Exploring the sensitivity of coastal inundation modelling to DEM vertical error

As sea level is projected to rise throughout the twenty-first century due to climate change, there is a need to ensure that sea level rise (SLR) models accurately and defensibly represent future flood inundation levels to allow for effective coastal zone management. Digital elevation models (DEMs) are integral to SLR modelling, but are subject to error, including in their vertical resolution. Error in DEMs leads to uncertainty in the output of SLR inundation models, which if not considered, may result in poor coastal management decisions. However, DEM error is not usually described in detail by DEM suppliers; commonly only the RMSE is reported. This research explores the impact of stated vertical error in delineating zones of inundation in two locations along the Devon, United Kingdom, coastline (Exe and Otter Estuaries). We explore the consequences of needing to make assumptions about the distribution of error in the absence of detailed error data using a 1 m, publically available composite DEM with a maximum RMSE of 0.15 m, typical of recent LiDAR-derived DEMs. We compare uncertainty using two methods (i) the NOAA inundation uncertainty mapping method which assumes a normal distribution of error and (ii) a hydrologically correct bathtub method where the DEM is uniformly perturbed between the upper and lower bounds of a 95% linear error in 500 Monte Carlo Simulations (HBM+MCS). The NOAA method produced a broader zone of uncertainty (an increase of 134.9% on the HBM+MCS method), which is particularly evident in the flatter topography of the upper estuaries. The HBM+MCS method generates a narrower band of uncertainty for these flatter areas, but very similar extents where shorelines are steeper. The differences in inundation extents produced by the methods relate to a number of underpinning assumptions, and particularly, how the stated RMSE is interpreted and used to represent error in a practical sense. Unlike the NOAA method, the HBM+MCS model is computationally intensive, depending on the areas under consideration and the number of iterations. We therefore used the HBM+ MCS method to derive a regression relationship between elevation and inundation probability for the Exe Estuary. We then apply this to the adjacent Otter Estuary and show that it can defensibly reproduce zones of inundation uncertainty, avoiding the computationally intensive step of the HBM+MCS. The equation-derived zone of uncertainty was 112.1% larger than the HBM+MCS method, compared to the NOAA method which produced an uncertain area 423.9% larger. Each approach has advantages and disadvantages and requires value judgements to be made. Their use underscores the need for transparency in assumptions and communications of outputs. We urge DEM publishers to move beyond provision of a generalised RMSE and provide more detailed estimates of spatial error and complete metadata, including locations of ground control points and associated land cover.     

中国县域耕地与农业劳动力变化的时空耦合关系

利用1996 年、2000 年和2005 年中国县域耕地与农业劳动力数据,基于GIS 技术和模型方法,分析了县域耕地面积与农业劳动力变化态势及其时空耦合特征。研究表明：① 县域耕地面积和农业劳动力变化均呈先增后减态势。1996-2000 年,耕地总量、劳动力数量分别增长2.70%和1.40%;2000-2005 年,耕地总量、劳动力数量分别减少1.51%和8.18%。②“胡焕庸线”是刻画中国耕地和劳动力变化格局的重要分界线。沿此线带状区域内因退耕还林造成耕地快速减少,而农业劳动力转移滞后;其西北部区域耕地快速增加,农业劳动力也在增长;其东南部区域耕地明显减少,而农业劳动力减少速度更快,二者呈现协调态势。③ 耕地非农化进程中县域劳动力转移效率呈下降趋势。1996-2000 年和2000-2005 年,全国分别有447 个和505 个县域的耕地减少和劳动力转移呈良性变化,90%的县域劳耕弹性系数(LFEC) 的中位数分别为4.58 和2.97。④ 基于SOM自组织特征映射神经网络聚类方法,可将1996-2005 年中国县域耕地与劳动力变化的耦合特征划分为9大类型区。多情景模拟分析表明,2005-2015年的LFEC趋势值为2.55。     

中国沿岸主要验潮站海图深度基准面的计算与分析

全球导航卫星系统干涉反射测量（global navigation satellite system-interferometric reflectometry,GNSS-IR）技术可利用信噪比（signal-to-noise ratio,SNR）数据包含的多路径信息反演潮位,但通常需限制仰角范围,导致可用数据量少以及时间分辨率不足。针对上述问题,提出一种数据质量控制方法,重构SNR残差序列获得仅受多路径影响的SNR序列,再设计并训练Transformer神经网络模型对数据进行分类,在潮位反演前筛除无效SNR数据,将高仰角数据纳入可用范围。实验表明,该方法可大幅度提升高仰角数据有效率,将反演站点的可用数据仰角范围扩展至5°~30°,从而显著提升可用数据量和潮位反演值的时间分辨率,对利用GNSS-IR技术的海啸、风暴潮实时监测等应用和长期海平面变化等海洋研究具有重要意义。

     

水位动态变化下水体驳岸渗流场及稳定性研究

目前水体驳岸设计只注重景观性与生态性,缺乏水位动态变化对驳岸渗流场及稳定性影响的研究。以澧水河2007-2012年水文地质资料为基础,从驳岸水位动态变化速度、岸坡安全系数两个角度,研究不同水位升降速度的驳岸稳定性变化规律。研究表明:水位动态变化对驳岸渗流场有明显影响,水位变化速度快,驳岸自由水面变化滞后越明显;驳岸水位上升时,其安全系数由大变小再到稳定;随着水位逐渐下降,驳岸安全系数先减小,当水位达到一定高度(此时安全系数最小)时,安全系数逐渐回升。研究结论用以指导水体驳岸设计,对水体驳岸在水位动态变化条件下安全运行具有现实意义。     

