基于Parsivel天气现象仪资料的郑州“7·20”罕见特大暴雨微物理特征分析

基于2016-2018年ECMWF模式温度预报和浙江省72个国家基本站观测资料,根据温度日变化特征,采用K-近邻(KNN)回归算法进行误差订正,改进浙江省172 h精细化温度预报。在KNN回归算法中,将模式起报时刻的温度视作“背景”,由模式预报减去起报时刻温度消除“背景”影响,得到温度日变化曲线,通过温度日变化曲线构建差异指标,选取历史相似个例。根据历史相似个例的误差特征,对温度预报进行订正,得到改进的温度预报。检验结果表明,KNN方案的温度预报平均绝对误差较ECMWF和30 d滑动平均误差订正方案(OCF)的分别减小26.2%和5.2%;日最高和最低温度预报误差绝对值小于2℃,准确率较ECMWF的分别提高14.8%和4.3%,较OCF的分别提高3.0%和1.3%。KNN方案对地形复杂地区的温度预报改进效果更为明显,对冷空气活动和夏季高温等天气过程预报改善效果也较稳定。     

Estimation and Long-term Trend Analysis of Surface Solar Radiation in Antarctica: A Case Study of Zhongshan Station

Long-term,ground-based daily global solar radiation (DGSR) at Zhongshan Station in Antarctica can quantitatively reveal the basic characteristics of Earth’s surface radiation balance and validate satellite data for the Antarctic region.The fixed station was established in 1989,and conventional radiation observations started much later in 2008.In this study,a random forest (RF) model for estimating DGSR is developed using ground meteorological observation data,and a highprecision,long-term DGSR dataset is constructed.Then,the trend of DGSR from 1990 to 2019 at Zhongshan Station,Antarctica is analyzed.The RF model,which performs better than other models,shows a desirable performance of DGSR hindcast estimation with an R~2 of 0.984,root-mean-square error of 1.377 MJ m~(-2),and mean absolute error of 0.828 MJ m~(-2).The trend of DGSR annual anomalies increases during 1990–2004 and then begins to decrease after 2004.Note that the maximum value of annual anomalies occurs during approximately 2004/05 and is mainly related to the days with precipitation (especially those related to good weather during the polar day period) at this station.In addition to clouds and water vapor,bad weather conditions (such as snowfall,which can result in low visibility and then decreased sunshine duration and solar radiation) are the other major factors affecting solar radiation at this station.The high-precision,longterm estimated DGSR dataset enables further study and understanding of the role of Antarctica in global climate change and the interactions between snow,ice,and atmosphere.     

Spatial and temporal controls on historical channel responses – study of an atypical case: Someşu Mic River,Romania

In this paper the spatial and temporal responses of the Some?u Mic River (Romania) to natural and anthropogenic controls over the past 150 years are analysed, based on a series of morphometric parameters extracted from five successive sets of topographic maps and one set of orthophotos. Prior to the intensive hydrotechnical interventions of the last four decades, the river was characterized by a complex alternation of different channel types, resulting in a mixture of alluvial and mixed sinuous – meandering – sinuous anabranched – meandering anabranched reaches, each a few hundred metres to a few kilometres long. The main cause for this spatial behaviour was the local geology. Its effects were intensified by a larger scale slope, slightly higher than along a longitudinal profile with normal concavity, as a consequence of the presence of a 400 m elevation knick‐point located in the catchment area. A generalized maintenance of river in the floodplain perimeter during the entire interval of study (centennial scale), with local planform adjustments and lack of median scale avulsion in lateral tilting areas and along the anabranched reaches, channel lengthening and meander development during hydrological stable periods and channel shortening and increasing of natural cutoffs during periods with higher incidence of floods (decadal scale), and the incapacity of local morphologic changes resulted from human interventions to completely counterbalance general trends (decadal scale), supports the idea of decreasing the amplitude and frequency of important floods, after the end of the Little Ice Age. Channel metamorphosis by canalization, diminishing/elimination of overflows and medium‐scale avulsions by changes in flow regimes (dams) and the presence of dykes in the floodplain perimeter, channel narrowing (43%) and incision (at least after 1945) downstream from dams, and probably because of in‐channel gravel mining are the main anthropically induced changes along the Some?u Mic River. Even if human impact is important, both at the drainage basin scale and along the Some?u Mic River, it has only local impacts, subordinated to climate. The low level of human impact on this river could be the consequence of the higher general slope downstream from 400 m elevation knick‐point, which probably forces the positioning of its effects under an important internal threshold of the fluvial system. This boundary condition defines Some?u Mic River as an atypical river. This study supports the idea that climate has a more important role in the post‐Little Ice Age (LIA) rivers' behaviour than currently accepted. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

山西周边地区地震类型分区特征

中国大陆中强地震余震序列的研究(王华林,周翠英,1997;刁守中等,2002;蒋海昆等,2006)表明,中强地震序列类型空间分布具有统计意义上较明显的区域性特征.即某些区域中强地震以某种类型的序列活动为主,另一些区域又以另外类型的序列活动为主,固定区域的序列类型保持相对的稳定性.事实上,     

What should these rivers look like? Historical range of variability and human impacts in the Colorado Front Range,USA

