2000年来中国人口地理演变的Agent模拟分析

以基于自主体模拟为建模工具。建立了包含气候、农业、社会影响因素的中国2000年来人口地理演变模型。基于该模型对南北人口格局的转变、东西人口格局（即胡焕庸线）的形成以及2000年来全局人口分布演化的动力机制做了分析。研究结果表明：在不考虑气候变化、农业生产潜力波动以及社会因素影响的情景下,中国各省人口模拟值与实际值的相关系数达到0．9733,省区间初始农业生产潜力差异决定了人口的基本分布状态,是人口分布特征的内在因素．对人口地理演化具有深远的影响：中国人口分布南重北轻的人口分布格局发生在910年代左右．以安史之乱导致的战祸和动荡的社会条件为主要演化动力：胡焕庸线中国人口东西部分布格局形成于1235-1255年代左右,以1230-1260A．D．的气候突变为该人口分布特征线形成的主要动力：气候变化对2000来历史人口分布的全局演化过程中起了主导驱动作用,在单影响要素的情景中,气候变化对全局人口分布形成的贡献率最大,为0．9869,进一步,气候变化对人口地理演化的影响以1230-1260A．D．的气候突变为转折点表现为阶段性差异。     

聚类统计检验在人工增雨效果检验中的应用

将聚类统计检验分析引入原有的基于聚类的浮动区对比历史回归人工增雨效果检验方法中,减小站点分区的盲目性,聚为同一类的站点相似度更大,使聚类分析具有统计学意义。并把这种方法和未引入聚类检验的方法进行比较,通过对河南4月10次作业的效果评估表明,引入聚类检验提高了效果评估的功效。     

南疆地区的环境与地方病及其防治对策

南疆地区的主要地方病有地甲病，克汀病，地氟病等，产生上述疾病的病因主要地下水，地表水的碘含量偏低或偏高和水含氟量超标，这些微量元素丰度偏离了人体生存标准，导致人体产生病变所致，为了保障未成年人的正常发育和广大农牧民的身体健康，本文提出了首先要改水防治，同时配合药物治疗的防治对策。     

钙基液态水硬性加固剂用于潮湿土遗址的加固保护

通过对钙基液态水硬性加固剂的研制,对潮湿环境土遗址的加固保护进行了探索性研究。X射线衍射（XRD）和扫描电镜（SEM）分析结果表明,已成功制出了潮湿土样水硬性加固所需的纳米材料。同时,研究发现,氢氧化钙在650 ℃下用马弗炉煅烧1.5 h后,可得到直径约50 nm、长度约200 nm的针状二次生石灰;这种二次生石灰经水消化后,会成为粒径在200～300 nm左右、大小十分均匀的扁平椭圆状纳米氢氧化钙颗粒;氧化钙在密封陈化一段时间后,也可使氢氧化钙的粒径达到纳米级。土样加固试验的结果显示,纳米石灰的乙醇分散液的渗透性优于分析纯氢氧化钙,钙基水硬性加固剂对潮湿土样的加固效果较为明显,有望成为一种适合于潮湿环境土遗址加固的新型材料。     

Response of Atmospheric Energy to Historical Climate Change in CMIP5

Three forms of atmospheric energy, i.e., internal, potential, and latent, are analyzed based on the historical simulations of 32 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) models and two reanalysis datasets(NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40). The spatial pattern of climatological mean atmospheric energy is well reproduced by all CMIP5 models. The variation of globally averaged atmospheric energy is similar to that of surface air temperature(SAT) for most models. The atmospheric energy from both simulation and reanalysis decreases following the volcanic eruption in low-latitude zones. Generally, the climatological mean of simulated atmospheric energy from most models is close to that obtained from NCEP/NCAR, while the simulated atmospheric energy trend is close to that obtained from ERA-40. Under a certain variation of SAT, the simulated global latent energy has the largest increase ratio, and the increase ratio of potential energy is the smallest.     

