基于GIS技术的福州"三坊七巷"保护性改造规划与管理研究

阐述了地理信息系统技术在福州市“三坊七巷”古城保护规划和改造过程中的应用。并就如何利用GIS的丰富表现力与数据分析、空间数据挖掘及城市规划有机结合进行探讨,从而更好地为福州市“三坊七巷”的改造和规划提供辅助决策支持服务。     

历史地震损失重建研究

历史地震损失重建是地震损失预测的一种方法,也是用于区域地震风险分析模型验证的一种手段。在介绍了历史地震损失重建一般方法的基础上,对方法中等效全损住宅比例估计方法以及住宅结构地震易损性指数的估计方法进行了重点分析,给出了这两个关键参数的可选择的多种估计方法。     

由我国历史飞蝗北界记录得到的古气候推断

本文利用我国古代有关飞蝗的文献记录,整理出近1000年来飞蝗记录地域北界变动资料,根据飞蝗的生态习性,推断出飞蝗发生在我国北纬41°以北地区的年份的气温条件指出1162～1177年、1265～1280年和1763～1773年是我国东北地区气候温暖的时段,这分别为南宋气候、中世纪温暖期和小冰期的回暖期提出新的佐证。     

东南沿海地震带b值统计

本文讨论可信的历史地震资料和现代化仪器记录资料的统一使用问题。     

Reconstructing the Palaeoclimate of Jæren, Southwestern Norway, for the Period 1821–1850, from Historical Documentary Records

Documentary data provide long time series and sometimes high-resolution, detailed data from historical times to the present and can give valuable information about palaeoclimate, and for the prediction of future climates. In this paper, documentary data containing qualitative information on climate, in the form of a diary written by the farmer I.G. Grude, and two newspapers, were used for the reconstruction of the palaeoclimate at Jæren, in the county of Rogaland, in southwestern Norway, during the period 1821–50. An index method to quantify the qualitative climate data was developed and used for a low-resolution reconstruction of winter, summer and annual temperatures. A high-resolution climate reconstruction of temperature and precipitation for the winter of 1837/38 is also presented, making use of a method that keeps the climate data in a qualitative form. The climate reconstructions are compared to an instrumental temperature series from Bergen, for the same period. The two data sets are in good agreement except for summer temperature (annual temperature: r = 0.75, winter temperature: r = 0.77, summer temperature: r = 0.44). Compared to average temperatures during 1961–90, the instrumental data from Bergen during the 1821–50 period show slightly different temperatures: annual average was 0.3°C lower, winter 0.4°C lower, and summer 0.1°C lower than at present, implying conditions consistent with the "Little Ice Age" climate.     

山东地区及其海域近期地震活动特点

本通过对山东地区及其海域的历史地震和近代小震活动的分析，认为该区的历史地震活动，自１６８８年以来存在三个Ｍ≥５级地震活动空段；而１９６０年以来，该区ＭＬ≥４．５级地震具有８年的活跃时间段的特点。     

Macroseismic information from historic pictorial sources

Prephotographic depictions of earthquakes can contain important information on the types and amount of damage due to a large earthquake in historic times. Care must be used in evaluating such depictions because some are more accurate than others, and many depictions contain little that is of value in making estimates of seismic intensity. Depictions of two earthquakes, in 1692 at Jamaica and in 1843 at Guadeloupe, illustrate the utility of depictions in intensity estimation. A depiction of the scene at Port Royal in Jamaica of the 1692 shock suggests that the major damage was caused by soil slumping and a tsunami, with the ground shaking itself probably only having been about MMI VII. Two depictions of Pointe-à-Pitre at Guadeloupe after the 1843 event contain evidence that the town was damaged by strong ground shaking as well as by major soil failures. The ground shaking here was probably MMI VII–IX. These and other pictures are being assembled for a monograph of prephotographic earthquake depictions in the Americas.     