Historical range of variability (HRV) describes the range of temporal and spatial variations in river variables such as flow regime or channel planform prior to intensive human alteration of the ecosystem. In mountainous river networks, HRV is most usefully applied to spatially differentiated geomorphic process domains with distinctive form and process. Using the Colorado Front Range as an example, three examples of how knowledge of HRV can assist river management and restoration are discussed. The examples involve instream wood load and channel morphology, beaver colonies and valley‐bottom form and process, and flow thresholds in regulated rivers. The question of what a river should look like – that is, what range of process and form the river included prior to intensive human alteration – can be addressed by (i) placing the river within a process domain, (ii) establishing correlations between form parameters that can be remotely sensed and reach‐scale process and form, so that the spatial extent, connectivity, and rarity of process domains within a river network or a region can be quickly assessed, (iii) inferring characteristics of the river prior to intensive alteration by documenting characteristics of the least altered reference rivers and by using proxy indicators of pre‐alteration conditions, and (iv) establishing process thresholds that must be exceeded to maintain form (e.g. flow thresholds to mobilize bed sediment). Once this context has been established, resource managers can better evaluate the options for restoring altered riverine form and function. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

高分辨湖泊沉积和孢粉记录对气候、水文变化的响应

通过对长江中游网湖钻孔高精度分层样品(1.5年/样品)的沉积学和孢粉学研究,试图揭示过去百年网湖在由开放到封闭体系变化中,沉积孢粉与气候、水文动力变化的过程及其相互关系.相关分析和低频滤波分析,反映出沉积物和孢粉的变化对流域降水和长江流量的敏感响应.在过去130年中的多雨洪水年份,湖泊受长江倒灌影响,沉积物以黏土细颗粒...     

历史极端雨涝事件研究——1823年我国东部大范围雨涝

1823年(清道光三年)我国发生大范围、多流域的严重雨涝,这是在小冰期寒冷气候背景下的重大气象灾害和极端气候事件.文章依据历史文献记载复原了1823年的气候实况并绘图显示,指出该年我国华北夏季雨期长、多大雨,北京6～8月雨日53天、降水量663mm超过现代(1971～2000年)平均值5成;长江中下游全年多雨,梅雨期长...     

三眼峪特大泥石流堆积特征

通过野外勘查与试验,认为三眼峪泥石流沟是一个高频泥石流沟,历史上发生多次重大泥石流灾害事件,多期泥石流堆积物在沟道及沟口上下超覆叠置。结合泥石流发生前后遥感影像对比,采用ArcGIS平台进行分析,“8．8”特大泥石流一次最大冲出固体物质总量达152．18×10^4m^3,所到之处房毁江堵,并形成长约1．9km的狭长堆积,堆积量110．58×10^4m^3,最大堆积厚度达10．8m。因泥石流堆积特征是泥石流发生、发展、活动过程的客观记录,分析了三眼峪早期和“8．8”泥石流在不同部位的堆积特征和破坏程度,为泥石流综合整治和灾后重建规划提供参考。     

1819年黄河中游极端降水:史实、特征及气候背景

据清官档案与方志记载,复原了1819年(清嘉庆二十四年)黄河中、下游大范围房屋倒塌、民田冲没、人口伤亡、黄河多处决溢等雨涝灾情图景及时空分异特征,这是在明清小冰期大气候背景下的极端气候事件和重大气象灾害.研究指出,该年黄河中游夏秋季雨期长(连阴雨)、且多大到暴雨,二级流域(汾河、渭河)6-9月份降水县区雨日高达40日以...     

Evidence for repeated re‐activation of old landslides under forest

Local reactivations of landslides in forests are rarely reported in landslide catalogues. The occurrence of hillslope sections with fresh morphological landslide features in forested old, deep‐seated landslides, however, suggests that landslide reactivations are not restricted to residential areas. In this study, a dendrogeomorphological analysis of beech stands was used to investigate the periods of reactivation of a deep‐seated rotational slide in the Koppenberg forest (Flemish Ardennes, Belgium). The relation to rainfall and the correspondence to landslide reactivations reported in a nearby built‐up area were also analysed. A dendrometrical study preceding the dendrochronological analysis proved that, compared with the nearby reference site, trees on the Koppenberg forest landslide site were significantly more inclined and showed more knees, indicating that the landslide site has not stabilized yet. As the sampled trees are younger than the landslide, dendrochronology did not allow determination of the year in which the landslide was initiated, but analysis of two different tree ring width parameters (i.e. ring eccentricity and growth change) calculated for trees sampled on the Koppenberg landslide and the reference site proved to be of great help in determining the temporal sequence of landslide reactivation. During the past 80 years, several periods indicative of local reactivations (i.e. 1943–1945, 1949–1952, 1967–1970, 1972–1977, 1979–1981, 1988–1997) were found within the investigated landslide, but delineation of the spatial extent of the reactivations during these indicative periods was not straightforward. These periods generally correspond to years with above‐average rainfall. Finally, the fact that at least 34% of the years indicative of reactivation of the Koppenberg forest landslide correspond to a year in which a landslide reactivation was reported in the Flemish Ardennes suggests that in built‐up areas, apart from anthropogenic interventions, natural triggering factors remain very important. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.