The prediction for seismicity trends of M≥8 in the world by analysis of seismicity patterns

After completion of a study on predicting risky zones of earthquake of M≥8 for 1-3 years in the mainland of China,which was supported by Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation(D07018 and D08009),a further study was extended to that of greater magnitudes in the world.Based on the historical earthquake cases,we finished the research report,forecasting global earthquakes with magnitude more than 8.0 using the image analysis of seismicity.In this research report,we summarize 11 abnormal seismicity images for predicting earthquake of M≥8.0 around the world.In our research report,we predicted earthquakes of M≥8.0 from June 2009 to June 2014,the medium term predicting within 5 years period.Among these 5 predictive areas,three earthquakes occurred,which is Samoa M8.1 Earthquake on 29 September 2009,Talca M8.5 Earthquake on 27 January 2010,Chile,and Eastern Sendai M9.0 Earthquake on 11 March 2011,Japan respectively.Here we introduce the main items of the image analysis of seismicity and we predict three earthquakes and think that the image analysis of seismicity can be of help.     

Enhancing remote sensing research on global change to improve our understanding on Earth system processes

正Global Change includes climate change and other environmental changes caused by the joint interaction among various layers of Earth. From the positive side, global change provides new opportunities to human and other living forms on Earth. In the meantime, it creates tremendous challenges and negative impact. At present, the negative impacts have reached all primary processes of the global ecosystem and every aspect of human society, especially causing degradation of the ecosystem. For instance, intensive deforestation causes decline of biodiversity; global warming causes sea level rise and increases     

Revisiting and rethinking regional urbanization in Changjiang River Delta, China

China is entering a critical and accelerating phase of urbanization.As one of the most urbanized regions in China,the Changjiang(Yangtze)River Delta has experienced dramatic urbanization and urban transformation.However,in the recent years,many changes have taken place in this region and there is limited attention to the regional urbanization path evolution,its problems and the way to solve these problems.Therefore,we should revisit the urbanization process in the Changjiang River Delta again.In this paper,we revisited urbanization paths of the Changjiang River Delta by data analysis,influence factors of urbanization by the Gray Relational Analysis,and major challenges to urbanization of the Changjiang River Delta by theoretical considerations.We found that the urbanization of the Changjiang River Delta had experienced several stages of large-scale spatial and urban system restructuring.Within the Changjiang River Delta,Shanghai,Zhejiang and Jiangshu had experienced different urbanization path with local characteristics.But with their development model gradually converging,their urbanization model is also converging.We also found that the major influence factors affecting the Changjiang River Delta urbanization were dynamic change and urbanization was driven by different key factors in different socio-economic development stages.Meanwhile,the Changjiang River Delta urbanization is facing many problems such as existing institutional arrangements,including the hukou(household registration)system and others which can not meet the needs of current socioeconomic development and urbanization.Therefore,it is imperative to promote institutional innovation and adopt a new urbanization development strategy for the sake of the orderly and sustainable urbanization development in the Changjiang River Delta.     

血吸虫病医学地理研究的回顾与展望

医学地理研究由来已久,但地理学界血吸虫病医学地理研究相对薄弱,而且多是非地理专业人员在从事相应工作。本文首先从血吸虫病流行传播的机理出发,分析了血吸虫病医学地理的主要研究内容,认为钉螺滋生地与血吸虫病疫情的监测和预测是血吸虫病医学地理研究的主要内容;其次系统总结了气象气候因子、土壤植被因子、地貌高程因子、水文水力因子、人文经济因子对血吸虫生命史及其宿主的影响,并视其为血吸虫病医学地理研究的基础;然后回顾了近年国际、国内运用遥感、GIS技术和统计学方法(包括地统计学方法)进行钉螺滋生地与血吸虫病疫情确定的主要研究手段,归纳了7类钉螺滋生地预测方法和5类血吸虫病疫情预测方法;最后剖析了目前血吸虫病医学地理研究面临的主要挑战和未来血吸虫病医学地理研究努力方向。     

汶川特大地震之北川县城震害分析

2008年5月12日汶川8.0级地震在北川县城造成了巨大的破坏,导致上万人死亡,整个北川县城变为废墟。现场地震科考分析显示,造成北川县城建筑物和道路严重损毁以及人员重大伤亡的三个主要原因为:活断层错动产生的地表破裂效应,地震引发的次生地质灾害(崩塌、滑坡)和强地震动产生的振动破坏效应。北川县城主断裂和次级断裂沿线分布的建筑物震害较重,而邻近断裂的建筑物震害相对较轻;地震触发的王家岩滑坡和景家山崩塌对北川县城造成了极大的破坏,导致2000余人死亡;而振动破坏效应在北川县城普遍存在,它产生的水平剪切运动对建筑物的危害很严重。     

