Numerical experiments for Typhoon Dan incorporating AMSU-A retrieved data with 3DVM

Two sets of assimilation experiments on a landfalling typhoon—Typhoon Dan(1999)over the western North Pacific were designed to compare the performances of two kinds of variational data assimilation schemes that are the 3-Dimensional Variational data assimilation of Mapped observation(3DVM)and the 4-dimensional variational data assimilation(4DVar).Results show that:(1)both the 3DVM and 4DVar successfully improved the simulations of typhoon intensity and track incorporating the satellite AMSU-A retrieved temperature and wind data into the initial conditions,and the 3DVM more significantly due to the flow-dependent of background error covariance matrix and observation error covariance matrix like 3-dimensional variational data assimilation(3DVar)circle;(2)inclusions of extra model integration iterations at each observation time in the 3DVM make it more consistent with prediction model;(3)the 3DVM is much more time-saving due to the exclusion of the adjoint technique in it.     

登陆青岛的热带气旋及其降水特征分析

利用中国台风年鉴资料、地面及探空观测资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析数据以及NERA-GOOS海温数据,首先分析了1949-2019年在青岛登陆的四个热带气旋特征,然后对1909号台风“利奇马”对山东半岛造成的降水强度差异进行对比研究.分析表明:1)1949年以来有4个台风于8月以登陆北上和登陆转向路径在青岛登陆,其在中...     

台风在我国登陆地点的年际变化及其与夏季东亚/太平洋型遥相关的关系

本文利用1979～2007年日本气象厅JRA-25风场和高度场再分析资料和美国JTWC热带气旋的观测资料分析了7～9月份西北太平洋台风和热带气旋 (TC) 在我国登陆地点的年际变化及其与北半球夏季大气环流异常的东亚/太平洋型 (即EAP型) 遥相关的关系, 特别是分析了7～9月份在厦门以北登陆台风和TC数量的年际变化与夏季 (6～8月) EAP指数的相关。分析结果表明: 当夏季 (6～8月) EAP指数为高指数时, 则7～9月份在东亚和西北太平洋上空500 hPa高度场异常将出现 “－, +, －” EAP型遥相关的波列分布, 这时西太平洋副热带高压的位置偏北、 偏东。在这种情况下, 西北太平洋上较多的台风和TC的移动路径偏北, 这引起了7～9月份在我国厦门以北沿海登陆的台风和TC数量偏多。反之, 当夏季 (6～8月) EAP指数为低指数时, 在东亚和西北太平洋上空500 hPa高度场异常为 “+, －, +” 的 EAP型遥相关的波列分布, 这时西太平洋副热带高压的位置偏南、 偏西。在这种情况下, 西北太平洋上较多的台风和TC移动路径偏南, 这引起了7～9月份在我国厦门以北沿海登陆的台风和TC数量偏少, 较多的台风和TC在厦门以南的华南沿海登陆。     

登陆中国大陆、海南和台湾的热带气旋及其相互关系

首先,针对登陆中国热带气旋的登陆地点资料仅为地名的现状,利用1951-2004年西北太平洋热带气旋资料和登陆中国热带气旋资料,研究制定了登陆资料信息化方案.该方案包括海岸线近似、登陆位置计算、其他特征量计算和误差订正4个方面.对资料信息化结果的分析表明:信息化登陆资料效果是良好的.在此基础上,对登陆中国热带气旋的基本气候特征进行研究,重点分析了在大陆、海南和台湾登陆的3类热带气旋以及它们的相互关系.结果表明:登陆热带气旋频繁的地区为台湾东部沿海、福建至雷州半岛沿海和海南东部沿海;台湾东部沿海和浙江沿海部分地区是登陆热带气旋平均强度最大的地区,平均登陆强度达到台风级别,其中台湾南端的平均登陆强度为最强,达到强台风级别;5-11月为热带气旋登陆中国季节,集中期为7-9月,8月最多;登陆热带气旋的强度主要集中在热带低压-台风,尤其以强热带风暴和台风最多.对于全部大陆、海南和台湾三地,50多年来登陆热带气旋频数都存在不同程度的减少趋势,但只有登陆海南热带气旋的减少趋势是显著的;而所有登陆风暴(含以上强度)频数均无明显增多或减少趋势.总体而言,登陆大陆的TC最多、初旋最早、终旋最晚、登陆期最长;登陆海南的TC居中;而登陆台湾的TC最少、初旋最晚、终旋最早、登陆期最短.从登陆方式看,登陆一地的TC最多、登陆两地的TC次之,分别占总数的79.2%和20.6%,仅有1个TC登陆三地.在登陆两地的TC中,经台湾登陆大陆的TC频数最多、强度减弱最快,经海南登陆大陆的TC频数次之、强度减弱较慢,经大陆登陆海南的TC频数排行第3、强度减弱较快.     

登陆台风卡努(0515)内核区环流结构特征分析

本文采用地基雷达轨迹显示技术(Ground Based Velocity Track Display,简称GBVTD)反演的雷达风场资料,分析台风卡努(0515)在登陆期间近中心环流结构特征.轴对称环流结构分析表明,登陆前卡努轴对称切向风速最大值出现在眼墙区域2 km高度附近,最大风速半径随高度向外倾斜.轴对称径向入流...     

