Storm Surge Hazard in Canada

Storm surges occur frequently in Canada mainlydue to extra-tropical cyclones (ETC'S) also referred to as winter storms. The hurricanes from the Gulf of Mexico can affect eastern Canada including Lakes Ontario and Erie regions, after they get modified and acquire some extra-tropical characteristics. Storm surges have occurred both on the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, in the Gulf of St.Lawrence, St.Lawrence Estuary, Bay of Fundy, Hudson Bay, James Bay, Northwest Passage, Beaufort Sea, the Great Lakes and other large lakes such as Lake Winnipeg.Squall lines which are embedded in the largerscale synoptic systems like the ETC'S could also generate storm surges (referred to as edge waves) in Lakes Huron, Erie and Ontario (edge waves are most prominent in Lake Michigan, but Canada has no territory touching this lake). The effect of climate change on storm surges in the Canadian water bodies could be two-fold. First, there may be some possible intensification of the weather systems and the associated wind fields resulting in bigger surges. Second, and probably even more relevant, is an east-west and north-south shift in the tracks of the weather systems, which could expose certain new areas to storm surge activity.A high priority for proper assessment of storm surge hazard is the production of maps showing inundation zones for storm surges that might occur in populated coastal areas. Such maps can be used to improve public awareness of tsunamis and for planning purposes (i.e., to reduce or avoid the risk).     

中世纪温暖期升温影响中国东部地区自然环境的文献证据

利用丰富的历史文献,研究了中世纪暖期中国东部地区增温对其他自然要素的影响.发现中世纪暖期升温迅速,在增温最快的40a间,每10a平均升温超过了0.5℃.冬季开始日期延后,冬小麦、茶树、柑橘、甘蔗等作物的分布区向北扩展,亚热带北界和暖温带北界均向北移动了一个纬度左右.而从降水格局的变化来看,华北降水偏多,导致了黄河多次改道、河患频繁.农牧交错带地区亦相对湿润,农业得到发展.同时,中世纪温暖期太湖地区水面抬升,排水困难,水系格局发生变化,可能也与升温导致海平面上升有关.     

～934 AD冰岛Eldgjá火山喷发气候效应的中国历史文献记录

用中国的历史文献来研究较早历史时期的火山喷发的气候效应,尤其是喷发持续时间长、过程复杂的冰岛式火山喷发的气候效应,是一项探索性的工作。本文主要探讨了-934 AD冰岛Eldgjá火山喷发在中国的气候效应,发现在Eldgjá火山喷发后,中国的气候变冷突出表现在93-～942 AD,初步估计,939/940 AD冬季洛阳开封一带相对于933-938 AD的降温幅度可达5℃-8℃。在北半球范围,Eldgjá火山喷发后的气候变冷集中在935-937 AD(峰值在935 AD)和939-942 AD(峰值在939-940 AD)两个时期。推测Eldgjá火山在长达3-8年的喷发过程中,可能于934-935 AD和938-939 AD前后各出现一个喷发的高潮。     

晚秋冷害概率预报方法

文章以历史天气图为基础，应用逐步筛滤和判别分析相结合的技术，建立了实用、精度较高的晚秋冷害概率预报可信度计算公式；结合数值预报产品，可制作延长时效的冷害预报。     

青藏高原东北隅弧形构造区现代中小地震密集区与历史强震的关系探讨

青藏高原东北隅地区位于青藏高原、鄂尔多斯和阿拉善三大块体交汇部位,发育一组以逆走滑活动为主的弧形断裂系,其新活动性强,历史及现代强震频发,是探讨现代中小地震密集区与历史强震关联性的理想地区,也是检验和发展小震密集区值方法及其适用条件的有利地区.本文采用甘肃省地震局对该区1970年以来1～5级地震仪器监测目录,利用网格点...     

古湖沼学研究揭示湖泊生态系统服务变化的过程

当今在气候变化和人类活动等多重压力影响下,作为地表过程重要组成部分的湖泊生态系统正遭受着巨大威胁,其服务功能急剧退化.如何客观地评价湖泊生态系统服务的现状,并科学地预测其发展趋势,是当前亟待解决的问题.开展长期生态系统服务变化过程与机理的分析,有助于未来生态系统服务变化趋势的预测.然而,现有的观测数据往往时间较短(通常小于50年).连续的湖泊沉积记录为研究生态系统服务变化的长期过程提供了可能.本文结合前人研究成果,列举了可反映湖泊生态系统服务变化的一些古湖沼学指标,依据这些指标相对明确的生态和环境指示意义,将其与各项服务关联起来.最后,结合巢湖实例分析来说明这些指标在评估湖泊生态系统服务方面的具体应用,研究表明当今巢湖生态系统服务供应能力的持续增加是以调节服务的丧失为代价的.尽管目前的研究尚处于起步阶段,但古湖沼学手段无疑为今后湖泊生态系统服务历史状况的评估提供了途径,为古湖沼学的应用提供了一种新的思路,并为今后生态系统的保护和可持续利用提供重要的决策依据.     