广西百朗地下河水和沉积物中有机氯农药的分布特征

为了解典型岩溶地区广西乐业百朗地下河表层水和沉积物中有机氯农药的分布特征,采集地下河不同断面的水和沉积物样品,利用气相色谱仪测定了19种有机氯农药。结果表明:(1)百朗地下河表层水中19种有机氯农药总量(∑OCPs)浓度为1.95～71.45ng/L,HCHs和DDTs浓度分别为未检出至58.40ng/L和未检出至0.44ng/L;(2)沉积物中∑OCPs浓度为0.75～14.85ng/g,HCHs和DDTs浓度分别为0.11～3.52ng/g和0.03～2.90ng/g;(3)地下河表层水和沉积物中有机氯农药的分布与吸附作用、环境温度以及和地下河连通的天坑的底部的土壤侵蚀有关,即因温差作用,大气沉降的有机氯农药易富集在天坑底部(“冷陷阱效应”),并在土壤侵蚀作用下向水体移动,使地下河沉积物中有机氯农药浓度升高;(4)百朗地下河出口沉积物吸附系数最低,但水中有机氯农药浓度较高且种类最多,推测可能是地下河沉积物中因有机氯农药被释放而引起二次污染;(5)表层沉积物中大多数断面的异狄氏剂浓度及乐业县城附近断面的DDTs和DDD浓度在风险评估低值与风险评估中值之间,表明百朗地下河处于较低的生态风险水平;(6)目前,流域部分断面尚有新的γ-HCH(林丹)和DDTs农药输入。由于有机氯农药长期累积,可能对地下河生态系统造成危害,应采取防治措施。      

2008年深圳洪涝灾害的气候背景和环流条件

用NCC/CMA资料分析了2008年6月深圳降水异常事件的成因,结果认为:2007年7月—2008年2月赤道西太平洋海表温度异常偏低、2008年前冬今春青藏高原积雪面积偏大是深圳异常降水事件的前期气候背景;2008年6月东亚阻塞高压的异常强大及乌拉尔山长波槽的异常加深发展,促进了经向环流异常增强;偏强的冷空气以阶梯槽的形式频繁入侵华南,为深圳异常降水事件提供了动力条件。副高西段较常年偏南,西伸脊点偏东;强劲的季风潮为深圳地区输送了巨大的水汽和热量;冷暖空气在华南地区的频繁交汇与维持是深圳异常降水事件的主要成因。上述多种因素的异常共同导致了深圳异常降水事件的发生。     

黄旗海湖泊沉积记录的早中全新世大湖期环境的差异性

内蒙古黄旗海H6剖面揭示了最近间冰期古湖泊涨缩的一个完整旋回。基于OSL年代、粒度并结合沉积物地球化学等数据,分析了黄旗海在早、中全新世（约（11.4±1.1～6.7±0.7）ka）大湖期指标记录特点与环境意义。研究认为黄旗海全新世大湖期可分为三个阶段:1）（11.4±1.1～9.3±0.9） ka BP,半深水环境、湖水盐度低、流域存在有利于化学风化的湿润气候条件;2）（9.3±0.9～7.7±0.7） ka BP,湖水变浅、湖泊萎缩、湖泊盐度升高,流域可能存在不利于化学风化的干燥气候;3）（7.7±0.7～6.7±0.7） ka BP,大湖期结束,指标记录存在剧烈波动,揭示气候具有宽幅震荡特征。同时,研究初步认为Mn/Li比值可以作为流域化学风化的指标指示。     

兰州观象台存放台阵汶川M_S8.0强震动记录与分析

兰州观象台存放台阵在汶川特大地震中获取了10组三分量数字强震动加速度记录.本文依据这些实际观测资料研究了黄土场地在地震发生后的自由场地面运动加速度过程及其特征.结果表明在震源、场地和震中距相同情况下,场地上不同测点记录的加速度峰值存在一定程度的差异,较明显地反映了场地地形对EW分向地面自由场加速度的影响.10个测点的峰值加速度(PGA)均显示EW向大于NS向,而垂直向最小;各测点的傅里叶谱值,尤其是在小于1 Hz频段范围内,差异极小.     

高烈度地震区岩土体边坡崩塌动力学特性研究

"5·12"汶川特大地震引发的次生山地灾害中以山体崩塌数量最多.本文在对国道213线都江堰至映秀段以及水磨支线公路边坡地震崩塌调查研究的基础上,分析总结了岩土体边坡的崩塌成灾模式、崩塌作用机理以及崩塌自组织临界(SOC)动力学特性.调查范围包括Ⅸ～Ⅺ度地震区,工点105个.对崩塌体方量、崩塌深度进行统计分析后发现,在Ⅸ度区崩塌体方量和崩塌深度都符合负幂律分布,呈现出明显的自组织临界动力学特性;而Ⅹ、Ⅺ度地震区不呈现该崩塌特性,其崩塌动力学性质受地震的强扰作用控制.