Experiments with the Improved Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast Model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation over South China

In recent work, three physical factors of the Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast Model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation (DSAEF_LTP model) have been introduced, namely, tropical cyclone (TC) track, TC landfall season, and TC intensity. In the present study, we set out to test the forecasting performance of the improved model with new similarity regions and ensemble forecast schemes added. Four experiments associated with the prediction of accumulated precipitation were conducted based on 47 landfalling TCs that occurred over South China during 2004-2018. The first experiment was designed as the DSAEF_LTP model with TC track, TC landfall season, and intensity (DSAEF_LTP-1). The other three experiments were based on the first experiment, but with new ensemble forecast schemes added (DSAEF_LTP-2), new similarity regions added (DSAEF_LTP-3), and both added (DSAEF_LTP- 4), respectively. Results showed that, after new similarity regions added into the model (DSAEF_LTP-3), the forecasting performance of the DSAEF_LTP model for heavy rainfall (accumulated precipitation ≥250 mm and ≥100 mm) improved, and the sum of the threat score (TS250 + TS100) increased by 4.44%. Although the forecasting performance of DSAEF_LTP-2 was the same as that of DSAEF_LTP-1, the forecasting performance was significantly improved and better than that of DSAEF_LTP-3 when the new ensemble schemes and similarity regions were added simultaneously (DSAEF_LTP-4), with the TS increasing by 25.36%. Moreover, the forecasting performance of the four experiments was compared with four operational numerical weather prediction models, and the comparison indicated that the DSAEF_LTP model showed advantages in predicting heavy rainfall. Finally, some issues associated with the experimental results and future improvements of the DSAEF_LTP model were discussed.     

A CLOUD-RESOLVING MODELING STUDY OF SURFACE RAINFALL PROCESSES ASSOCIATED WITH LANDFALLING TYPHOON KAEMI(2006)

The detailed surface rainfall processes associated with landfalling typhoon Kaemi(2006) are investigated based on hourly data from a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model simulation. The model is integrated for 6 days with imposed large-scale vertical velocity, zonal wind, horizontal temperature and vapor advection from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) / Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) data. The simulation data are validated with observations in terms of surface rain rate. The Root-Mean-Squared (RMS) difference in surface rain rate between the simulation and the gauge observations is 0.660 mm h^-1, which is smaller than the standard deviations of both the simulated rain rate (0.753 mm h^-1) and the observed rain rate (0.833 mm h^-1). The simulation data are then used to study the physical causes associated with the detailed surface rainfall processes during the landfall. The results show that time averaged and model domain-mean P_s mainly comes from large-scale convergence (Q_WVF) and local vapor loss (positive Q_WVT). Large underestimation (about 15%) of P_s will occur if Q_WVT and Q_CM (cloud source/sink) are not considered as contributors to P_s. Q_WVF accounts for the variation of P_s during most of the integration time, while it is not always a contributor to P_s. Sometimes surface rainfall could occur when divergence is dominant with local vapor loss to be a contributor to P_s. Surface rainfall is a result of multi-timescale interactions. Q_WVE possesses the longest time scale and the lowest frequency of variation with time and may exert impact on P_s in longer time scales. Q_WVF possesses the second longest time scale and lowest frequency and can explain most of the variation of P_s. Q_WVT and Q_CM possess shorter time scales and higher frequencies, which can explain more detailed variations in P_s. Partitioning analysis shows that stratiform rainfall is dominant from the morning of 26 July till the late night of 27 July. After that, convective rainfall dominates till about 1000 LST 28 July. Before 28 July, the variations of in rainfall-free regions contribute less to that of the domain-mean Q_WVT while after that they contribute much, which is consistent to the corresponding variations in their fractional coverage. The variations of Q_WVF in rainfall regions are the main contributors to that of the domain-mean Q_WVF, then the main contributors to the surface rain rate before the afternoon of 28 July.     

登陆热带气旋影响湖南并造成强降水的气候特征

利用1951～2007年热带气旋、湖南降水资料,统计分析了登陆影响湖南的热带气旋时空分布,及造成的强降水特征.结果表明:57年中登陆影响湖南的热带气旋共161个,平均每年3个,主要出现在7～9月,影响热带气旋主要为台风或以上强度;影响湖南的热带气旋登陆地点以广东、福建最多,强度达强热带风暴或以上的热带气旋可造成极端暴雨降水,时间主要出现在8月.20世纪90年代以后暴雨强度呈加大趋势.     

Urban Impact on Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Precipitation: A Numerical Study of Typhoon Rumbia (2018)

Coastal urban areas are prone to serious disasters caused by landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs). Despite the crucial role of urban forcing in precipitation, how fine-scale urban features impact landfalling TC precipitation remains poorly understood. In this study, high-resolution ensemble simulations of Typhoon Rumbia(2018), which crossed the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, were conducted to analyze the potential urban impact on TC precipitation. Results show that the inner-core rainfal...     

登陆热带气旋降水预报研究回顾与展望

重点围绕登陆热带气旋（LTC）降水预报研究进行了回顾和总结,指出针对LTC降水有三类预报技术：动力模式、统计方法和动力-统计结合的预报方法。以数值天气预报（NWP）模式为代表的预报技术对LTC降水的预报能力仍然非常有限。改进NWP模式预报误差的途径主要有两条：一是发展NWP模式;二是发展动力-统计结合的方法。分析表明,动力-统计相似预报是一项很有潜力的技术;针对现有研究中的不足,开展LTC降水动力-统计相似预报研究,探索减小数值模式LTC降水预报误差的有效方法,将是一个充满希望的研究领域和方向。