地震多发区居民风险感知对巨灾保险需求影响研究

地震巨灾保险一直是我国地震灾害风险共担体系的重要组成部分。本文基于2023年1月26日四川泸定5.6级地震问卷调查数据,探索居民风险感知对巨灾保险需求的影响,以期改善地震巨灾保险具体推广路径。实证分析结果表明,存在地震经历、心理恐慌程度、地震保险认知这三种风险感知因子对地震巨灾保险需求产生正向影响。此外,附加政府补贴政策的巨灾保险产品,更容易得到居民的认可。因此,我国巨灾保险的推广,尤其是在地震多发区,要坚持长期普及和灾时宣传相结合的策略。在当前的地震保险推广过程中,仍然需要继续实行附加政府补贴的政策,将有利于我国巨灾保险的健康发展。     

中国城镇职工基本养老保险基金区域差异及影响机理

缩小地区差距,实现基本养老保险全国统筹,有利于增进人民福祉、促进社会公平以及提升人民的幸福感。基于2007-2016年中国31省（市、自治区）面板数据,运用泰尔指数、探索性空间数据分析及地理探测器等方法,研究中国城镇职工基本养老保险基金区域差异和影响机理。研究表明：① 城镇职工基本养老保险基金支出总体和带间泰尔指数稳步下降,带内泰尔指数逐年上升;② 城镇职工基本养老保险基金累计结余空间分布差异明显。高值区和次高值区主要分布在东部地区,次低和低水平主要分布在西部地区和东北地区。③ GDP、参保人数、制度赡养率等7因素对基本养老保险基金区域差异影响大。同时,各因子叠加后影响体现为非线性增加或双因子增强。为此,应坚持统筹区域社会经济协调的发展理念,夯实缴费基数,确保应保尽保,分步推进基本养老保险全国统筹。     

渭北苹果花期冻害气象指数保险设计

为科学设计渭北苹果花期冻害气象指数保险产品,提供气象指数保险技术参考。研究选取旬邑县作为陕西省渭北地区苹果代表县,利用1991—2020年气象、苹果花期物候、产量等数据,选取苹果花期冻害极端低温和过程累积危害指数作为备选气象指数,采用滑动平均〖CD*2〗灰色预测法分离苹果气象产量。通过气象指数与苹果减产率的相关分析,确定苹果花期冻害气象指数,构建苹果花期冻害气象指数与减产率之间的关系模型。利用苹果单产风险分布特点,选取6种分布模型利用参数分布法进行拟合,并根据Anderson Darling(A D)检验结果和概率密度函数图筛选最优分布。最后根据保险触发值,厘定不同赔付触发条件下的保险纯费率。结果表明：代表县苹果花期冻害过程累积危害气象指数Ts与减产率的相关性显著强于苹果花期冻害极端低温气象指数Tc;Ts与减产率之间存在正向线性关系模型;苹果单产风险分布符合柯西分布;当赔付触发条件对应2%、4%、6%、8%减产率时,旬邑县各乡镇苹果花期冻害气象指数保险产品纯费率区间为0.40%～1.84%。相较传统苹果农业保险产品,苹果花期冻害气象指数保险产品可实现差异化费率,有利于发挥气象指数保险优势。     

Maladaptive outcomes of climate insurance in agriculture

Agricultural insurance programs are currently being championed by international donors in many developing countries. They are acclaimed as promising instruments for coping with climate risk. However, research on their impacts has mainly focused on economic considerations. Studies on broader social and ecological consequences are sparse and have produced ambiguous and inconclusive results. We address this knowledge deficit by (a) advocating for a holistic view of social-ecological systems and vulnerability when considering insurance impacts; (b) offering a systematic overview highlighting the potential beneficial and adverse effects of ‘climate insurance’ in agriculture, particularly where programs target intensifying agricultural production; and (c) suggesting preliminary principles for avoiding maladaptive outcomes, including specific recommendations for designing appropriate impact studies and insurance programs. Our synopsis brings together scientific knowledge generated in both developing and developed countries, demonstrating that agricultural insurance programs shape land-use decisions and may generate serious economic, social, and ecological consequences. If insurance is to be an appropriate tool for mitigating the impacts of climate change, it needs to be carefully developed with specific local social-ecological contexts and existing risk coping strategies in mind. Otherwise, it is liable to create long-term maladaptive outcomes and undermine the ability of these systems to reduce vulnerability.     

