云南地震动反应谱特性V_(max)/a_(max)值的研究

本文通过对发生在云南省的澜沧—耿马等几次地震记录的分析,提出了适合云南实际的地震动反应谱特性Ｖｍａｘ／ａｍａｘ值的ｗｅｉｂｕｌ模型,并求出了平均值和标准差,对于样本不足的给出了ｍ,η的置信区间,可为我国、特别是云南省的工程建设提供基础依据。     

中国主要地震活动区的地震间隙分布

结合地震间隙和强度变化分析了本世纪全国及国内主要地震活动区中强以 上地震活动特征,间隙大多在５．５ａ内,一半以上在２．５ａ内,最大间隙近１８ａ.５０年代 以后全国７．５级以上和７．０级以上、青藏块体７．０级以上地震活动及近２０ａ来台湾 ７．０级以上、华北和四川６．０级以上地震活动明显减弱,２０－３０年代青藏块体北部大 震的活动影响一直持续到７０年代,５．０－６．５级地震活动自８０年代明显增强,云南 ７０年代后形成的地震活动高潮实际上从６０年代就开始增强,华北和台湾地区表现 了强震前活动增强而甘宁青地区表现了强震后活动衰减的典型过程,制约我国地震 活动的大三角应力场、东部应力场和全球应力场具有长期稳定的２０ａ周期性,后面的 应力场依次滞后于前一个应力场约１／４个周期,前两者起主导作用,青藏块体东北缘 的地震活动除受东部应力场的影响外,还与青藏块体地壳物质东流的重要作用有关, 今后几年要特别注意四川和甘宁青６．０级以上、甘肃地区５．０级以上及新疆７．０级 以上地震。     

Intermittency of wind wave group breaking

Knowledge on intermittency of wave breaking is so far limited to a few summary statistics, while the probability distribution of time interval between breaking events can provide a full view of intermittency. Based on a series of experiments on wind wave breaking, such probability distributions are investigated. Breaking waves within a wave group were taken as a single breaking event according to recent studies. Interval between successive wave groups with breaker is the focus of this paper. For intervals in our experiments with different fetch and wind conditions, their distributions are all skewed and weighted on small intervals. Results of Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests on time series of these intervals indicate that they all follow gamma distribution, and some are even exponential type. Average breaking-group-interval decreases with friction velocity and significant steepness until the wind is strong enough;most of them are more than 10 times the dominant wave period. Group breaking probability proposed by Babanin recently and the average number of breaking waves in wave groups are also discussed, and they are seemingly more reasonable and sensitive than traditional breaking probability defined in terms of single wave.     

海洋磁力测量测线布设间距的选取

基于海洋磁力测量特点,在对布设测线方向研究的基础上,对海洋磁力测量中布设测线间距的选取进行了研究,提出了选取布设测线间距的原则,给出了几种选取测线间距的方法,并对其可行性进行了验证。     

改进的灰色模型在建筑物沉降预测中的应用

介绍灰色非等间距GM(1,1)模型的建立及其精度评定方法,着重探讨模型精度的主要影响因素,并从模型背景值的构造以及初值选取两个方面对灰色非等间距GM(1,1)模型进行改进,结合高层建筑沉降监测实例进行预测结果分析,结果表明,改进后的灰色模型具有较高的精度,在沉降预测中具有较高的应用价值。     

Geological characteristics and co-exploration and co-production methods of Upper Permian Longtan coal measure gas in Yangmeishu Syncline,Western Guizhou Province,China

Coal measure gas (also known as coal-bearing unconventional gas) is the key field and development direction of unconventional natural gas in recent years. The exploration and evaluation of coal measure gas (coalbed methane, coal shale gas and coal measure tight sandstone gas) from single coalbed methane has greatly expanded the field and space of resource evaluation, which is of positive significance for realizing the comprehensive utilization of coal resources, maximizing the benefits and promoting the innovation of oil and gas geological theory and technological advances in exploration and development. For the first time, in Yangmeishu Syncline of Western Guizhou Province, the public welfare coalbed methane geological survey project of China Geological Survey has been carried out a systematic geological survey of coal measure gas for the Upper Permian Longtan Formation, identified the geological conditions of coal measure gas and found high quality resources. The total geological resource quantity of coalbed methane and coal shale gas is 51.423×10⁹ m³ and the geological resource abundance is up to 566×10⁹ m³/km². In this area, the coal measures are characterized by many layers of minable coal seams, large total thickness, thin to the medium thickness of the single layer, good gas-bearing property of coal seams and coal measure mudstone and sandstone, good reservoir physical property and high-pressure coefficient. According to the principle of combination of high quality and similarity of key parameters of the coal reservoir, the most favorable intervals are No.5⁻², No.7 and No.13⁻² coal seam in Well YMC1. And the pilot tests are carried out on coal seams and roof silty mudstone, such as staged perforation, increasing hydraulic fracturing scale and “three gas” production. The high and stable industrial gas flow with a daily gas output of more than 4000 m³ has been obtained, which has realized the breakthrough in the geological survey of coal measure gas in Southwest China. Based on the above investigation results, the geological characteristics of coal measure gas in the multi-thin-coal-seam-developed area and the co-exploration and co-production methods, such as the optimization method of favorable intervals, the high-efficiency fracturing and reservoir reconstruction method of coal measures, and the “three gas” drainage and production system, are systematically summarized in this paper. It will provide a reference for efficient exploration and development of coal measure gas in similar geological conditions in China.     

