自动风向转换程序设计思路

由于OSSMO 2004版地面测报业务软件中抄录报表风向不太方便，故长治县气象局自行设计了自动风向角度和方位的转换程序。本程序用OBJECT PASCAL语言编写，在DELPHI中实现，采用Microsoft．Jet．OLEDB．4．0数据库引擎及ADO的方式操作数据库。     

竖向地震动强度包络函数的空间变化规律

利用SMART 1台阵三次地震记录拟合了各个测点在地震中的竖向地震动强度包络曲线及Amin 和Ang的强度包络函数中各模型参数值,分析了各模型参数的空间变化规律,建立了各模型参数随二维空间坐标及土层厚度变化的随机模型,为多点地震动合成中竖向强度包络函数的计算提供了理论依据。     

Slow mass movement in the Kangchenjunga area, eastern Nepal Himalaya

Abstract   The rates of the accumulated and continuous displacement of solifluction lobes in the Kangchenjunga area, eastern Nepal Himalaya, were determined using glass fiber tubes and a strain probe. Ground temperature, precipitation and soil moisture were monitored at two sites, whose altitude differed by approximately 100 m, to understand the solifluction process. The average movement rate of the glass fiber tubes on a 31° slope at altitudes of 5412–5414 m a.s.l. was approximately 11 mm/year, being almost threefold greater than that observed on a 22° slope at 5322–5325 ma.s.l. There was no significant difference in the depth of displacement at these sites. The continuous displacement measurement near the ground surface at 5414 m showed permanent downslope movement from early July. Such movement may be attributed to additional moisture supply during the monsoon season. The amplitude of the displacement cycle was highest at the ground surface, and decreased to virtually zero at and below 20 cm in depth. Probable factors leading to the relatively slow rates of downslope displacement at the surface and depth at the studied altitudes are the lack of concurrence of the freeze–thaw cycles and the high moisture condition in the soil, and the low moisture retention capacity of the soil because of steep slopes and superficial desiccation. The rate of displacement may be more pronounced at altitudes above 5600 m because of the freeze–thaw cycles during the summer season.     

The effective number of cycles of earthquake ground motion

The seismic response of any system that accumulates damage under cyclic loading is dependent not only on the maximum amplitude of the motion but also its duration. This is explicitly recognized in methods for estimating the liquefaction potential of soil deposits. Many researchers have proposed that the effective number of cycles of the ground motion is a more robust indicator of the destructive capacity of the shaking than the duration. However, as is the case with strong‐motion duration, there is no universally accepted approach to determining the effective number of cycles of motion, and the different methods that have been proposed can give widely varying results for a particular accelerogram. Definitions of the effective number of cycles of motion are reviewed, classified and compared. Measurements are found to differ particularly for accelerograms with broad‐banded frequency content, which contain a significant number of non‐zero crossing peaks. The key seismological parameters influencing the number of cycles of motion and associated equations for predicting this quantity for future earthquakes are identified. Correlations between cycle counts and different duration measures are explored and found to be rather poor in the absence of additional parameters. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Study on comparison between absolute and relative input energy spectra and effects of ductility factor

Introduction Estimation of an attenuation relationship for strong ground motion parameters has been an interesting research subject in the field of engineering seismology and has played a very important role in seismic safety evaluation, seismic zoning, seismic hazard evaluation of major constructions, etc. At present, the generally used parameters include peak acceleration, peak velocity and elastic response spectrum. Such parameters mentioned above are essentially independent of the duration…     

Study on simulating strong ground motion by fractal stochastic method

The time history of strong ground motion can be synthesized by empirical Green's function (EGF) method.Firstly a large seismic event is discretized into a series of subevents; secondly recordings of earthquakes with proper size and spatial distribution are chosen as time history (EGF) of those subevents; finally the EGFs are summated to get the time history of ground motion caused by the large event.     

Evaluation of current statistical approaches for predictive geomorphological mapping

Predictive models are increasingly used in geomorphology, but systematic evaluations of novel statistical techniques are still limited. The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of generalized linear models (GLM), generalized additive models (GAM), classification tree analysis (CTA), neural networks (ANN) and multiple adaptive regression splines (MARS) in predictive geomorphological modelling. Five different distribution models both for non-sorted and sorted patterned ground were constructed on the basis of four terrain parameters and four soil variables. To evaluate the models, the original data set of 9997 squares of 1 ha in size was randomly divided into model training (70%, n=6998) and model evaluation sets (30%, n=2999).In general, active sorted patterned ground is clearly defined in upper fell areas with high slope angle and till soils. Active non-sorted patterned ground is more common in valleys with higher soil moisture and fine-scale concave topography. The predictive performance of each model was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Kappa value. The relatively high discrimination capacity of all models, AUC=0.85–0.88 and Kappa=0.49–0.56, implies that the model's predictions provide an acceptable index of sorted and non-sorted patterned ground occurrence. The best performance for model calibration data for both data sets was achieved by the CTA. However, when the predictive mapping ability was explored through the evaluation data set, the model accuracies of CTA decreased clearly compared to the other modelling techniques. For model evaluation data MARS performed marginally best.Our results show that the digital elevation model and soil data can be used to predict relatively robustly the activity of patterned ground in fine scale in a subarctic landscape. This indicates that predictive geomorphological modelling has the advantage of providing relevant and useful information on earth surface processes over extensive areas, such data being unavailable through more conventional survey methods.     

Archaeoseismic record at the ancient Roman City of Baelo Claudia (Cádiz, south Spain)

This study represents the first paleoseismic approach in Spain in which archaeological remains are considered. The ancient Roman city of Baelo Claudia (1st–4th centuries AD), located at the axial zone of the Gibraltar Strait (Cadiz, south Spain), contains abundant disrupted architectural relics and ground collapses (i.e. landsliding, liquefacion) probably related to historic earthquake damage of intensity IX–X MSK. The archaeological stratigraphy of the city evidence two major episodes of abrupt city destruction bracketed in AD 40–60 and AD 350–395 separated by an intervening horizon of demolition for city rebuilding, otherwise characteristic for many earthquake-damaged archaeological sites in the Mediterranean. The second episode led the eventual city abandonment, and it is evidenced by good examples of column collapse, distortion, failure and breakdown of house and city walls, and pavement warping and disruptions documented during different archaeological excavations, which can be catalogued as secondary coseismic effects. Main damaged relicts observable today are the set of pop-up like arrays and warping developed in the ancient Roman pavement. Their analysis indicate an anomalous westwards ground displacement oblique to the main gentle southward slope of the topography, as also evidence failures, collapses and breakdown of walls and columns, suggesting that stress acted in a broad SW–NE/WSW–ENE orientation consistent whit the expectable motion along the largest NE–SW strike-slip faults of the zone, which in turn can be catalogued as seismic sources of moderate events (ca. 5 mb). Major disruptions and city abandonment were hesitantly related to relatively far strong earthquakes occurred during the late 4th century AD in the Mediterranean or western coast of Iberia by Menanteau et al. [Menanteau, L., Vanney, J.R., Zazo, C., 1983. Belo II : Belo et son environment (Detroit de Gibraltar), Etude physique d'un site antique. Pub. Casa de Velazquez, Serie Archeologie 4., Ed. Broccard, París.]. However, this study indicates that the occurrence of close moderate earthquakes jointly with the unstable character of the ground at the zone (site effect) is a more reliable hypothesis to explain the observed deformations.