The anatomy of a disaster, an overview of Hurricane Katrina and New Orleans

Hurricane Katrina created the one of the worst natural disaster in the history of the United States, resulting in over 1600 fatalities and $30B in direct economic losses in southern Louisiana. The Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines experienced the highest surge level recorded in North America and Katrina-generated waves in the Gulf of Mexico that equaled the highest previously measured by NOAA buoys. What happened in New Orleans epitomizes the risk of living below sea level in a coastal city, depending on structures that were the result of considerable compromise and piecemeal funding and construction. The Interagency Performance Evaluation Task Force was established to examine the performance of the New Orleans and southeast Louisiana hurricane protection system and provide real-time input to the repairs and rebuilding of the system. In addition to this atypical just-in-time forensic analysis, the task force examined the risk of living in New Orleans prior to and following the repairs to the hurricane protection system. Much of the forensic analysis depended on modeling and simulation of hurricane surge and waves. With virtually all measurement instruments swept away by Katrina, only models and high-water marks were available to recreate the conditions that the structures experienced during the storm. Because of the complexities of the region and the processes involved, simulation of hurricane surge and waves required many fresh ideas and new approaches and these topics, along with new concepts for future planning and design, are the focus of this special issue. Yet, the need to influence the repair and rebuilding of the damaged structures prior to the next hurricane season (roughly 9 months) dictated using existing computational tools that were ready to go. The same modeling and simulation approach was put to work to define the surge and wave hazard New Orleans faces for the future. To put this important body of work in context, this paper provides a broad overview of the entire scope of work of the task force and summarizes its principal findings.     

Quadrature-based approach for the efficient evaluation of surge hazard

The Joint Probability Method (JPM) has been used for hurricane surge frequency analysis for over three decades, and remains the method of choice owing to the limitations of more direct historical methods. However, use of the JPM approach in conjunction with the modern generation of complex high-resolution numerical models (used to describe winds, waves, and surge) has become highly inefficient, owing to the large number of costly storm simulations that are typically required. This paper describes a new approach to the selection of the storm simulation set that permits reduction of the JPM computational effort by about an order of magnitude (compared to a more conventional approach) while maintaining good accuracy. The method uses an integration scheme called Bayesian or Gaussian-process quadrature (together with conventional integration methods) to evaluate the multi-dimensional joint probability integral over the space of storm parameters (pressure, radius, speed, heading, and any others found to be important) as a weighted summation over a relatively small set of optimally selected nodes (synthetic storms). Examples of an application of the method are shown, drawn from the recent post-Katrina study of coastal Mississippi.     

连云港近岸海域沉积物中重金属污染来源及生态评价

采用等离子体发射光谱法、冷原子吸收法、原子荧光光谱法及灼烧法测定了连云港海州湾近岸表层沉积物中重金属和有机质的含量,利用主成分分析法(Principal Component Analysis,PCA)研究了沉积物中重金属的来源,发现前3个主成分的贡献率分别为54.21%、19.04%、16.37%,表明重金属主要有3个来源:工业和生活污水排放、农业灌溉水的排放、有机质降解。以PCA计算结果为基础应用海洋沉积物污染指数(Marine sediment pollution index,MSPI)和平均沉积物质量标准商数(Mean sediment quality guideline quotient,SQG-Q)评价了沉积物中重金属的污染状况及对生物的潜在影响。结果发现,海州湾近岸海区沉积物质量污染严重(MSPI值在60到80之间),排污口海区的沉积物污染最为严重(MSPI值大于80),连云港近岸海域沉积物对生物的负影响潜力为中度水平(0.1SQG-Q1)。     

Understanding marine ecosystem based management: A literature review

Ecosystem based management takes into account the interconnectedness and interdependent nature of ecosystem components and emphasizes the importance of ecosystem structures and functions which provide a range of services. The concept has now been adopted by many international agreements and national governments and is in the process of being implemented. This paper seeks to review the literature and to analyze the understanding of the subject. The term is defined and its implementation in fisheries and for all marine uses is analyzed. It has been concluded that to understand marine ecosystem based management one must consider ecosystems as complex adaptive systems which can show changes at higher levels from actions and processes occurring at lower levels. Recognizing that humans are part of these complex adaptive systems is vital in that their actions along with other processes can lead to transformations in ecosystem functioning. This recognition is also important to show how society can sustainably exploit these resources and that the inclusion of all stakeholders in the management process is necessary to legitimize the process. The uses of the precautionary principle along with adaptive management are seen to be useful tools in implementing these insights into the management of natural resources. Finally, the need for reducing consumption of fish is considered.     

Reconstructing tsunami run-up from the characteristics of tsunami deposits on the Thai Andaman Coast

Tsunamis can leave deposits on the land surface they inundate. The characteristics of tsunami deposits can be used to calculate tsunami run-up height and velocity. This paper presents a reconstruction of tsunami run-up from tsunami deposit characteristics in a simple mathematical model. The model is modified and applied to reconstruct tsunami run-ups at Ao Kheuy beach and Khuk Khak beach, Phangnga province, Thailand. The input parameters are grain-size and maximum run-up distance of the sediment. The reconstructed run-up heights are 4.16–4.91 m at Ao Kheuy beach and 5.43–9.46 m at Khuk Khak beach. The estimated run-up velocities (maximum velocity) at the still water level are 12.78–19.21 m/s. In the area located 70–140 m inland to the end of run-up inundation, estimated mean run-up velocities decrease from approximately 1.93 m/s to 0 m/s. Reasonably good agreements are found between reconstructed and observed run-up heights. The tsunami run-up height and velocity can be used for risk assessment and coastal development programs in the tsunami affected area. The results show that the area from 0 to 140 m inland was flooded by high velocity run-ups and those run-up energies were dissipated mainly in this area. The area should be designated as either an area where settlement is not permitted or an area where effective protection is provided, for example with flood barriers or forest.     

