWs are sensitive to the model spin-up time.     

震后桥梁挠度测量方法的设计与实现

对震后桥梁稳定性与安全性检测过程中,挠度是一项重要检测指标,但是测量这一参数较为复杂,干扰较多,结果存在较大问题。设计一种震后桥梁挠度测量方法。根据实际桥梁设置相关参数,采用共轭梁法计算震后桥梁固定点的初始挠度,结合震后桥梁挠度曲线函数,获得欲求解的桥梁截面挠度值;修正桥梁截面挠度值时,将监测点高程差同基准点高程差间的差值问题替代挠度偏差问题,分析倾斜传感器获取维护点倾斜传感器的理论值和基准点倾斜传感器的理论值,确定挠度偏差,修正震后桥梁挠度测量值。通过简支梁与连续梁实验,验证测量震后桥梁挠度时,具有更高测量精度。