How much does an extreme rainfall event cost? Material damage and relationships between insurance,rainfall, land cover and urban flooding

This research aims to understand how insurance, rainfall, land cover and urban flooding are related and how these variables influenced the material damage in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA) during the 2000–2011 period. Correlation coefficients show strong relationships between built-up areas and claims (0.94) and payouts (0.88). Despite no significant relationships being found between rainfall and the amount of material damage per event, three likelihood levels of flooding were determined for hourly rainfall. Unlike the studied period, the number of claims and their spatial distribution during the 2008 extreme rainfall event were strongly dependent on rainfall. Flooding related to the old watercourses assumed greater importance during this extreme event, recovering a more natural/ancient hydrological behaviour. In the LMA, the greatest material damage was the result of high-magnitude/low-probability rainfall events. Lower magnitude events can trigger numerous claims in heavily built-up areas, but they are hardly capable of producing large material damage.     

面向地震巨灾保险的建筑特性快速提取方法

房屋建筑分类是抗震设计和地震风险分析的基础,是巨灾保险的纽带环节,也是结构易损性准确、完备分析的前驱保障,快速获取建筑特性参数非常关键。基于影像数据获取结构特性相比传统手段具有显著优势,然而其准确性具有一定挑战性,从影像数据得到实时的、较准确的结构特性成为地震保险数据获取技术的关注焦点。本文采用深度学习方法开展从影像数据中提取面向地震保险需求的建筑特性数据,构建基于深度学习方法的建筑高度识别模型和基于机器视觉的建筑高度识别方法,运用基于Xception神经网络深度学习和机器视觉的模型,对北京地区的建筑高度进行模型测试,该方法可为地震保险分析提供重要的基础数据支持。     

巨灾保险机制研究——新西兰、土耳其、美国加州、中国台湾、日本案例分析

分析总结了新西兰、土耳其、美国加州、中国台湾地区和日本等国家和地区地震保险制度的特点,依据分析提出:中国需要建立巨灾保险制度,政府要在其中承担主导性职责,同时,巨灾保险需要民营保险公司和政府的分工合作。     

SPATIAL VARIATION OF HILLSLOPE PROFILES IN THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU,KENTUCKY

Contemporary Metropolitan America. John S. Adams (ed.)

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Experiencing the Environment. Seymour Wapner, Saul B. Cohen and Bernard Kaplan (eds.).

Folk Housing in Middle Virginia. Henry Glassie.

Place and Placelessness. Edward Relph.

The Changing Face of Tibet: The Impact of Chinese Communist Ideology on the Landscape. Pradyumna P. Karan.

Imperial Russia in Frontier America. James R. Gibson.

Immigrants in the Ozarks: A Study in Ethnic Geography. Russel L. Gerlach.

Urban Social Segregation. Ceri Peach (ed.).

Urban Modelling: Algorithms, Calibrations, Predictions. Michael Batty.

Strategies for Human Settlements: Habitat and Environment. Gwen Bell (ed.).

Spatial Components of Manufacturing Change. Yehoshua S. Cohen and Brian J. L. Berry.

Income Distribution in Latin America. Alejandro Foxley (ed.).

The Netherlands. David Pinder.

Social Issues in Regional Policy and Regional Planning. Antoni Kuklinski (ed.).

Periodic Markets, Urbanization, and Regional Planning: A Case Study from Western Kenya. Robert A. Obudho and Peter P. Waller.

Atlas of Oregon. William G. Loy (director and cartographer), Stuart Allan, Clyde P. Patton and Robert D. Plank.

Papua New Guinea Resource Atlus. Edgar Ford (ed.) and John S. Feodoroff

Landmarks of Mapmaking: An Illustrated Survey of Maps and Mapmakers. Text by Charles Bricker and maps selected by R. V. Tooley.     

