Flooding in Australia: A Review of Events in 1998

The diverse causes and styles, the frequency and the losses arising from five Australian floods in 1998 are reviewed in this paper. Though mostly rare, the floods were not as unprecedented as commonly supposed. Damages to agriculture and infrastructure were significant, and probably over 10,000 houses experienced over-floor inundation. Key lessons include: the need for detailed damage assessments as a basis for damage reduction, the need to maximise safety and minimise property exposure at caravan parks, and the need for floodplain management strategies that better address both existing and future risk. A greater recognition of the distinctive nature of each flood event is required for the improvement of official and unofficial flood warning systems. Educators need to address the dynamic nature of flood awareness, as it declines over time, and as it varies from one individual to the next. Insurers need to adopt incentives for risk-reducing behaviour, so that efforts to mitigate damages are encouraged, not undermined.     

保险与地震系统在开展震灾保险中的合作模式

震灾保险新制式是地震科技导入保险营运过程以强化其科学性，规范性的一次创新尝试；制式的推行同时将给保险与系统的联手协作主各自相关业务的拓展带来新的概念和新的该文论述了这种合作的方式和特点，并向人们展示了合作必将获妈巨大社会效益的良好前景。     

基于MODIS GPP产品的冬小麦保险费率厘定方法研究

农作物保险是国内外减少灾害造成的种植户经济损失,保障农民基本生产收入的重要手段。国内传统的农作物保险费率是基于行政单元的统计数据厘定的,忽略了行政单元内部灾害的空间风险差异,因此如何获得行政单元内部农户级农作物纯保险费率,成为精细化农作物保险的关键问题。本文针对农户级的冬小麦纯保险费率,以河南省周口市为实验区,利用2005—2015年MODIS MOD17 A2 GPP总初级生产力数据产品生成2005—2015年冬小麦生长季的GPP数据,同时利用Landsat5/7/8 TM/ETM/OLI数据计算2005—2015年公里级的冬小麦种植面积比。通过Bühlmann-Straub模型和经验费率法厘定得到2016年实验区基于格网单元的冬小麦纯保险费率。研究表明：遥感数据可以为农作物保险空间精细费率厘定提供数据保障,利用遥感数据可以得到公里级格网单元的冬小麦纯保险费率。将利用遥感数据得到的农作物纯保险费率用于农作物保险中,提高了农作物保险的空间精细水平,可以进行基于地块的空间差异化农户投保,有利于政府针对不同农户制定合理的农作物保险政策,保险公司合理的收取保费。     

实施地震保险的探索

以地震危险性分析为基础,结合因地震造成的各类建筑物的破坏情况,对在我国如何实行地震保险的方法和途径进行了探讨。     

地震保险中经济损失和赔付问题的研究

简单介绍了国内外地震保险业的发展和现状,以及基于地震危险性分析和结构易损性分析的经济损失评估方法;着重探讨了给定赔付政策下单体房屋结构震害损失赔付的概率密度函数,和保险业关心的多个单体集合赔付的整体方差问题;引入了美国使用的单体结构间损失的相关系数,并据此解释了地震保险中风险的高聚合性质. 为我国地震保险业中的赔付和费率厘定提供依据,为地震保险工作的实际运作和展开提供参考.      

我国城镇贫困化及其治理对策探析

随着改革的深入 ,90年代以来在下岗职工日益增多和失业率上升的同时 ,我国城镇贫困化正日益蔓延和加深。文章在归纳城镇贫困化现状特征的基础上 ,指出城镇贫困化的内在原因在于经济结构和产业结构的调整 ,社会保障制度的滞后及贫困者自身素质 ,进而提出治理贫困的有效途径。     

震灾保险素养水平对公共服务满意度的影响研究

从巨灾保险视角,运用层次分析法测度居民震灾保险素养水平,构建有序Probit模型分析居民震灾保险素养、公共服务感知对公共服务满意度的影响。研究结果表明:我国居民震灾保险素养水平较低,且差异较大。震灾保险素养与公共服务感知对公共服务满意度均有显著的正向影响,居民的家庭收入水平对公共服务的满意度表现出负向影响,但其程度不及震灾保险素养与公共服务感知。防震减灾部门应进一步拓宽公共服务渠道,增加服务种类及方式,注重提升服务质量,提高居民的震灾保险素养水平和公共服务感知能力。保险公司需要与防震减灾部门展开深度合作,开发适合不同收入层次人群的地震保险产品,加大地震保险知识普及力度,藉以提高居民的防震减灾公共服务满意度。     

Multilateral parametric climate risk insurance: a tool to facilitate agreement about deployment of solar geoengineering?

States will disagree about deployment of solar geoengineering, technologies that would reflect a small portion of incoming sunlight to reduce risks of climate change, and most disagreements will be grounded in conflicting interests. States that object to deployment will have many options to oppose it, so states favouring deployment will have a powerful incentive to meet their objections. Objections rooted in opposition to the anticipated unequal consequences of deployment may be met through compensation, yet climate policy is inhospitable to compensation via liability. We propose that multilateral parametric climate risk insurance might be a useful tool to facilitate agreement on solar geoengineering deployment. With parametric insurance, predetermined payouts are triggered when climate indices deviate from set ranges. We suggest that states favouring deployment could underwrite reduced-rate parametric climate insurance. This mechanism would be particularly suited to resolving disagreements based on divergent judgments about the outcomes of proposed implementation. This would be especially relevant in cases where disagreements are rooted in varying levels of trust in climate model predictions of solar geoengineering effectiveness and risks. Negotiations over the pricing and terms of a parametric risk pool would make divergent judgments explicit and quantitative. Reduced-rate insurance would provide a way for states that favour implementation to demonstrate their confidence in solar geoengineering by underwriting risk transfer and ensuring compensation without the need for attribution. This would offer a powerful incentive for states opposing implementation to moderate their opposition.

Key policy insights

• States favouring deployment of solar geoengineering will need to address other states’ objections—unilateralism is implausible in practice

• This might be partially achieved using parametric climate risk insurance based on objective indicators

• A sovereign risk pool offering reduced-rate parametric insurance underwritten by states backing deployment could facilitate cooperation on solar geoengineering deployment

• States favouring deployment would demonstrate their confidence in solar geoengineering by supporting the risk pool

• Opposing states would be insured against solar geoengineering risks and proposing states would be incentivized to guard against overconfidence

     

新型农村住宅合作抗震救灾保险机制初探

通过对目前农村住宅抗震救灾现状的分析,借鉴我国农村新型合作医疗的模式,提出了一种村民、集体和政府共同集资,共同承担住宅地震风险的新型合作抗震救灾保险机制。对农村住宅合作抗震救灾保险机制提出了初步设想,提出了确定农村住宅合作抗震救灾参保费需要考虑的因素,提出了农村住宅合作抗震救灾年缴纳费用的建议值。通过问卷调查的形式初步研究了农村住宅合作抗震救灾保险制度的可行性、保费的多少以及个人和政府的合理出资比例等问题。