Evaluation of Surface Relative Humidity in China from the CRA-40 and Current Reanalyses

Recently, the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) released a new Global Atmospheric Reanalysis (CRA-40) dataset for the period 1979-2018. In this study, surface relative humidity (RH) from CRA-40 and other current reanalyses (e.g., CFSR, ERA5, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA-2) is comprehensively evaluated against homogenized observations over China. The results suggest that most reanalyses overestimate the observations by 15％-30％ (absolute difference) over the Tibetan Plateau but underestimate the observations by 5％-10％ over most of northern China. The CRA-40 performs relatively well in describing the long-term change and variance seen in the observed surface RH over China. Most of the reanalyses reproduce the observed surface RH climatology and interannual variations well, while few reanalyses can capture the observed long-term RH trends over China. Among these reanalyses, the CFSR does poorly in describing the interannual changes in the observed RH, especially in Southwest China. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis also suggests that the CRA-40 performs better than other reanalyses to capture the first two leading EOF modes revealed by the observations. The results of this study are expected to improve understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the current reanalysis products and thus facilitate their application.     

Seasonal Prediction of Summer Precipitation over East Africa Using NUIST-CFS1.0

East Africa is particularly vulnerable to precipitation variability, as the livelihood of much of the population depends on rainfed agriculture. Seasonal forecasts of the precipitation anomalies, when skillful, can therefore improve implementation of coping mechanisms with respect to food security and water management. This study assesses the performance of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System version 1.0(NUISTCFS1.0) on forecasting June–September(JJAS) seasonal precipitation anomalies over East Africa. The skill in predicting the JJAS mean precipitation initiated from 1 May for the period of 1982–2019 is evaluated using both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics on grid cell and over six distinct clusters. The results show that NUIST-CFS1.0 captures the spatial pattern of observed seasonal precipitation climatology, albeit with dry and wet biases in a few parts of the region. The model has positive skill across a majority of Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania, whereas it doesn’t exceed the skill of climatological forecasts in parts of Sudan and southeastern Ethiopia. Positive forecast skill is found over regions where the model shows better performance in reproducing teleconnections related to oceanic SST. The prediction performance of NUIST-CFS1.0 is found to be on a level that is potentially useful over a majority of East Africa.     

The variable impact of ENSO events on regional dengue/DHF in Indonesia

Although studies have demonstrated significant associations between ENSO events and dengue fever, few have explored regional impacts on dengue fever of separate events. This study explores the impacts of two ENSO events on regional patterns of dengue/ dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) incidence in Indonesia. Data consist of monthly cases of dengue/DHF from 1992 to 2001 for each of Indonesia's 27 provinces, and monthly figures for rainfall, rainfall anomalies, temperature, relative humidity and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We conducted Pearson correlation analyses for each independent variable against dengue/DHF incidence, using a direct month‐by‐month correlation and applying a lag of between one and six months to each variable with respect to dengue/DHF incidence. Based on the SOI value, we identified two ENSO events between 1992 and 2001. To explore each event, we created two dummy variables and in regression analyses for eight provinces. The variance of between 12.9 per cent and 24.5 per cent in provincial dengue/DHF incidence is explained by two or three climate variables in each of the provinces (p < 0.01 to 0.1). During the 1997/98 event, the explained variance increased by between 7 per cent and 15 per cent in provinces whose climate regimes were most affected by this event. This study demonstrates that indicators of ENSO such as the SOI may assist in the forecast of potential dengue/DHF incidence and distribution in Indonesia.     

中国地面均一化相对湿度月值格点数据集的建立

基于1951—2014年2400余个中国国家级地面气象站均一化相对湿度资料,采用薄盘样条法,进行空间内插,得到了中国地面均一化相对湿度月值0.5°×0.5°格点数据集(CR数据集)。数据集的质量评估结果表明:冬季插值误差相对夏季偏高。冬、春、夏、秋季分析值与站点实测值的插值偏差空间区域特征不显著,平均偏差分别为0.002%/月、0.013%/月、0.008%/月和0.007%/月。冬、春、夏、秋季平均相对误差分别为0.431%/月、0.439%/月、0.286%/月和0.382%/月。分析值与站点实测值间的平均相关系数达0.89。整体来看,插值后的格点化相对湿度资料能够比较准确、细致地描述我国年平均相对湿度场的东南湿、西北干的主要空间特征。能够较好地展现长江以南地区、黄河以南长江以北地区、西北地区、天山南北麓、塔里木盆地等大地形的相对湿度变化特征。由于青藏高原台站稀少,格点数据集对该地区空气相对湿度特征的刻画是否合理很难给出定性、定量的判断。通过对CR数据集进行长时间序列气候变化趋势分析,表明60年来全国平均相对湿度呈减小趋势。     

