Seasonal Prediction of Summer Precipitation over East Africa Using NUIST-CFS1.0

East Africa is particularly vulnerable to precipitation variability, as the livelihood of much of the population depends on rainfed agriculture. Seasonal forecasts of the precipitation anomalies, when skillful, can therefore improve implementation of coping mechanisms with respect to food security and water management. This study assesses the performance of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System version 1.0(NUISTCFS1.0) on forecasting June–September(JJAS) seasonal precipitation anomalies over East Africa. The skill in predicting the JJAS mean precipitation initiated from 1 May for the period of 1982–2019 is evaluated using both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics on grid cell and over six distinct clusters. The results show that NUIST-CFS1.0 captures the spatial pattern of observed seasonal precipitation climatology, albeit with dry and wet biases in a few parts of the region. The model has positive skill across a majority of Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania, whereas it doesn’t exceed the skill of climatological forecasts in parts of Sudan and southeastern Ethiopia. Positive forecast skill is found over regions where the model shows better performance in reproducing teleconnections related to oceanic SST. The prediction performance of NUIST-CFS1.0 is found to be on a level that is potentially useful over a majority of East Africa.     

Evaluation of Surface Relative Humidity in China from the CRA-40 and Current Reanalyses

Recently, the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) released a new Global Atmospheric Reanalysis (CRA-40) dataset for the period 1979-2018. In this study, surface relative humidity (RH) from CRA-40 and other current reanalyses (e.g., CFSR, ERA5, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA-2) is comprehensively evaluated against homogenized observations over China. The results suggest that most reanalyses overestimate the observations by 15％-30％ (absolute difference) over the Tibetan Plateau but underestimate the observations by 5％-10％ over most of northern China. The CRA-40 performs relatively well in describing the long-term change and variance seen in the observed surface RH over China. Most of the reanalyses reproduce the observed surface RH climatology and interannual variations well, while few reanalyses can capture the observed long-term RH trends over China. Among these reanalyses, the CFSR does poorly in describing the interannual changes in the observed RH, especially in Southwest China. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis also suggests that the CRA-40 performs better than other reanalyses to capture the first two leading EOF modes revealed by the observations. The results of this study are expected to improve understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the current reanalysis products and thus facilitate their application.     

徽州传统聚落夏季户外热环境实测与分析

根据实地监测屏山、西递、卢村和西溪南4个徽州传统聚落在7、8月高温环境下的主要气象参数,运用数学模糊综合评价方法,以夏季气温最高日的气温、相对湿度和风速作为评价夏季舒适度的指标,对4个徽州传统聚落的气候舒适度进行了定量评估,并辅以THI(温湿指数)进行验证评价,结合徽州地区特有的人居环境,研究了徽州传统聚落宜居性的气候特点。结果表明:1)空气温度、相对湿度和风速单因子隶属度关系不能良好地评价夏季气候舒适度指数,结合每个传统聚落所处的区域环境、地形地貌和人为活动等因素,才能更为充分反映徽州地区宜居性的特点。2)徽州地区4个传统聚落舒适等级指数均在0.5以上,夏季整体气候舒适,屏山和西递舒适度条件最佳,卢村次之,西溪南的舒适度条件最差,与THI评价结果一致。3)水体对微气候改善具有重要的调节作用,4个聚落日均相对湿度值均在70%左右。     

一次长江流域梅雨降水中三种云量计算方案的对比研究

采用NCEP分析场,选取2010年梅雨期长江流域的一次降水过程,分别基于Slingo方案、NCAR方案和钱氏方案,利用相对湿度计算云量,并以LAPS(Local Analysis and Prediction System)系统输出的云量分析场作为观测值,分别在高层(400 h Pa)与低层(850 h Pa),从宏观比较与统计分析的角度,与计算结果进行云量大小与区域分布的对比分析。结果表明,三个云量计算方案对云量中心位置的把握均较为准确,但对云量值的计算存在大小不等的误差。NCAR方案计算结果和LAPS输出场最为吻合,能够体现出云量大值区,但区域一般偏大;Slingo方案相较NCAR方案来说略差,但也能较好地描述云带分布;此外,钱氏方案计算出的云量值始终偏小,但其能够较好地描述云带轮廓与云量的分布特征。综合对比结果,NCAR云量计算方案比其余两者更优,且在低层(850 h Pa)表现尤为明显。     

基于CRA空间检验技术的西南地区东部强降水EC模式预报误差分析

CRA(contiguous rain area)空间检验技术是将连续雨区作为目标进行检验。通过设定降水量阈值,识别、分离及平移降水目标,将预报偏差分解为落区、强度和形态误差,该方法可避免传统TS评分的双惩罚效应。利用CRA空间检验技术对2011—2014年5—9月西南地区东部EC细网格模式36 h预报时效119个降水目标的预报误差进行分析,并按照环流形势和影响系统对强降水个例进行分型,分为西南地区东部低涡切变型、西南地区东部-江淮切变型、南风型,分别对上述三类不同类型强降水个例的落区和强度误差进行了对比。得到如下结论:西南地区东部降水预报形态误差占比最大,为60%左右,其次是落区误差,为30%左右,强度误差最小,约为10%;落区平均偏西0.7°,经向偏差不明显;模式对于水平尺度较小的降水目标漏报可能性较大,而对于天气尺度降水目标模式预报面积偏大,总降水量偏大,雨强偏小;西南地区东部低涡切变型和西南地区东部-江淮切变型降水强度预报误差类似,模式预报雨区面积均偏大,降水尺度越大,偏大的概率越大,实况平均降水强度越强,模式预报强度越偏弱;南风型预报强降水面积和平均强度均偏弱,出现漏报的概率较大;而对于最大降水量,三种类型模式预报的最强降水均较实况偏弱;西南地区东部低涡切变型模式预报落区偏西,江淮至西南地区东部切变型模式预报落区偏西偏北,南风型模式预报落区偏西偏南。     