Microzonation of the city of Basel

During the past centuries, the city of Basel has suffered damage caused by earthquakes. One extraordinary event described in historical documents is the strong earthquake which occurred in 1356. The 1356 event, one of the strongest earthquakes in northwest-Europe, was obviously much stronger than the low-magnitude earthquakes observed in the area during this century. Even though the present seismicity in the Basel area is low, strong earthquakes have to be expected due to the city's geographical location close to the northern boundary of the African-European convergence zone, at the southern end of the Rhinegraben. A crucial step towards preparedness for future events and mitigation of earthquake risk involves a microzonation study of the city. The study is carried out in three steps: (1) a detailed mapping of the geology and geotechnical properties of the area, (2) measurement, interpretation and modelling of ambient noise data, and (3) numerical modelling of expected ground motions during earthquakes. A qualitative microzonation of the centre of Basel is presented, and it is discussed by comparing it to the historically reported damage of the 1356 earthquake.     

Tree-ring evidence for 1842–1843 eruptive activity at the Goat Rocks dome,Mount St. Helens,Washington

Until the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, a debris fan and adjacent forest downslope from the dacitic Goat Rocks dome, on the north flank of the volcano, contained evidence that the dome was active in 1842 or 1843. The fan was destroyed by the debris avalanche of 18 May. Before 1980, the oldest tree cored on the debris fan showed that the fan predated 1855 by a few years. The young age of this tree suggests that the dome was active several decades after extrusion of the nearby andesitic floating island lava flow, dated to 1800. An anomalous series of narrow rings that starts with the 1843 ring is present in cores from two older trees adjacent to the fan. These ring-width patterns imply that these trees were damaged in late 1842 or early 1843 by flowage material from the dome; the trees were probably singed by an ash-cloud surge that originated on the dome as a hot-rock avalanche. Several lines of evidence suggest that the anomalous ring patterns record tree injury by surge, rather than by lahars or nonvolcanic causes (climate or insects). First, comparable ring patterns formed in all sampled trees that survived the 18 May surge, but formed in only a few sampled trees abraded or partially buried by 18 May lahars. Second, a 13-cm fine-ash layer, consistent with either tephra fall or surge emplacement, was present on the 1840s forest floor; yet the lack of similar tree-ring responses to 1980 tephra fall shows that such minor tephra fall could not have caused the ring patterns. Third, identical 1843 narrow-ring patterns are absent in control trees further from the volcano. The ring patterns of the trees adjacent to the Goat Rocks fan provide the first field evidence that the dome was active in late 1842 or early 1843. Thus, the new tree-ring dates confirm stratigraphic evidence for the youth of the activity of the Goat Rocks dome. They also link historical accounts of mid nineteenth century volcanism at Mount St. Helen with continuing dome extrusion. The dates additionally corroborate and revise the dacite-andesite-dacite petrologic cycle interpretation of Mount St. Helens' Goat Rocks eruptive period (1800–1857). They constrain the cycle to no more than 43 years. Lastly, the dates support the notion that the vent that erupted the 1800 dacitic T tephra was different from the one that produced the Goat Rocks dome. We infer that the magma that formed the floating-island lava flow plugged the T tephra vent. This forced residual magma from the compositionally zoned magma chamber into an alternate conduit. The second conduit produced the unnamed 1842 lithic tephra and the Goat Rocks dome.     

长白山自然保护区历史森林景观的初步重建

本文在对环境因子(包括年均温、年降水量、海拔高度、坡度和坡向)进行空间表达的基础上,建立了长白山自然保护区当前森林景观垂直带(包括阔叶红松林、云冷杉林、岳桦林和苔原)与这些环境因子间的逻辑斯蒂回归模型,然后利用1997年各环境因子的空间数字面来反推1975年森林景观带的空间分布,并根据1975年MSS遥感影像计算机监督分类的结果,用Kappa指数对模型预测结果进行验证。结果表明,苔原、岳桦林、云冷杉林和阔叶红松林1975年的预测分布面积分别为7243.83hm2、6517.08hm2、125570.16hm2和34264.80hm2,与遥感分类结果相比,苔原和云冷杉林的面积分别减少了29.04%和3.05%;岳桦林和阔叶红松林的面积分别增加了246.45%和8.6%。用逻辑斯蒂回归模型可以较好地预测苔原在保护区内的分布范围,同时在一定程度上也能预测阔叶红松林的分布范围,但是对岳桦林和云冷杉林分布范围的预测结果较差。尽管如此,作为一种方法性的探讨,本文可以为森林景观空间分布和环境因子变化的关系以及森林景观对气候变化的反应研究提供一种新思路。