长白山天池火山地震观测与应力状态的初步研究

１９９７年６～９月在长白山天池火山区布设了数字化流动地震观测台网,对长白山火山地震活动进行了近震源观测,获取了大量与火山活动相关的地震信息。通过本次观测及资料处理,对长白山火山地震及其所反映出的应力状态有了一定的认识,为长白山火山活动研究提供了科学依据。     

航磁ΔT解析信号确定线性构造隐伏形态的算法及阿尔金的应用

本文研究了模拟线性地质构造具有普遍意义的有限延深薄板状体ΔＴ的解析信号强度与其几何参数之间的超定方程关系,运用奇异值分解和广义逆技术求解超定方程,获得了高精度的理论反演方法,同时给出了定性解释板状体产状的辅助方法。对阿尔金地区隐伏断裂形态的反演结果,为西藏地体的“北推东移”提供了定量化的地球物理解释证据。文章还勾画了阿尔金与塔里木的深部界线。     

遗传规划在岩石力学中的应用

本文探讨了遗传规划这一新的优化方法在岩石力学参数确定中的应用。由于影响岩石力学性能的各因素之间关系不明确,而遗传规划特别适用于各影响因素之间因果关系不明确的复杂非线性问题。它为预测岩石力学性能提供了一条新的技术途径。通过例子,说明该方法的实用性。     

灰色聚类与圈闭优选

含油气圈闭系统是一种信息不完全的灰色系统,赖以评价圈闭系统的各项参数的原始获取和定量化过程都具有很大的不确定性,也就是说,这些评价参数都是灰参数,灰色聚类恰恰是解决这种确定性差的多参数评价问题。文中探讨了白化函数的构造方法,指出针对不同约束性能参数,白化参数的构造方式也应区别对待,并提出一种对比隶属函数方法,可以对多个圈闭进行严格的优劣排序,结果令人满意。     

储层水动力学数值模拟系统的研究及应用

油气在盆地中产生和运移过程中,水动力因素起着重要的控制作用［１］,如何确定这一作用的实际影响,是一个值得研究的问题。通过数学推导,得出储层中的稳态油层和非稳态油层两种情况下的水动力理论模型,并且对水动力圈闭、深度－压力系统和流体势等作出理论模拟,将其用于油气勘探中,结果与实际情况较相符。     

The regional dynamical model of the atmospheric ozonosphere

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各向异性介质中的AVO

分析了横向各向同性和方位各向异性介质的本构关系,由此讨论弹性波在两种各向异性介质中的传播特点,提出可表征这两种介质各向异性程度的广义参数．以此为基础讨论了两种各向异性介质中存在水平界面时的反射系数近似式,将Dely等人推导的横向各向同性介质中的反射系数公式推广到方位各向异性介质的主轴方向上．根据算例讨论修正的Banik和Thomsen的近似式,着重分析两种各向异性介质中的AVO关系及其对实际勘探的影响和指导意义．     

Simulation of the spatio‐temporal extent of groundwater flooding using statistical methods of hydrograph classification and lumped parameter models

This article presents the development of a relatively low cost and rapidly applicable methodology to simulate the spatio‐temporal occurrence of groundwater flooding in chalk catchments. In winter 2000/2001 extreme rainfall resulted in anomalously high groundwater levels and groundwater flooding in many chalk catchments of northern Europe and the southern United Kingdom. Groundwater flooding was extensive and prolonged, occurring in areas where it had not been recently observed and, in places, lasting for 6 months. In many of these catchments, the prediction of groundwater flooding is hindered by the lack of an appropriate tool, such as a distributed groundwater model, or the inability of models to simulate extremes adequately. A set of groundwater hydrographs is simulated using a simple lumped parameter groundwater model. The number of models required is minimized through the classification and grouping of groundwater level time‐series using principal component analysis and cluster analysis. One representative hydrograph is modelled then transposed to other observed hydrographs in the same group by the process of quantile mapping. Time‐variant groundwater level surfaces, generated using the discrete set of modelled hydrographs and river elevation data, are overlain on a digital terrain model to predict the spatial extent of groundwater flooding. The methodology is applied to the Pang and Lambourn catchments in southern England for which monthly groundwater level time‐series exist for 52 observation boreholes covering the period 1975–2004. The results are validated against observed groundwater flood extent data obtained from aerial surveys and field mapping. The method is shown to simulate the spatial and temporal occurrence of flooding during the 2000/2001 flood event accurately. British Geological Survey © NERC 2011. Hydrological Processes © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Three‐parameter discontinuous distributions for hydrological samples with zero values

A consistent approach to the frequency analysis of hydrologic data in arid and semiarid regions, i.e. the data series containing several zero values (e.g. monthly precipitation in dry seasons, annual peak flow discharges, etc.), requires using discontinuous probability distribution functions. Such an approach has received relatively limited attention. Along the lines of physically based models, the extensions of the Muskingum‐based models to three parameter forms are considered. Using 44 peak flow series from the USGS data bank, the fitting ability of four three‐parameter models was investigated: (1) the Dirac delta combined with Gamma distribution; (2) the Dirac delta combined with two‐parameter generalized Pareto distribution; (3) the Dirac delta combined with two‐parameter Weibull (DWe) distribution; (4) the kinematic diffusion with one additional parameter that controls the probability of the zero event (KD3). The goodness of fit of the models was assessed and compared both by evaluation of discrepancies between the results of both estimation methods (i.e. the method of moments (MOM) and the maximum likelihood method (MLM)) and using the log of likelihood function as a criterion. In most cases, the DWe distribution with MLM‐estimated parameters showed the best fit of all the three‐parameter models. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

广西山地风能资源开发利用可行性分析——以大容山为例

利用大容山自动观测站2004年8月～2006年7月气象观测资料和容县气象站1958～2006年7月测风资料,对大容山的风能资源各参数进行了详细计算和分析,并结合预选风电场的地形地貌、交通运输、联网条件、环境保护等状况对大容山风能资源开发利用进行了可行性分析评价.结果表明：大容山年平均风速为7.2m/s,年平均风功率密度为390.8W/m^2,其风能资源丰富,且交通运输、联网、工程地质等条件较好,可选择在坡度较小的山头或山腰建设风电场,预选风电场可布置750kW的风机45台,总装机容量约为34MW.