胶州湾海域营养状况研究

根据2000～2009年胶州湾海水监测资料,选用单项指标分析和富营养化指数法,对胶州湾海域以及主要河口区营养水平进行评价。结果表明,胶州湾水质较差,无机氮严重超标,N/P值为62.7,呈现高N低P状况,整个海域呈中度-重度富营养状态。主要河口海域无机氮(IN)严重超标,富营养化程度高,其中墨水河口为严重富营养,楼山河口为重度富营养。     

辽东湾西部滨海地区海水入侵研究

通过对19个观测井2年定期、连续的水位观测,以及水质主要9种离子浓度分析,阐述了辽东湾西部沿岸海水入侵的分布特征。根据海水入侵区地下水中主要离子浓度与地下水的相关关系,总结了随着海水入侵的发展地下水化学类型的变化。地下水化学类型分为5大类型:Na+-Cl-型、Cl-.HCO3-或HCO3-.Cl-型(阳离子为Ca2+.Na+)、HCO3-.Cl-.SO42-或Cl-.HCO3-.SO42-型水(阳离子为Ca2+)、SO42-.HCO3-型(阳离子为Na+.Ca2+)、HCO3-型(阳离子为Ca2+.Na+)。该区地下水水化学类型呈带状分布,类型变化规律明显,反映了海水入侵分布特征。当淡水开采时,水位降深越大,微咸水入侵强度越大。控制淡水开采是防止微咸水入侵的主要措施。     

琼州海峡海底电缆路由工程地质特征

根据地球物理、声学探测、海底取样及实验室测试等实测资料详细分析,发现琼州海峡具有独特的自然条件以及复杂的工程地质特征。海底地形地貌非常复杂,存在沙波、沙堤沙丘、冲刷槽、冲刷脊和丘状突起、陡坡、滑坡、珊瑚礁、浅埋岩石、软弱地层等潜在的地质灾害因素,尤其在琼州海峡中央深槽区,坡度很大,分布着多种潜在的地质灾害,是海底光缆的危险区,应引起重视。     

不同空间尺度的山洪灾害风险评价模型对比研究

以山洪灾害风险评价的多准则决策模型、最大熵模型、信息量模型三种常见模型为研究对象,选取河西走廊和张掖市为地理区划（大中）、市域（小）空间尺度研究区,构建山洪灾害风险评价指标体系,分别完成基于三种模型的两种空间尺度的山洪灾害风险评价制图,基于甘肃省地质灾害调查与区划报告数据从模型验证、空间自相关、精度对比和尺度效应等角度对比分析三个模型应用于不同空间尺度的适应性,并给出优选模型。结果表明：最大熵模型是河西走廊（地理区划）空间尺度上山洪灾害风险评价的优选模型;多准则决策模型不适用于张掖市（市域）空间尺度评价,且三个模型运行结果均没有河西走廊（地理区划）空间尺度上表现良好;三个模型的尺度效应明显,在地理区划空间尺度上应用较良好,缩小至市域空间尺度上模拟结果误差增大;不同空间尺度上,最大熵模型均优于多准则决策模型和信息量模型,适用于地理区划（大中）、市域（小）空间尺度的山洪灾害风险评价。     

张掖盆地地下水硝酸盐污染与人体健康风险评价

地下水是张掖盆地的重要水资源,其硝酸盐污染尚未得到足够重视。对张掖盆地2004、2015年地下水硝酸盐浓度进行了系统分析,并采用美国环境保护署（USEPA）推荐的健康风险评价模型评估了地下水硝酸盐的健康风险。结果表明：自2004年以来张掖盆地地下水硝酸盐污染日趋严重。2015年硝酸盐浓度最高已达到283.32 mg·L^-1,17.61%的采样点硝酸盐氮浓度超过GB5749-2006《生活饮用水卫生标准》中饮用地下水限量值（20 mg·L^-1）。研究区人群经皮肤接触途径摄入硝酸盐的健康风险在可接受水平,而饮水摄入硝酸盐的健康风险较高,总风险中饮水途径引起健康风险的贡献率占99.40%,远大于皮肤接触途径。儿童经饮水摄入和皮肤接触两种途径的健康风险均显著高于成人,分别为成人的1.544倍和1.039倍。32.39%的采样点地下水硝酸盐对儿童的健康风险超出了可接受水平,14.79%的采样点地下水硝酸盐对成人的健康风险不可接受。甘州区城区、临泽县北部边缘及高台县城区周围硝酸盐浓度最高,这些区域内所有人群都面临硝酸盐引发的高健康风险,其余区域硝酸盐引发的健康风险相对较低。