三峡库区树坪滑坡地下水渗流场分析

库岸边坡的地下水分布对其稳定性影响重大。以三峡库区树坪滑坡为例,基于Visual Modflow软件,对不同工况下的地下水渗流场进行数值模拟。结论表明：滑坡地下水位随着库水位波动而变化; 滑坡体后缘地下水受到影响较小,中部和前缘水头变化明显; 在库水位下降过程中,滑坡体内地下水随时间变化呈现水位不变、加速下降、降速减缓、稳定水位的趋势,且不同库水降速只对地下水位变化速率产生影响,对最终地下水位没有影响; 库水位降速越大,滑坡前缘地下水位变化越强烈,水力梯度也越大,且在滑坡东西两侧边界处形成的水力梯度最大。其成果将为库岸滑坡渗流场变化及稳定性分析提供一定的参考价值。     

柴西开特米里克地区干柴沟组米氏旋回及湖平面变化特征

目前,柴达木盆地米兰科维奇旋回研究普遍基于山前浅水沉积相地层进行讨论,而深水相地层中是否有记录米兰科维奇旋回特征有待探讨。本次研究通过对开2井上干柴沟组（N₁）和下干柴沟组上段（E₃²）自然伽马测井曲线进行频谱分析和滤波分析,探讨了盆地西部开特米里克地区深湖相地层的米兰科维奇沉积旋回特征。结果显示,该地区上干柴沟组（N₁）和下干柴沟组（E₃²）地层旋回周期与米兰科维奇地球轨道周期参数具有良好的对应性,说明天文轨道周期旋回对该地区地层沉积具有显著影响。在此基础上,结合Fischer图解及地层岩性特征,确定了干柴沟组上、下界线附近（约38.1~32.8 Ma）湖平面经历了一次相对长周期的升降变化。下干柴沟组上段处于湖平面上升阶段,主要受米氏旋回中的偏心率周期控制,气候相对温暖湿润,对应湖平面高位期。上干柴沟组处于湖平面下降阶段,主要受米氏旋回中的轴斜率周期控制,气候相对寒冷干旱,对应湖平面低位期。

     

一次辽宁秋季暴雨天气的诊断分析

使用1.0°×1.0°NCEP再分析资料,对2006年10月21—22日深秋暴雨在天气形势分析的基础上,进行物理量诊断。结果表明:在有利的环境背景形势下,高位涡从对流层高层向低层伸展并形成湿位涡柱,引起气旋性环流与低涡环流叠加。对流层低层的湿斜压性增强,引起低层的锋区加强及垂直涡度发展,高空入侵干冷空气锲入底层,低层暖湿空气强迫抬升,使地面发展为气旋;高低空急流耦合产生上升气流,同时较强的补偿下沉运动激发上升运动加强,使次级环流加强,触发不稳定能量的释放;低空急流和超低空急流向辽宁输送暖湿空气及能量,对流层中低层形成湿柱并积聚高不稳定能量;中尺度气旋、高低空急流、湿位涡柱、次级环流上升支、地面高水汽含量湿区、高假相当位温出现的时间、强度、位置和结构决定了暴雨的时间和落区。     

末次冰盛期-全新世东海陆坡滑塌沉积的地质年代与沉积学证据

基于东海陆坡区OT12-01孔长度为5.35 m沉积物AMS 14C测年、高分辨率粒度分析和XRF岩芯元素扫描数据,识别出了末次冰盛期(LGM)至全新世期间发生的多次滑塌事件。研究发现,OT12-01孔全新世晚期沉积层缺失,LGM至全新世期间呈现AMS 14C年龄模式频繁倒转、沉积物粒度、元素比值垂向上多处突变或"错动"等特征,保存了LGM至全新世非连续的沉积记录。OT12-01孔沉积物主要来源于低海平面时期的长江/黄河物质,OT12-01孔是由中国大陆陆源物质在东海陆架经水动力分选,细颗粒被搬运至东海陆坡后,发生多次滑塌形成。LGM时期物源供给是OT12-01孔形成滑塌沉积的重要因素,末次冰消期海平面快速上升可能是高频滑塌沉积的触发原因,而低海平面时期甲烷水合物溢出、频繁的地震和火山喷发可能是海底滑坡作用发生的诱因。     

利用HLA的分布式虚拟森林环境构建

以分布式虚拟森林灭火环境为例,基于HLA/RTI协议,设计和初步实现了地形、树木、林火、灭火工具联邦成员组成的分布式森林灭火仿真系统虚拟场景的三维动态生成与显示。系统将仿真的底层通讯和上层的模型控制框架、三维图形绘制分离开来,形成各个独立的模块,具有扩展性和重用性。     

Study on methods of land use dynamic monitoring at county level

Remote sensing technique has played an important role in land use dynamic monitoring, but as for the land use dynamic monitoring at county level, traditional remote sensing methods such as satellite imagery visual interpretation and computer classification can not meet its demand for accuracy. The result of 1: 10 000 land use investigation map has high accuracy, but this method can not be used to dynamically monitor the land use because of its big expenses, long period and difficulty in updating data. In this paper, the characteristics of physiognomy, climate and the status of land use in Dehui County are taken into consideration and a set of method, which takes use of 3S techniques and applies to Northeast China Plain, is come up with. When the land use type of a land parcel changed as a whole, the date updating can be make by changing its land type ID in the attribute table in a GIS. When the land use type of an irregular area changed, GPS receivers are used to position its border. This set of method is characteristic of high accuracy and low expenses. It gets the information of land use change timely and can be used to dynamically monitor the land use. Foundation item: Under the auspices of the key project of the National Ninth Five-year Plan (96-B02-01-07). Biography: LI Lin-yi (1968 —), female, a native of Jilin, Ph. D. candidate of Changchun Institute of Geography, the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Her research interest includes land use change monitoring and crop yield estimation using “3S” techniques.