天山西部中山带积雪变化趋势与气温和降水的关系——以巩乃斯河谷为例

根据位于巩乃斯河谷的天山积雪雪崩研究站近30年来的年最大雪深、月平均气温、月降水量观测记录，用平均差值法、最小二乘法、自回归滑动平均法检验了天山西部中山带积雪、冷季降水、冷季平均气温的变化趋势，结果表明，天山西部中山带积雪呈增加趋势，近30年来年平均增加1.43%，与青藏高原、南极大陆及格陵兰冰盖表面积雪积累增加相一致。天山西部中山带冷季气温和降水的变化趋势也是增加的，其中冷季降水平年平均增加0．12％，而冷季气温升高了0．8℃，积雪与冷季气温之间存在着弱的负相关关系，而与冷季降水呈显著的正相关关系。积雪的增加主要是因为气候变暖引起的冷季降水的增加对积雪增加的贡献大于由于冷季气温升高而造成积雪减少的贡献的结果。     

基于GIS的滑坡CF多元回归模型及其应用

目前基于GIS滑坡变形失稳危险性评价方法均有各自的局限性。本文在基于数据的数学统计模型的基础上提出CF多元回归模型。通过将滑坡确定性稳定系数与回归模型的融合，在一定程度以解决了滑坡评价过程中影响因子的选择和量化的问题，有利于建立准确的滑坡分析模型。最后，将模型应用于云南小江流域，进行了该区的滑坡空间分布及稳定性分析。     

Palaeolimnology of Lake Piene-Kuuppalanlampi (Kurkijoki, Karelian Republic, Russia): isolation history, lake ecosystem development and long-term agricultural impact

The post-glacial history of Lake Pieni-Kuuppalanlampi, western Lake Ladoga region, was studied by means of stratigraphic pollen and diatom analyses. Diatoms were analysed to track the isolation history of the basin and the limnological effects of the early land-use phases indicated by pollen analysis. Chrysophycean stomatocysts and Isoëtes spores were also employed in the limnological reconstructions. Sediment dating was provided by six conventional radiocarbon dates.The lower part of the 370-cm long sediment sequence represents early Holocene, large lake conditions: the (freshwater) Yoldia and Ancylus stages of the Baltic basin, with a short-term lagoonal or isolation phase at the end of Yoldia. The basin was isolated due to Ancylus lake regression at 9785 cal B.P. For the small-lake sequence (0–250 cm) we used diatom inferences (WA-method) for hindcasting water chemistry. The post-isolation limnology of Pieni-Kuuppalanlampi reflects the development of vegetation on its small hill-top catchment. In its early development, the lake was mesotrophic, but became more acidic (pH about 6) and oligotrophic after the decline of temperate hardwood trees and the spread of spruce to the area after around 5000 B.P. The lake ecosystem appears to have reacted sensitively to agricultural land-use in the catchment from AD 400–800 onwards: inferred total phosphorus levels and pH both rise during these periods.     

Soulèvement et plissement tectoniques révélés par analyse mathématique empirique de profils longitudinaux de rivières : un cas à TaiwanEmpirical mathematical analysis of longitudinal river profiles reveals tectonic uplift and folding: a case in Taiwan

We analyse longitudinal river profiles in southwestern Taiwan. As all necessary data are not available, a physical modelling of river erosion would be subject to large uncertainties. We thus shortcut this modelling and adopt simple empirical exponential equations giving riverbed elevation as a function of downstream distance. We identify a positive altimetric anomaly, which reveals active uplift of an anticline at the front of the fold-and-thrust belt. To cite this article: J. Angelier, R.-F. Chen, C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1103–1111.     

合肥市耕地和粮食可持续发展研究

收集1980～1999年合肥市耕地、人口、粮食等资料，定量分析在城市化快速发展下耕地的数量、质量变化和耕地减少的形式以及人口、粮食的变化，并用回归法分析它们的变化趋势。研究认为，在2005，2010年合肥市食物保障能力分别为97％和95％，对粮食生产与其影响因素进行了灰色关联分析，提出提高粮食产量的对策和实现途径。     

PLS法与隧道围岩稳定性分类

围岩稳定性是隧道工程支护设计的基本参数,采用偏最小二乘回归法,综合考虑多因变量影响因素,对隧道围岩稳定性分类进行回归建模,并取得较好效果.     

江淮地区地震烈度衰减关系的研究

地震烈度衰减关系具有较强的地区性,这是由于不同地区的震源特性、传播介质和场地条件的不同而引起.研究区(北纬29°～35°,东经114°～120°)位于华北地震区和华南地震区之间的过渡地区,地震活动性总体水平不高,烈度衰减关系有其自身的震源特性、传播介质和场地衰减特性等.本次工作重新挑选震例,对研究区的地震烈度衰减规律进行了统计回归分析,并与该地区已有的地震烈度衰减关系进行认真的比较分析.     

Modelling the effects of temperature and food on individual growth and reproduction of Daphnia and their consequences on the population level

Individual based simulations of population dynamics require the availability of growth models with adequate complexity. For this purpose a simple-to-use model (non-linear multiple regression approach) is presented describing somatic growth and reproduction of Daphnia as a function of time, temperature and food quantity. The model showed a good agreement with published observations of somatic growth (r² = 0.954, n = 88) and egg production (r² = 0.898, n = 35). Temperature is the main determinant of initial somatic growth and food concentration is the main determinant of maximal body length and clutch size. An individual based simulation was used to demonstrate the simultaneous effects of food and temperature on the population level. Evidently, both temperature and food supply affected the population growth rate but at food concentrations above approximately 0.4 mg Cl⁻¹ Scenedesmus acutus temperature appeared as the main determinant of population growth.

Four simulation examples are given to show the wide applicability of the model: (1) analysis of the correlation between population birth rate and somatic growth rate, (2) contribution of egg development time and delayed somatic growth to temperature-effects on population growth, (3) comparison of population birth rate in simulations with constant vs. decreasing size at maturity with declining food concentrations and (4) costs of diel vertical migration. Due to its plausible behaviour over a broad range of temperature (2–20 °C) and food conditions (0.1–4 mg Cl⁻¹) the model can be used as a module for more detailed simulations of Daphnia population dynamics under realistic environmental conditions.     

Decoupled seismic analysis of an earth dam

The seismic stability of an earth dam is evaluated via the decoupled displacement analysis using the accelerograms obtained by ground response analysis to compute the earthquake-induced displacements. The response analysis of the dam is carried out under both 1D and 2D conditions, incorporating the non-linear soil behaviour through the equivalent linear method. Ten artificial and five real accelerograms were used as input motions and four different depths were assumed for the bedrock.1D and 2D response analyses were in a fair agreement with the exception of the top third of the dam where only a 2D modelling of the problem could ensure that the acceleration field is properly described. The acceleration amplification ratio obtained in the 2D analyses was equal to about 2 in all the cases considered, consistently with data from real case histories.The maximum permanent displacements computed by the sliding block analysis were small, being less than 10% of the service freeboard; a satisfactory performance of the dam can then be envisaged for any of the seismic scenarios considered in the analyses.