洪水保险债券的运作机制与发展思路

由于传统(再)保险,难以将洪灾风险进行有效的分散,因此,有必要寻求有效的金融工具将洪灾风险向资本市场转移。在建立洪水保险债券的概念框架基础上,阐述了与普通债券及传统再保险的区别。从经济学和精算学的角度对洪水保险债券进行分析,揭示了洪水保险债券定价机制。通过研究洪水保险债券的运作模式,分析了我国洪水保险债券的发行条件与发展思路,指出洪水保险债券为我国防洪减灾提供了可资借鉴的崭新方法与工具。     

高温热浪致死风险的人群和城市分异及保险费率厘定的研究

在全球变暖背景下,高温热浪事件在世界各地频繁发生且大大加剧了人群致死的风险。基于3个研究地区（南京、广州和重庆）1951—2015年的逐日气象数据和2007—2013年逐日死亡数据,首先设计了热浪强度指数来量化热浪特征;其次采用分布滞后非线性模型构建高温热浪灾害下人群的脆弱性模型;最后采用蒙特卡洛仿真方法模拟随机高温热浪事件,并在此基础上开展概率风险评估与高温热浪生命保险费率的厘定。研究发现：老年人的高温热浪死亡风险与对应的费率水平是年轻人的9~28倍;其中,高温热浪费率水平与社会经济发展水平呈反比,即经济发展水平较高的地区费率水平较低。该研究成果为指数生命/健康保险产品的研发,为政府采取综合性的风险管理措施以减少公众健康风险等提供了一定的借鉴和参考。     

试论山西地震灾害的经济补偿

简述了山西建立地震灾害经济补偿制度的必要性;分析了目前地震保险的问题;提出了建立地震灾害经济补偿机制的设想。     

Maladaptive outcomes of climate insurance in agriculture

Agricultural insurance programs are currently being championed by international donors in many developing countries. They are acclaimed as promising instruments for coping with climate risk. However, research on their impacts has mainly focused on economic considerations. Studies on broader social and ecological consequences are sparse and have produced ambiguous and inconclusive results. We address this knowledge deficit by (a) advocating for a holistic view of social-ecological systems and vulnerability when considering insurance impacts; (b) offering a systematic overview highlighting the potential beneficial and adverse effects of ‘climate insurance’ in agriculture, particularly where programs target intensifying agricultural production; and (c) suggesting preliminary principles for avoiding maladaptive outcomes, including specific recommendations for designing appropriate impact studies and insurance programs. Our synopsis brings together scientific knowledge generated in both developing and developed countries, demonstrating that agricultural insurance programs shape land-use decisions and may generate serious economic, social, and ecological consequences. If insurance is to be an appropriate tool for mitigating the impacts of climate change, it needs to be carefully developed with specific local social-ecological contexts and existing risk coping strategies in mind. Otherwise, it is liable to create long-term maladaptive outcomes and undermine the ability of these systems to reduce vulnerability.     

震灾保险新制式的技术思路及其科学论证

对作者１９９２年提出的、建立在新观念、新思维基础上的一种独特震灾保险制式的技术思路和运行机制作了概括评述和解析论证。该制式中ＣＲＰＩＥ烈度当量折合费率模式与ＤＩＡＭ机制（延时承保机制）的联袂运行，可以圆满解决国内外震灾保险所面临的主要科学难题     

Engineering models for catastrophe risk and their application to insurance

Internationally earthquake insurance, like all other insurance (fire, auto), adopted actuarial approach in the past, which is, based on historical loss experience to determine insurance rate. Due to the fact that earthquake is a rare event with severe consequence, irrational determination of premium rate and lack of understanding scale of potential loss led to many insurance companies insolvent after Northridge earthquake in 1994. Along with recent advances in earth science, computer science and engineering, computerized loss estimation methodologies based on first principles have been developed to the point that losses from destructive earthquakes can be quantified with reasonable accuracy using scientific modeling techniques. This paper intends to introduce how engineering models can assist to quantify earthquake risk and how insurance industry can use this information to manage their risk in the United States and abroad. Supported partially by: Institute of Engineering Mechanics, CSB