2016年6—8月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

对2016年6—8月T639、ECMWF及日本（文中简称JP）数值模式的中期预报产品进行了分析和检验。结果表明：3个模式对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变均具有较好的预报性能,其中ECMWF模式预报效果最好。对于副热带高压,ECMWF和T639模式均能较好地预报副热带高压移动趋势,但具体过程存在不同偏差,ECMWF模式偏差较小;3个模式中期时效均能报出四川盆地的持续高温过程,且对北方850 hPa温度的转折性变化趋势均有较好的预报能力,ECMWF和JP模式对南方地区温度变化的预报能力明显优于北方地区,T639模式对南方温度预报偏差较大,ECMWF模式综合预报效果最好。对台风妮妲,ECMWF模式预报与零场较为接近,T639模式误差较大。     

Protecting “First world” markets and “Third world” nature: The politics of illegal logging in Australia,the European Union and the United States

Global forest governance has recently seen the emergence of a timber legality regime. In an aim to regulate global timber trade flows, the US, the EU and Australia adopted laws prohibiting illegally harvested timber from entering their markets. While some view this as a milestone for environmental and social stewardship in the global forest sector, the effects of the regime remain contested.In order to better understand likely effects of the regime, we apply the Discursive Agency Approach to analyze discursive dynamics of policy making among the stakeholders involved in the creation of each law and their effects on governance design and implementation.Based on 120 interviews in the US, Australia, the EU and with global organizations/institutions, as well as 19 informal conversations, 300 documents, and participant observation data, our results show that legality is a powerful concept in forest governance. Drawing attention away from sustainability, it enables discursive divides between the global North and South as well as between wood producers and importers. These divides were crucial for the emergence of the legality regime. While some forest industry groups perceived the new laws as an opportunity, others saw them as a threat. In all three regions this led to coalitions between supportive industry factions and environmental groups. These coalitions were based on a complementarity of goals; environmentalists aimed to protect “Third World” forests while industry groups aimed to protect “First World” markets against growing competition from these former regions. Yet each coalition was composed differently and employed distinct – albeit related – discursive strategies in policy making. This affected the design of each law and its implementation. The shift from sustainability towards legality re-surfaces prominently in implementation. Stakeholder discussions range from coercive “threatening” to more learning-oriented “educating” approaches. We conclude by discussing the effects these discursive struggles in Australia, the EU and the US have on the global timber legality regime.     

2015年9—11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

对2015年9—11月T639、ECMWF及日本（文中简称JP）数值模式的中期预报产品进行了分析和检验。结果表明：3个模式对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能,其中ECMWF模式预报效果最好。ECMWF模式对副热带高压脊线位置预报较为准确,而T639模式对副热带高压西脊点的位置把握更好。3个模式对850 hPa温度的转折性变化趋势均有较好的预报能力,其中对南方地区温度变化的预报能力明显优于北方地区。此外,3个模式对1522号强台风彩虹中心位置和强度120 h预报均存在不同程度的偏差,特别是对台风彩虹发展初期的强度预报明显偏弱。T639和ECMWF模式对静稳天气形势均有较好的中期预报能力,但ECMWF模式对驱散雾 霾的冷空气预报与零场更加一致。     

三类强对流天气临近预报的模糊检验试验与对比

强对流天气具有尺度小、演变快的特点,为了满足强对流预报检验、评价的需求,本文引入了模糊检验方法,该方法通过在空间等属性上进行尺度变换处理,可获得预报在不同空间尺度上的评价信息。以中国气象局SWAN等短临预报业务系统提供的1 h回波外推预报为例,对三种类型强对流天气系统进行了模糊检验试验对比,并据此构造了三种理想强对流天气模型,进一步研究了各种模糊检验方法的特性,发现:相对于"点对点"的传统检验方法,模糊检验能够在不同尺度和评价策略上给出有关预报的更多信息,给予预报更加全面和客观的评价;针对不同的评价策略,同一个预报的最优尺度是有差异的;不同的模糊检验方法各有特点,适用范围也有差异;相对于传统检验方法,模糊检验方法的应用范围更广,尤其是当预报偏差达到一定程度时,多种模糊检验方法仍然能够给出有参考意义的评分。综合来看,对于高阈值、小尺度特征的强对流事件,低判别标准的最小比例法、模糊逻辑法和多事件列联表等检验方法更有应用价值。     

两次高压电线积冰过程气象成因分析

对2008年2月25—26日和2009年1月5—9日湖北省500 kV高压输电线路张恩1回线307号杆塔采集到的两次积冰过程进行分析,结果表明:两次积冰过程具有相似的环流形势即500 hPa中高纬为两槽一脊。低纬度地区有短波槽活动,700 hPa低空急流明显,地面处于冷锋前。低空急流、地面冷锋均有利于冰冻雨雪天气发生,且积冰过程中均有良好的温湿条件,并都伴有降水发生,这些条件都为积冰形成提供了良好的动力及热力条件。而2008年积冰过程大气温度垂直结构存在暖层,是造成两次过程形成机制不同的原因之一。