探空资料云检测及其统计研究

基于已知的云垂直结构判断的方法,将相对湿度阈值法与温度露点法相结合,并加以改进,得到更加科学有效的云垂直结构判断方法。利用南京地区探空站的探空资料数据,分析得到了该地区的云垂直结构参数,并对全年云垂直结构特征进行了统计分析。经过统计分析发现:这种改进的相对湿度阈值法是科学有效的;南京地区夏秋季节有云的概率大,多层云的状况较多;春冬季节有云的概率相对较小,单层云的状况较多;云层厚度呈现出"夏厚冬薄"、中低云厚而高云薄的规律。     

浙江平原时序InSAR地面沉降监测

针对浙江省地面沉降监测需求,研究利用时序InSAR技术进行浙江省平原区地面沉降监测的技术流程。以上虞区块为例,反演得到上虞地区2013-2014年度地面沉降信息;结合同期外业水准测量数据,在传统点-点、点-面验证基础上,提出点-线验证方式,将几种分析评价方法进行了对比,对InSAR地面沉降监测精度进行评价分析;最后结合外业实地调查的情况,证明了InSAR技术监测大范围地面沉降分布状况和发现区域沉降中心的有效性和精确性。     

暴雨期间GNSS遥感气象要素的时序变化

针对暴雨短临预报准确率不高的问题,该文结合香港地区的暴雨实例,分析暴雨发生期间天气尺度特征和GNSS气象要素的时序变化特点及其各要素之间的相关性。研究结果表明:强烈的西南气流带来丰富水汽,高空强烈的辐散抽吸引起低层气压降低和对流运动的发展,配合中层低槽过境和低层冷空气南下,为暴雨发生提供条件;天顶对流层延迟变化的主要贡献来自大气水汽含量,可以用天顶对流层延迟替代大气水汽含量分析大气中的水汽累计及变化情况;暴雨发生前,气温较高,大气水汽含量和相对湿度时序增长快速,增长强度及其维持高水平状态的时长与后续雨量有较好的对应关系;大气水汽含量和相对湿度时序的上升分别反映了降水之前的充足水汽供应和水汽正在转向于饱和状态。     

洪湖湿地大气调节价值评价研究

以洪湖湿地为研究对象,基于现有研究资料对其大气调节服务价值进行了定量评价。结果表明:洪湖湿地大气调节服务总价值为254.52×106元/a,是过去研究结果的11.6倍,其中湿地植物净固定的温室气体价值(包含甲烷折算的排放价值)为58.50×106元/a,表现为较强的碳汇;湿地释放氧气价值为176.51×106元/a,增湿调温价值为19.51×106元/a。洪湖湿地植被净固定温室气体价值、释放氧气价值和增湿调温价值分别占大气调节服务总价值的22.98%、69.35%和7.7%。     

反射地震成像技术在新疆喀拉通克铜镍矿区的应用

新疆喀拉通克铜镍矿自1989年建成投产,已生产27年,属中度危机矿山。为探测该矿山深部资源,需要提供地质构造和隐伏含矿岩体的信息,为此开展了地震数值模拟和高精度反射地震研究。地震正演模拟结果为该区金属矿地震数据采集观测系统设计和实际地震资料的解释提供了依据,地震勘探获得的反射地震剖面分辨率高,成像清晰,能够对测区深部地质结构和构造及隐伏岩体进行可靠解释。地震剖面的地质解释得到了钻探验证,证实了深部含矿岩体的存在。该地震探测结果为在矿山寻找深部隐伏矿指提供了线索。     

地理国情普查成果在基础测绘成果质检中的应用

第一次全国地理国情普查成果是在参考了多个部委的专题资料的基础上经过分析加工得到的权威成果,无论地表覆盖数据,还是国情要素数据都经过了外业核查,遥感解译样本以及外业核查照片都是外业人员实地拍摄而来,确保了数据的真实、准确。基础测绘成果是为国民经济和社会发展以及为国家各个部门和各项专业测绘提供的基础地理信息成果,基础测绘成果的质量检查要求客观、真实,本文提出了一种将地理国情成果资料用于基础测绘成果质检的方法,通过实际检查案例发现该方法可以提高质检工作的效率和准确性。