华南、巽他和掸邦地块之间边界断裂的上新世—第四纪大规模构造反转

印度- 亚洲碰撞后，大陆板块沿着大型的左行走滑断裂挤出。规模最大的哀牢山- 红河剪切带(ASRR)将印支地块(巽他地块)与华南地块分隔开来。长约1000 km的红河活动断裂(RRF)沿哀牢山的北侧延伸，目前呈现出右行走滑兼正断的活动性质。本文在讨论了红河断裂系及其周缘的第三纪和现今变形特征(滑移性质反转、渐新世/第四纪位错、全新世滑动速率、GPS测量、地震机制等)基础之上，重点论述了其在上新世—第四纪从云南东南部到越南西北部、北部湾西部、再到更南的沙巴地区的断裂分布和运动学特征。新的数据证实，跨过三联点和越南西北部的奠边府断层之后，华南地块与巽他地块之间的现今大部分右行走滑主要沿着Da River断裂向Day Nui Con Voi(或称大象山)东南方向延伸。Da River断裂与RRF大致平行，是2020年M w 5. 0莫州地震的发震断层。进一步研究表明，Da River断裂很可能沿着渐新世—中新世莺歌海/宋红盆地西缘和越南东南海岸(归仁剪切带)向南延伸得更远，至少延伸到“Ile des Cendres”火山群，并可能继续延伸到沙巴- 文莱逆冲带的西端，靠近婆罗洲北部的近海活动边缘。最后，我们讨论了在菲律宾群岛、台湾岛和巽他群岛之间南海大部分地区大规模构造反转的运动学效应。     

Flood disasters and social resilience during the decline of the Qing Dynasty: Case studies of 1823 and 1849

Based on historical records and crop harvest scores extracted from historical documents, this study reconstructed the spatial–temporal distribution and severities of floods in the Yangtze-Huai River valley (YHRV) in 1823 and 1849. We also summarized the effects of the floods on society and identified government measures taken to cope with the floods in the context of the economic recession in the period of 1801–1850. The 1823 flood, which was caused by the heavy precipitation of the Meiyu period and typhoons, severely affected areas in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Meanwhile, the 1849 flood, triggered by long-term, high-intensity Meiyu precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, mainly affected areas along the Yangtze River. The 1849 disaster was more serious than the one in 1823. In the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the 1849 flood caused the worst agricultural failure of the period 1730–1852. To deal with the disasters, the Qing government took relief measures, such as exempting taxes in the affected areas, distributing grain stored in warehouses, and transferring grain to severely afflicted areas. These relief measures were supplemented by auxiliary measures, such as exempting commodity taxes on grain shipped to disaster areas and punishing officials who failed to provide adequate disaster relief. The flood disasters disrupted the water system of the Grand Canal and forced the Qing government to transport Cao rice by sea beginning in 1826. This laid the groundwork for the rise of coastal shipping in modern China. With the economic recession of the 19th century, Chinese society was not as resilient to floods as it was in the 18th century. Compared to droughts, floods are more difficult to deal with and pose greater threats to infrastructure and normal life and work in the cities.     

Climate change analysis on historical watershed‐scale precipitation by means of long‐term dynamical downscaling

A methodology based on long‐term dynamical downscaling to analyse climate change effects on watershed‐scale precipitation during a historical period is proposed in this study. The reliability and applicability of the methodology were investigated based on the long‐term dynamical downscaling results. For an application of the proposed methodology, two study watersheds in Northern California were selected: the Upper Feather River watershed and the Yuba River watershed. Then, precipitation was reconstructed at 3‐km spatial resolution and hourly intervals over the study watersheds for 141 water years from 1 October 1871 to 30 September 2012 by dynamically downscaling a long‐term atmospheric reanalysis dataset, 20th century global reanalysis version 2 by means of a regional climate model. The reconstructed precipitation was compared against observed precipitation, in order to assess the applicability of the proposed methodology for the reconstruction of watershed‐scale precipitation and to validate this methodology. The validation shows that the reconstructed precipitation is in good agreement with observation data. Moreover, the differences between the reconstructed precipitation and the corresponding observations do not significantly change through the historical period. After the validation, climate change analysis was conducted based on the reconstructed precipitation. Through this analysis, it was found that basin‐average precipitation has increased significantly over both of the study watersheds during the historical period. An upward trend in monthly basin‐average precipitation is not significant in wet months except February while it is significant in dry months of the year. Furthermore, peak values of basin‐average precipitation are also on an upward trend over the study watersheds. The upward trend in peak basin‐average precipitation is more significant during a shorter duration. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

To what extent did changes in temperature affect China's socioeconomic development from the Western Han Dynasty to the Five Dynasties period?

Analysing the contribution of climate and non-climate change factors to social development and the occurrence of historical events represents important research on the impact of climate change. This study identifies combinations of social subsystem indices affected by temperature changes using the conceptual framework of food security, a priori knowledge and logical reasoning to statistically analyse three 10-year data series (grain harvest grades, famine indices and economic levels) from the Western Han Dynasty to the Five Dynasties period of ancient China (210 bc to 960 ad ). The results are as follows. For 94 of the 118 decades in the study period, social development was relatively directly related to temperature effects. On a decadal scale, against a cold background, grain production was closely related to temperature conditions in 40.7% of all decades. Economic prosperity and depressions in 5.1 and 21.2% of these decades, respectively, were directly related to temperature effects. Against a warm background, grain production was closely related to temperature conditions in 39% of all decades. Economic prosperity and depressions in 22 and 8.5% of these decades, respectively, were directly related to the temperature effects. The century and decadal-scale characteristics were the same. Specifically, when mostly negative combinations of natural–socioeconomic factors dominated, the proportion of decades was slightly higher in cold than in warm periods. This case study enables a scientific understanding of the effect of changes in mean climate values/trends on social development and further demonstrates the different effects of the climate change process and mechanism. Climate cooling and warming may bring more positive than negative impacts in some regions and more negative than positive impacts in others. Complex feedback may amplify or reduce the impact of climate cooling and warming. Climate that evolves unfavourably has an impact more strongly correlated with the socioeconomic system's vulnerability and adaptability. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.