Roe Deer Antlers as a Historical Bioindicator of Lead Pollution in the Šalek Valley, Slovenia

Antlers of different deer species are of particular importance for assessing temporal and/or spatial variations in environmental pollution with bone-seeking pollutants, such as Pb. Since antlers have a well-defined annual growth cycle, they accumulate Pb during a seasonally fixed time span, which provides natural standardisation of samples. Moreover, they are kept as trophies in well-dated collections enabling their use in historical studies. Considering these benefits, Pb levels were determined (by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry after the wet digestion of samples) in 116 antlers of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus L.), shot in the period 1961–2002 in the vicinity of the largest Slovene thermal power plant of otanj (TPP). Irrespective of the year of antler growth and the age of the animal analysed (no age-dependent influences were revealed), Pb levels ranged from 0.20 to 7.28 mg kg^–1 (mean: 1.32 ± 0.19 mg kg^–1), with the highest contents in the oldest and the lowest contents in the most recent samples. Since the mid-1960s, lead pollution has continuously decreased in the study area; three very evident drops (after 1975, 1985 and 1995, respectively) indicate the combined effect of three different remediation measures as follows: construction of a remote heating system in the seventies; introduction of unleaded petrol in the late-1980s, and construction of clean-up devices at the TPP in the late-1990s. The high positive correlation between the annual emissions from the TPP and the mean yearly Pb levels in antlers showed that roe deer antlers may be an useful tool for assessing temporal trends of ambient Pb pollution.     

A Historical Record of Coastal Floods in Britain: Frequencies and Associated Storm Tracks

This paper examines flood frequencies in three coastal sectors of Britain and analyses the associated storm tracks and their principal pathways. The results indicate that the east coast of Britain has suffered most floods over the last 200 years. The frequencies of flood incidents in the south and southwest coast of Britain have increased, particularly during the 20th century, whereas on the west coast flood frequencies have declined. Three distinctive pathways of storm track are identified, related to flood incidents in each coastal sector. A southern pathway in a corridor along the 55° N parallel is associated with flood incidents recorded on the south and southwest coast, whilst storms that are associated with floods on the west coast concentrate along the 60° N parallel. The relationship between the frequencies of floods and climatic variations needs to be explored further. However, the development of coastal settlements has certainly increased vulnerability, and hence the risk of flood disasters.     

国外地浸砂岩型铀矿地质发展现状与展望

本文首先以地浸砂岩型铀矿为重点，分4个阶段概要回顾了世界铀矿勘查和科研工作发展的历史，总结了基本的历史经验。其次，全面阐述了当前国外地浸砂岩型铀矿地质发展的现状，对砂岩型铀矿在世界铀矿在世界铀资源中的重要战略地位、矿床分类、时空展布特点和规律及地浸砂岩型铀矿的成矿理论和找矿技术方法的发展现状进行全面剖析，重点从构造条件、古气候条件、水文地质条件、岩相古地理和岩性条件及铀源条件等5个方面对地浸砂岩型铀矿的成矿条件进行了深入分析，对3类表生后生渗入型砂岩型铀矿的评价准则进行了概括性总结。以美国和中亚两个砂岩型铀矿主产区为代表，概述了国外地浸砂岩型铀矿勘查技术方法的发展现状。最后，在展望世界铀资源供需发展趋势的前提下，明确指出我国铀矿地质战线所面临的严峻挑战，有针对性地论述了我们应采取4个方面的战略对策。     

长白山天池火山公元1014-1019年大喷发的历史记录

长白山火山是世界著名的火山之一，是我国规模最大、最具有潜在喷发危险的一座近代活动火山。目前，国内外许多火山学者为了研究长白山火山最近一次大喷发年代问题，做了大量工作，并取得了一些年代资料，但一直未取得有关这次大喷发历史记载的证实。笔者等通过再次收集和查阅了大量文史古籍资料，通过整理、筛选、考证、对比和分析处理，首次发现了长白山（白头山）火山，于公元1014～1019年间一次大喷发的历史记载。这对于研究长白山火山喷发历史具有重要的意义。     

湖泊沉积研究的历史进展与展望

回顾了国际和国内湖泊沉积研究历史,论述了国际古湖泊学研究的两大方向以及主要研究内容,对中国20世纪50年代以来的湖泊沉积研究进行了综述.针对目前湖泊沉积研究领域的薄弱环节,提出加强湖泊沉积环境指标的基础理论研究,提高时间分辨率,关注人类活动对湖泊环境的影响,开展湖泊沉积界面过程与机理研究,以及进一步加强区域和全球对比等建议与展望.