THE EFFECT OF LOCATION ON THE ADOPTION OF HAZARD MITIGATION MEASURES

The adoption of hazard mitigation measures by those in vulnerable areas is the result of a complex process involving many variables. This study investigates the potential impact one variable, location, has on adoption. The findings suggest that adoption of measures that require little planning and are highly visible are related to location.     

Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Insurance Rates for Turkey

A probabilistic model is presented to obtain a realistic estimate of earthquake insurance rates for reinforced concrete buildings in Turkey. The model integrates information on seismic hazard and information on expected earthquake damage on engineering facilities in a systematic way, yielding to estimates of earthquake insurance premiums. In order to demonstrate the application of the proposed probabilistic method, earthquake insurance rates are computed for reinforced concrete buildings constructed in five cities located in different seismic zones of Turkey. The resulting rates are compared with the rates currently charged by the insurance companies. The earthquake insurance rates are observed to be sensitive to the assumptions on seismic hazard and damage probability matrices and to increase significantly with increasing violation of the code requirements.     

我国商业保险公司未经营地震保险之原因与对策

我国作为世界上地震灾害损失最重的国家之一，应有比较完备的防灾救灾措施，但至今仍主要靠政府救济，不仅使国家财政不堪重负，而且赔偿率也很低。可见，采取有效措施减少震害已迫在眉睫，商业地震保险将由此而应运而生。本文从我国地震灾情入手，深刻剖析了我国商业保险公司未经营地震保险的原因，并针对问题提出了解决措施。     

Using spatial analysis and Bayesian network to model the vulnerability and make insurance pricing of catastrophic risk

Vulnerability refers to the degree of an individual subject to the damage arising from a catastrophic disaster. It is affected by multiple indicators that include hazard intensity, environment, and individual characteristics. The traditional area aggregate approach does not differentiate the individuals exposed to the disaster. In this article, we propose a new solution of modeling vulnerability. Our strategy is to use spatial analysis and Bayesian network (BN) to model vulnerability and make insurance pricing in a spatially explicit manner. Spatial analysis is employed to preprocess the data, for example kernel density analysis (KDA) is employed to quantify the influence of geo-features on catastrophic risk and relate such influence to spatial distance. BN provides a consistent platform to integrate a variety of indicators including those extracted by spatial analysis techniques to model uncertainty of vulnerability. Our approach can differentiate attributes of different individuals at a finer scale, integrate quantitative indicators from multiple-sources, and evaluate the vulnerability even with missing data. In the pilot study case of seismic risk, our approach obtains a spatially located result of vulnerability and makes an insurance price at a finer scale for the insured buildings. The result obtained with our method is informative for decision-makers to make a spatially located planning of buildings and allocation of resources before, during, and after the disasters.     

汶川地震后我国再保险体系在巨灾风险管理中的定位设想

汶川地震表明,我国再保险体系在巨灾保险补偿中发挥的作用十分有限,这激发我们思考这样的问题:应怎样建立有效的巨灾风险分散机制来支撑和促进再保险体系的发展。为此,提出这样的研究设想,从汶川地震为出发点,结合我国巨灾保险的实践经验,整合保险及相关行业的技术优势,从管理制度、技术和风险管理三个层面深入研究我国再保险体系在巨灾风险管理中的作用,以期得出新的建议或改善措施。(1)制度层面:对比国外和我国在地震、洪水、干旱、台风等巨灾再保险管理方面的法律规定,结合政治制度的差别,总结出具有中国特色的巨灾风险管理体系的政策依据。(2)技术层面:以地震风险为突破口,兼顾洪水、干旱、台风风险,探讨如何建立拥有自主知识产权的巨灾风险分析模型及数据库。(3)管理层面:分析巨灾保险在巨灾条件下失灵的深层次原因,论证再保险体系在巨灾风险分散机制中的重要作用,提出我国巨灾风险管理体系的基本框架。     

建筑物地震损失风险与保险费用的确定方法

本文结合我国地震危险性和建筑物抗震设防标准提出了地震损失风险评估概率模型,并给出了建筑物地震保险金额和保险费率的计算方法。用该方法可以计算各类建筑物的保险费用,计算结果与国际地震保险业的经验数据较一致。同时,本文还利用GIS技术展示了与保险金额和保险费率的空间分布状态相关的属性数据,为保险当事人提供了实施地震保险的科学依据。