抵偿投影最大适用范围及最大投影变形最小参数确定方法

为了满足相关规范对测区最大投影变形的控制要求,需要采取措施抑制测区投影变形,无论是抵偿投影面高斯正形投影或者任意带高斯正形投影,或者以上两种方式的结合,都有必要确定该投影方法满足最大投影变形限差条件的最大可适用范围,还有必要根据项目确定的范围对投影最大投影变形进行判定,并进行投影参数的科学选择.研究了满足最大投影变形限...     

Quantifying uncertainty in extreme values of design parameters with resampling techniques

In this paper, a methodology for the selection of statistical models for describing the extreme wave heights on the basis of resampling techniques is presented. Two such techniques are evaluated: the jackknife and the bootstrap. The methods are applied to two high-quality datasets of wave measurements in the Mediterranean and one from the East Coast of the USA. The robustness of the estimates of the extreme values of wave heights at return periods important for coastal engineering design is explored further. In particular, we demonstrate how an ensemble error norm can be used to select the most appropriate extreme probability model from a choice of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs). This error norm is based on the mean error norm of the optimised CDF for each resampled (replicate) data series. The resampling approach is also used to present confidence intervals of the CDF parameters. We provide a brief discussion of the sensitivity of these parameters and the suitability of each model in terms of uncertainty with resampling techniques. The advantages of resampling are outlined, and the superiority of the bootstrap over the jackknife in quantifying the uncertainty of extreme quantiles is demonstrated for these records.     

北海市沿岸风暴潮特征研究

根据1965—2009年间影响北海市沿岸的热带气旋资料和风暴增水资料,进行统计分析北海市沿岸的风暴潮特征。结果表明:北海市沿岸平均每年发生风暴增水2—3次,其中较大以上强度的风暴增水每年0.87次,严重以上强度的风暴增水每3年有一次;北海市沿岸每年4—11月均有可能发生风暴增水,且集中在7—10月,尤以9月最多。影响北海市沿岸的热带气旋主要以西北行路径为主,且多是穿过雷州半岛或海南岛后在越南沿海登陆,此种情况下,风暴增水曲线表现为周期性波动。另外,本文还采用Pearson-Ⅲ分布和Gumbel分布来估算风暴增水频度,得出北海市沿岸不同重现期的高潮位值。     

RUPTURE CHARACTERISTICS OF LATE QUATERNARY STRONG EARTHQUAKES ON THE WESTERN BRANCH OF THE XIAOJIANG FAULT ZONE

The Xiaojiang fault zone is located in the southeastern margin of the Tibetan plateau, the boundary faults of Sichuan-Yunnan block and South China block. The largest historical earthquake in Yunnan Province, with magnitude 8 occurred on the western branch of the Xiaojiang Fault in Songming County, 1833. Research on the Late Quaternary surface deformation and strong earthquake rupture behavior on the Xiaojiang Fault is crucial to understand the future seismic risk of the fault zone and the Sichuan-Yunnan region, even crucial for the study of tectonic evolution of the southeastern margin of Tibetan plateau. We have some new understanding through several large trenches excavated on the western branch of the Xiaojiang fault zone. We excavated a large trench at Caohaizi and identified six paleoseismic events, named U through Z from the oldest to the youngest. Ages of these six events are constrained at 40000-36300BC, 35400-24800BC, 9500BC-500AD, 390-720AD, 1120-1620AD and 1750AD-present. The Ganhaizi trench revealed three paleoearthquakes, named GHZ-E1 to GHZ-E3 from the oldest to the youngest. Ages of the three events are constrained at 3300BC-400AD, 770-1120AD, 1460AD-present. The Dafendi trench revealed three paleoearthquakes, named E1 to E3 from the oldest to the youngest, and their ages are constrained at 22300-19600BC, 18820-18400BC, and 18250-present. Caohaizi and Ganhaizi trenches are excavated on the western branch of the Xiaojiang Fault, the distance between them is 400m. We constrained four late Holocene paleoearthquakes with progressive constraining method, which are respectively at 500-720AD, 770-1120AD, AD 1460-1620 and 1833AD, with an average recurrence interval of 370~440a. Large earthquake recurrence in the late Holocene is less than the recurrence interval of~900a as proposed in the previous studies. Thus, the seismic hazard on the Xiaojiang Fault should be reevaluated. We excavated a large trench at Dafendi, about 30km away south of Caohaizi trench. Combining with previous paleoseismological research, it is found that the western branch of Xiaojiang Fault was likely to be dominated by segmented rupturing in the period from late of Late Pleistocene to early and middle Holocene, while it was characterized by large earthquakes clustering and whole segment rupturing since late Holocene.